War with Iran inevitable?

[dead0man]

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"We had thought this would wait until after the US election next year, but now we are not so sure."...that line makes me think it's been the plan all along, we (the west) have just been trying to avoid it as hard as we can for as long as we can.  The peaceniks and the anti-Semites won't like this.

[bullmoose88]

Not good.  Odds Israel ends up shecking a nuke tipped Jericho?

[dead0man]

Not likely.  I doubt they'd start out that way at least.  Probably a squadron of F15s carrying a lot of bunker busters supported by a jamming bird using S.Arabian airspace.

[bullmoose88]

Not likely.  I doubt they'd start out that way at least.  Probably a squadron of F15s carrying a lot of bunker busters supported by a jamming bird using S.Arabian airspace.

Sounds like the Israelis and the Saudis will sort of be on the same side...that's gonna be interesting...

[dead0man]

Most people in the region don't like Iran...actually nobody likes Iran except those being paid off by Iran (Syria, Hezzbolah, etc) and those selling sh**t to Iran (Russia, PRC) and they don't like 'em all that much.  India goes both ways (but that's always true about India).

[© tweed]

nobody likes Iran except those being paid off by Iran (Syria, Hezzbolah, etc) and those selling sh**t to Iran (Russia, PRC)

that's how the whole world works, deadman.

[Platypus]

I'd be highly surprised if there was a ground war any time soon. More likely a near-total heavy bombing of military sites and a couple of governmental ones thrown in and then a peace.

[dead0man]

That's what the article says and that's what makes the most sense.  Invading Iran with massive amounts of boots on the ground would be several times harder to do than Iraq was.  Iran has like, mountains and stuff.

[phk]

An invasion of Iran may be more acceptable to the Muslim masses than Iraq.

[ag]

An invasion of Iran may be more acceptable to the Muslim masses than Iraq.

Not if it is sparked by an Israeli attack.

[GMantis]

There are certainly indications for that (apart from those described in the article, there were the recent allegations of Iranian plans to assassinate the Saudi ambassador in the US) and with the occupation of Iraq seemingly over, the US military can focus on another project. Not exactly the best thing to do in the middle of a recession, but sometimes a short victorious war is what a struggling administration needs to be reelected (though it's quite likely that it won't be that victorious).

[patrick1]

I think this really has to be handled regionally and with little to no involvement of the US.  I am not informed enough but from what I can gather I don't think the regime has an iron grip on power. We shouldn't alienate or undercut the opposition elements by engaging in any military campaign. After the last decade, and with our economic situation, we really need to start a transition to soft power. Covertly fund the opposition and stay in the background if others go for military action. 

[Yelnoc]

There are certainly indications for that (apart from those described in the article, there were the recent allegations of Iranian plans to assassinate the Saudi ambassador in the US) and with the occupation of Iraq seemingly over, the US military can focus on another project. Not exactly the best thing to do in the middle of a recession, but sometimes a short victorious war is what a struggling administration needs to be reelected (though it's quite likely that it won't be that victorious).

How cynical.  What was Obama's campaign slogan?  Oh I remember, Change

...

bleh

[patrick1]

There are certainly indications for that (apart from those described in the article, there were the recent allegations of Iranian plans to assassinate the Saudi ambassador in the US) and with the occupation of Iraq seemingly over, the US military can focus on another project. Not exactly the best thing to do in the middle of a recession, but sometimes a short victorious war is what a struggling administration needs to be reelected (though it's quite likely that it won't be that victorious).

How cynical.  What was Obama's campaign slogan?  Oh I remember, Change

...

bleh

Are you agreeing with gmantis that the Obama administration has wag the dog designs?

[Yelnoc]

There are certainly indications for that (apart from those described in the article, there were the recent allegations of Iranian plans to assassinate the Saudi ambassador in the US) and with the occupation of Iraq seemingly over, the US military can focus on another project. Not exactly the best thing to do in the middle of a recession, but sometimes a short victorious war is what a struggling administration needs to be reelected (though it's quite likely that it won't be that victorious).

How cynical.  What was Obama's campaign slogan?  Oh I remember, Change

...

bleh

Are you agreeing with gmantis that the Obama administration has wag the dog designs?

I don't know quite what to think right now.  But I wouldn't doubt it.

[Lief 🗽]

If it is indeed inevitable, it is only because aggressive states like Israel and the USA want it to be.

[GMantis]

There are certainly indications for that (apart from those described in the article, there were the recent allegations of Iranian plans to assassinate the Saudi ambassador in the US) and with the occupation of Iraq seemingly over, the US military can focus on another project. Not exactly the best thing to do in the middle of a recession, but sometimes a short victorious war is what a struggling administration needs to be reelected (though it's quite likely that it won't be that victorious).

How cynical.  What was Obama's campaign slogan?  Oh I remember, Change

...

bleh

Are you agreeing with gmantis that the Obama administration has wag the dog designs?

I did not say that, but there are indications. And it would follow the pattern of previous administrations.

[The Mikado]

War with Iran is very, very evitable.  (My spellcheck doesn't think "evitable" is a word)

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

War with Iran is very, very evitable.  (My spellcheck doesn't think "evitable" is a word)

Your spellcheck is correct, it is "évitable". .

Les accents passent souvent à l'as sur Internet...

My US one doesn't like 'spellcheck' though.

Most people in the region don't like Iran...actually nobody likes Iran except those being paid off by Iran (Syria, Hezzbolah, etc) and those selling sh**t to Iran (Russia, PRC) and they don't like 'em all that much.  India goes both ways (but that's always true about India).

lol, just 'Russia, China, and eventually India', no problem...

And, ironically, Syria would be the only spot in which Iran wouldn't be liked, at least if you believe the revolution slogans, they seem damned fed up to be taken in hostages in that chess game about which they don't care in the 1st place. And if you try to go behind 'it's well known! Sunnis/Arabs hate Persians/Shiahs!' and try to look at the record of Ahmadinejad years, you could figure out that the Iranian regime had precisely been for the classical so called 'Arab Street' something looked quite positively since they were the only one in the Muslim world to express a strong anti-imperialism toward US and a strong defiance toward Israel, while Arabs knew very well their regimes was toys into the hands of Americans and Israelis. So much glorious regimes which took the precaution to diffuse the most anti-semitism possible within their borders to try to buy people up, which makes that you can have significant proportions of young Arab males who's been given all the Iranian propaganda about Jews/Israel. An Egyptian guy whom I know who is the opposite of a hater and far to be the most ignorant guy of his country asked me totally naive questions about the veracity of some good old things about Jews, some of which you could hear in Germany in 1930s.

And then amongst other things, Mubarak, big friend of Israel and the US, had a State TV of which the biggest show was the adaptation of one of the biggest anti-semite book ever if I believe its reputation 'The protocols of the Elders of Zion'. And USA, in their grand enlightenment and wisdom funded and armed that pressure cooker that Mubarak's Egypt was...

But for the luck of everybody the youth of those countries showed they cared far more of their sake and the sake of their countries than of the hatred that people try distill all over the region for the sake of some giant chess games.

Iran has supported those revolutions, but Arabs are not stupid, and they anyhow have seen how it dealt with revolt in its own country, then yeah, people in Arab world wouldn't be fond of the Iranian regime, but they are not really fond of US imperialism and Israel behavior either, and while the Iraq affair is slowly going down in past years nowadays, and just after that it could look credible some Western countries acted to actually help a Muslim country in the 1st place with Libya, maybe it's not the time to waste all of this with a, yeah, very évitable military operation in Iran.

Let this regime die by itself. No matter whether they would actually be having a nuclear program. Next elections are in 2 years, the Ahmadinejad/Revolutionary Guards side seems to be more and more fragile within the regime (and this even the very hackish French speaking Israeli TV channel you can have here on several triple-play offers 'Guysen TV' which uses to be very and daily  'Iran is dangerous!!' publish things that go in that way, which for me is telling). The last sanctions have actually been very tough, which would make more and more parts of the population defiant toward the regime if only for economical reasons, for example since the last presidential elections you sometimes had some protest coming from the representants of Tehran's Bazaar which if I believe commentators is quite telling in term of importance. The Revolutionary Guard also has a lot of economical interest at stakes. While I thought there shouldn't have been a siege against the population of this country by so tough sanctions and while you can question the legitimacy of it, it anyways led to such a situation. All of this in a country of which we have seen the energy of the youth to take an other direction and which never stopped to try all kinds of protest they could since last presidential elections, regardless of the very nasty and silent repression they can have to deal with.

Then, maintain an economical pressure, not a too tough one to let the population breath but a tough enough one to make them think international community won't let the country breath till those guys will be at work in the regime, speak of military threat if you want still to maintain the population in that scheme of thought, but the less possible, in order not to show stupid aggressiveness but only firmness. And nothing more. Wait next elections.

Otherwise.

Otherwise you could certainly think that Iran will put to execution all the threats they spoke about when the 1st Israeli bomb will hurt their soil. Hitting the most they could in Israel, hitting the most US interests/troops/military targets in the Gulf, if KSA opens its skies to Israeli planes Iran would certainly love to find here a pretext to try to screw the huge Saudi facilities, and no matter what KSA does, in such a case Iran knows they would have nothing to lose, it would be their 'final battle', and with Ahmadinejad, and maybe with Khamenei, we are with people who seem to be genuinely messianic and apocalyptic, that is believing that anyhow a guy will come down the sky to save them from the attack of the devil of which maybe they would love to be the victim, so you can think they could put the most fire possible in the most numerous possible ways in the whole Gulf, that is in the place by which 50% of global oil passes.

Then, one US/Israeli bomb on this soil, and here we could go, let's say Iran can provide only week of resistance to a very important air bombing of the country by an Israeli/Western coalition (which would be a very short prevision) and it might be enough to turn the place by which 50% of oil goes into an hell.

I let you imagine the consequences on the economy only, especially nowadays.

Then you can also enjoy to imagine all other consequences that could come out of it. Hezbollah and Hamas could open a lot of fires on Israeli civilians, Syria could use it to open a war against Israel too and then maybe screwing or making the revolution there still harder, and if Israel enters into war with Syria and/or Lebanon (currently into Syrian hands) and especially if it begins to bomb Gaza again to counter an eventual massive attack from Hamas, you can wonder how an eventually freshly elected Egyptian govt coming out of the revolution would react and use the army after they have seen their country not moving during the bombing of Gaza in 2008/2009, or maybe even the army itself could decide to act even if it isn't under the control of a govt coming from some elections in order to show they are with the population and not the Israeli/US puppet they used to be anymore. And indeed all of this would give some water to all extremists in all Arab countries who could try to benefit of this in their own countries. And, last but not least, if KSA appears as giving a hand in one way or an other to such an hazardous thing, and especially if they see parts of their country destroyed because of it, it could give still more weight to extremists in this country too. Some people who traveled to KSA during Ahmadinejad years said the admiration they have seen amongst the Saudi elite for Ahmadinejad regardless of the 'good old enemy' that it remains, it would be quite fed up to see its country be used like a toy by the US, especially here which would clearly be for Israel, and this in a revolutionary context in the Arab world, who knows on the long term the consequences of this could be turning KSA, and further maybe the whole Gulf, clearly against USA/West, and who knows if some extremists take over this place they could use its money to try to destabilize borning Arab democracies too to play the 'War of Civilizations/Religions' again...

Beyond the question of its legitimacy, a war there is not only évitable, it would be totally irresponsible.

Then: DON'T TOUCH IRAN!

[Silent Hunter]

I can think of a few people who would prefer a war with Iran like you've described to Iran with a nuclear bomb.

[Silent Hunter]

short victorious war

You know, it's surprising how many wars intended to be "short and victorious" turn out to be anything but for the aggressor.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

I can think of a few people who would prefer a war with Iran like you've described to Iran with a nuclear bomb.

Hmm, one of the points of this post was precisely to try to show that this regime would die by itself in a short enough time, that is without the time to be an actual nuclear threat, which might be preferable than seeing the global economy still more destabilized and than maybe putting some mess in the whole Middle-East for the short to long term, and than to hear the good old 'Christians and Jews are at it again again against Muslims', but hey, it's up to each people.

[Silent Hunter]

Indeed, it could well do and that would be preferable for everyone. However, history isn't like that. People didn't give the Soviet Union five years when it was formed. Predictions of the future tend to end up way off the mark.

Today's the 22nd anniversary of the fall of the Berlin Wall. If at the start of 1989, you'd have predicted that, people would have laughed at you. Ditto Gaddafi and 2011.

My point is that if the options were only a nuclear Iran and a Middle Eastern war, a lot of people might well prefer the latter.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

Indeed, it could well do and that would be preferable for everyone. However, history isn't like that. People didn't give the Soviet Union five years when it was formed. Predictions of the future tend to end up way off the mark.

Amusing you took Soviet Union as example, when I look at the Iranian regime, it precisely gives me the impress of the dying Soviet regime. Well, I argued my point, between something with possibly totally crazy consequences on maybe the long term, and the eventuality that Iran could build nukes and be able to put some on long range missiles in 2 years while those who are interested in it have big international obstacles at several levels and would be clearly in weak position in their own regime, yes, people will 'choose' their concern, their strategy...