If the European Union had an electoral college

[Duke David]

... conceptualized like the original in the US its electors would be allocated as follows:



The total number of electors would be 489 (435 + 27 • 2).


PS: Does anyone know how to upload bitmaps in higher quality?

[RI]

Just save it as a .png file.

[Duke David]

Just save it as a .png file.

It's at least a little better.

But yet thx for the tip.

[Zarn]

Any ideas on what would be "swing states?"

[Mr. Morden]

Any ideas on what would be "swing states?"

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=23416.0

[Gustaf]

It depends a lot on where the dividing lines would go. On a general left-right spectrum you would see Eastern Europe and the British Isles being the most to the right, while Western contintental Europe would be more to the left. Of course, on social issues Northern Europe is more socially progressive while Southern and Eastern Europe is more conservative.

And then there is the federalist issue where Northern Europe tends to be more skeptic towards Brussels with Southern Europe being more federalist and Eastern Europe being a confusing mix.

This is further made problematic by the fact that the mainstream right in most EU countries is the most pro-EU while the far-right is typically the most opposed. The left is anti-EU historically in Northern Europe but not in Southern Europe.

My main bet would be a more federalist leftist party against a more states rights oriented right-wing party. The latter would be strong in Eastern Europe and the UK. The former would dominate in Western Europe. I think Germany and Scandinavia might be somewhat swingy in that context.

[Yelnoc]

245 Electoral Votes to win.  So the least number of nations needed to win is 5; Germany, France, the UK, Italy, and then Netherlands (for a total of 245 EVs).

[Duke David]

245 Electoral Votes to win.  So the least number of nations needed to win is 5; Germany, France, the UK, Italy, and then Netherlands (for a total of 245 EVs).

It's approximately the same quorum as in the US:
There you must win at least 21.6% of all states (+ D.C.) to receive a majority in the EC;
here you would need at least 18.5% of all countries to win.

[GMantis]

It depends a lot on where the dividing lines would go. On a general left-right spectrum you would see Eastern Europe and the British Isles being the most to the right, while Western contintental Europe would be more to the left. Of course, on social issues Northern Europe is more socially progressive while Southern and Eastern Europe is more conservative.

Eastern Europe is not an economically conservative region. One must not always assume that what politicians do is what their voters want.

[Gustaf]

It depends a lot on where the dividing lines would go. On a general left-right spectrum you would see Eastern Europe and the British Isles being the most to the right, while Western contintental Europe would be more to the left. Of course, on social issues Northern Europe is more socially progressive while Southern and Eastern Europe is more conservative.

Eastern Europe is not an economically conservative region. One must not always assume that what politicians do is what their voters want.

I'm not really sure how that matters though. If they're getting elected on those platforms today, why wouldn't they be in this hypothetical?

I'm thinking of it as a version of the American South.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

It depends a lot on where the dividing lines would go. On a general left-right spectrum you would see Eastern Europe and the British Isles being the most to the right, while Western contintental Europe would be more to the left. Of course, on social issues Northern Europe is more socially progressive while Southern and Eastern Europe is more conservative.

Eastern Europe is not an economically conservative region. One must not always assume that what politicians do is what their voters want.

I'm not really sure how that matters though. If they're getting elected on those platforms today, why wouldn't they be in this hypothetical?

I'm thinking of it as a version of the American South.

Would the Dixie elect transsexual MP as well as openly gay MP, like we did less than a month ago?

[Gustaf]

It depends a lot on where the dividing lines would go. On a general left-right spectrum you would see Eastern Europe and the British Isles being the most to the right, while Western contintental Europe would be more to the left. Of course, on social issues Northern Europe is more socially progressive while Southern and Eastern Europe is more conservative.

Eastern Europe is not an economically conservative region. One must not always assume that what politicians do is what their voters want.

I'm not really sure how that matters though. If they're getting elected on those platforms today, why wouldn't they be in this hypothetical?

I'm thinking of it as a version of the American South.

Would the Dixie elect transsexual MP as well as openly gay MP, like we did less than a month ago?

Well, the Polish right is certainly a lot to the right of anything in Sweden on gay rights. I was being slightly facetious though. The point is merely that on average attitudes in Eastern Europe are clearly more socially conservative than they are in at least Northern Europe.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

It depends a lot on where the dividing lines would go. On a general left-right spectrum you would see Eastern Europe and the British Isles being the most to the right, while Western contintental Europe would be more to the left. Of course, on social issues Northern Europe is more socially progressive while Southern and Eastern Europe is more conservative.

Eastern Europe is not an economically conservative region. One must not always assume that what politicians do is what their voters want.

I'm not really sure how that matters though. If they're getting elected on those platforms today, why wouldn't they be in this hypothetical?

I'm thinking of it as a version of the American South.

Would the Dixie elect transsexual MP as well as openly gay MP, like we did less than a month ago?

Well, the Polish right is certainly a lot to the right of anything in Sweden on gay rights. I was being slightly facetious though. The point is merely that on average attitudes in Eastern Europe are clearly more socially conservative than they are in at least Northern Europe.

First of all, I wasn't referring to the Polish right.

Second of all, you have a point, but things are rapidly changing.

Finally, comparing Eastern Europe to Dixie is... weird.

[Gustaf]

The Catholic voting bloc?

The way I see it the pro-EU left countries are only 206. Old continental EU minus Germany and Austria, plus Cyprus and Greece. Whether the split would be more left-right, to enable them to get Scandinavia, or more pro/anti EU (perhaps letting them get places like Ireland, I don't know.

[Duke David]

Liberal pro European could win The North and The East and Germany making it 288.

Lolwut?

The European Union is heavily despised and disdained within Germany. 80 - 90% of its inhabitants want to secede from EUSSR.
A pro-Union presidential candidate wouldn't have any chance of winning Germany's electoral votes at all.

[Platypus]

Relatively liberal rightist (pro-business)  pro-Europe Catholic politician would win such election (classical Christian Democrat type).  He could win France, Benelux, Italy, Spain and some Eastern European countries and be electable in Germany. That would be enough. Similar type of leftist candidate could also win (depending on the year). That type of candidate could also get votes from UK and Scandinavia. The nationalist parties would be rather unimportant because they would never win Germany, Spain, France or Italy Portugal or Ireland  (and most of Eastern Europe).

So, Barroso?

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

My interesting idea for an election (early 2012):

Arnaud Montebourg - Socialist People's Party
Philipp Mißfelder - Conservatives
Margrethe Vestager - Liberal Alliance
Klaus Wowereit - Social Democrats
Jolande Sap - Greens

I have an election map made up but I want to see if anyone can guess the fault lines of this election.

[Leftbehind]

No nationalist party?

Der Gerät: any polling evidence for your assertions?

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

No nationalist party?

Der Gerät: any polling evidence for your assertions?

There'd be a plethora of nationalist parties but I doubt that they'd be worth talking about as with an electoral college system they'd have no chance of winning the election and wouldn't be taken seriously so potential nationalist voters would gravitate to the candidate who supports a weaker EU or fits their political lean or is from their home nation etc.

At least that's how I see it breaking down. Maybe a nationalist candidate could eke out a plurality in a few countries (I was thinking the UK or Finland or maybe Greece  would be strong candidates for this occurring).

[afleitch]

I think should such a concept exist, the EU would ensure that where possible, nations were subdivided, perhaps into the Nomenclature of Territorial Units for Statistics (NUTS) classification. There are different levels, but the EU would probably pick something based on Level 1

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/First_level_NUTS_of_the_European_Union

[afleitch]

I am not sure why would they use sub-national regions. Would Åland get its own electoral vote with 25 000 inhabitants.

Curious they have Åland seperate. But the short answer would be of course, no But in general I can imagine that they would use the UK nations/regions and the German Lander for example.

[GMantis]

It depends a lot on where the dividing lines would go. On a general left-right spectrum you would see Eastern Europe and the British Isles being the most to the right, while Western contintental Europe would be more to the left. Of course, on social issues Northern Europe is more socially progressive while Southern and Eastern Europe is more conservative.

Eastern Europe is not an economically conservative region. One must not always assume that what politicians do is what their voters want.

I'm not really sure how that matters though. If they're getting elected on those platforms today, why wouldn't they be in this hypothetical?

I'm thinking of it as a version of the American South.

The voters may have other reasons to vote against left wing parties than just their policies, especially in Eastern Europe. And in most Eastern European countries left wing parties have been often elected to office.

It depends a lot on where the dividing lines would go. On a general left-right spectrum you would see Eastern Europe and the British Isles being the most to the right, while Western contintental Europe would be more to the left. Of course, on social issues Northern Europe is more socially progressive while Southern and Eastern Europe is more conservative.

Eastern Europe is not an economically conservative region. One must not always assume that what politicians do is what their voters want.

I'm not really sure how that matters though. If they're getting elected on those platforms today, why wouldn't they be in this hypothetical?

I'm thinking of it as a version of the American South.

Would the Dixie elect transsexual MP as well as openly gay MP, like we did less than a month ago?

Well, the Polish right is certainly a lot to the right of anything in Sweden on gay rights. I was being slightly facetious though. The point is merely that on average attitudes in Eastern Europe are clearly more socially conservative than they are in at least Northern Europe.

Eastern Europe is not Poland, you know.

[Duke David]

My interesting idea for an election (early 2012):

Arnaud Montebourg - Socialist People's Party
Philipp Mißfelder - Conservatives
Margrethe Vestager - Liberal Alliance
Klaus Wowereit - Social Democrats
Jolande Sap - Greens

I have an election map made up but I want to see if anyone can guess the fault lines of this election.

Where do you know that needles, inept and dispensable momma's boy called Philipp Mißfelder from?
He's a violent insult to all conservatives. And I say that as a Social Democrat.