Israel general discussion

[Famous Mortimer]

Recently had the pleasure of discussing Israeli politics with a staffer at Haaretz who is also the grand daughter of a former Knesset member.

These were her predictions. I'm wondering what the other Israelis think:

1) Shelly becomes leader of the Labor Party again
2) Ashkenazi and Barak start a new centrist party
3) Bibi stays Prime Minister for another decade, his son (who is a closeted gay) tries to replace him after that.

[DavidB.]

Meanwhile, at the initiative of Shuli Mualem (BY), a new law will be introduced with support from MKs of basically all parties except Meretz: internet porn and "violent content" (which is pretty lol given that this is Israel) will automatically be blocked, though internet users can opt out of this. The bill is supported by MKs from all parties except Meretz. So this is the one time where Meretz proves to be the most pro-soldier party. Very interesting.

[Hnv1]

Meanwhile, at the initiative of Shuli Mualem (BY), a new law will be introduced with support from MKs of basically all parties except Meretz: internet porn and "violent content" (which is pretty lol given that this is Israel) will automatically be blocked, though internet users can opt out of this. The bill is supported by MKs from all parties except Meretz. So this is the one time where Meretz proves to be the most pro-soldier party. Very interesting.

Imprecise, as to the content of the bill and Meretz stand. They support improved conditions for soldiers, legalization of marijuana and other policies that benefit conscripts.

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1. Possible, but not so likely
2. When hell freezes over (it will be a useless brand anyway)
3. The first part might be true, the second will not happen.

Unsurprising really, haaretz has gone off the rails in the past 3 years - there are whole sections of the paper I completely avoid nowadays 

[DavidB.]

Imprecise, as to the content of the bill and Meretz stand. They support improved conditions for soldiers, legalization of marijuana and other policies that benefit conscripts.

That was a joke, referring to the idea that soldiers watch porn...

[danny]

New poll from Reshet Bet:
Likud: 26
Yesh Atid: 21
Zionist Union: 13
Joint List: 13
Jewish Home: 12
Yisrael Beitenu: 8
Kulanu: 7
UTJ: 7
Shas: 7
Meretz: 6

[Hnv1]

Well, new allegations against Bibi's involvement in the procurement of submarines from Germany is proving to be...interesting. This might be the case to crack the dam. Sometimes it's the matter of quantity not quality, and in this multi-billion case we have both.

[Hnv1]

This is starting to look like an actual big time scandal, very delicate politically as Bibi might try calling a snap election now.

[America Needs R'hllor]

This is starting to look like an actual big time scandal, very delicate politically as Bibi might try calling a snap election now.

Yes, something big is happening. Still, I'm not very optimistic- not sure the Attorney General will actually do his job this time instead of ignoring it, and these new fires may consolidate support around Netanyahu because so many believe that the majority of them are terrorist acts.

[SATW]

prayers to you guys in israel. hope  the fires get put out asap. I also hope that the arsonists (no matter how many or little there are) are caught and brought to justice in their individual cases.

[Zanas]

So what's going on in a nutshell, and what are the implications ? You were talking about submarines, and now about fires ?

[Hnv1]

Submarines - allegations about some monkey business done by some attorney who represented the manufacturering German company in getting them the contract. Said attorney is also Bibi's cousin and attorney...some suspicious evidence there and the police are "examining" while not formally investigating yet. This story could reallly gain traction soon, and it seems Bibi is well aware of that.

Fire - a series of wildfires had started in the past couple of days here (and the surrounding countries) due to some peculiar climate conditions. It appears arsonists had a hand in at least some though it's too soon to draw conclusions, yet some politicians already claimed that up to 70% of the fires were perpetrated by Arabs and are a new weapon. It appears like a phenomenon of mass hysteria to me, they arrested some people with a big hoorah and then released some (they arrested one because he had toilet paper in his back pocket). The hysteria was enhanced by the fact that the fire hit the foresty city of Haifa causing tens of thousands to evacuate and burning my IKEA garden shed:(

[ApatheticAustrian]

prayers to you guys in israel. hope  the fires get put out asap. I also hope that the arsonists (no matter how many or little there are) are caught and brought to justice in their individual cases.

as less faith i have in the israeli government, as much faith i have in the israeli justice system.

[Greedo punched first]

Will there be a special celebration when Netanyahu becomes the longest serving PM in history?

[DavidB.]

Another story of sexual misconduct by a religious Bayit Yehudi MK is going to break. It's one of the six incumbent religious MKs and if it were Bennett the story would have blown up already. It's also not Smotrich: in an interview he defended this anonymous person, which will soon not be anonymous anymore. That leaves four: Ben Dahan, Slomiansky, Yogev and Ariel. My bets are on Ariel, because it makes sense for Smotrich (also Tekuma) to defend him. In any case, this would be the second BY MK in two years, after Yinon Magal, to have engaged in sexual misconduct against women. Absurd.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Another story of sexual misconduct by a religious Bayit Yehudi MK is going to break. It's one of the six sitting religious MKs and if it were Bennet the story would have blown up already. It's also not Smotrich: in an interview he defended this anonymous person, which will soon not be anonymous anymore. That leaves four: Ben Dahan, Slomiansky, Yogev and Ariel. My bets are on Ariel, because it makes sense for Smotrich (also Tekuma) to defend him. In any case, this would be the second BY MK in two years, after Yinon Magal, to have engaged in sexual misconduct against women. Absurd.

Surely this is affecting their poll numbers?

[DavidB.]

Another story of sexual misconduct by a religious Bayit Yehudi MK is going to break. It's one of the six sitting religious MKs and if it were Bennet the story would have blown up already. It's also not Smotrich: in an interview he defended this anonymous person, which will soon not be anonymous anymore. That leaves four: Ben Dahan, Slomiansky, Yogev and Ariel. My bets are on Ariel, because it makes sense for Smotrich (also Tekuma) to defend him. In any case, this would be the second BY MK in two years, after Yinon Magal, to have engaged in sexual misconduct against women. Absurd.

Surely this is affecting their poll numbers?

Could be, but far from certain. Who else do you vote for if you're a religious right-winger who is decidedly to the right of Likud yet no Kachnik either, as most BY voters are? I think BY's approval of the impending destruction of Amona may have a bigger impact on their polling numbers.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Another story of sexual misconduct by a religious Bayit Yehudi MK is going to break. It's one of the six sitting religious MKs and if it were Bennet the story would have blown up already. It's also not Smotrich: in an interview he defended this anonymous person, which will soon not be anonymous anymore. That leaves four: Ben Dahan, Slomiansky, Yogev and Ariel. My bets are on Ariel, because it makes sense for Smotrich (also Tekuma) to defend him. In any case, this would be the second BY MK in two years, after Yinon Magal, to have engaged in sexual misconduct against women. Absurd.

Surely this is affecting their poll numbers?

Could be, but far from certain. Who else do you vote for if you're a religious right-winger who is decidedly to the right of Likud yet no Kachnik either, as most BY voters are? I think BY's approval of the impending destruction of Amona may have a bigger impact on their polling numbers.

Point taken.
Which Isreali party has the most fluid voter base?

[danny]

Point taken.
Which Isreali party has the most fluid voter base?

Centre parties, which right now mean Yesh Atid. This is followed by the "major parties" ZU and Likud.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Point taken.
Which Isreali party has the most fluid voter base?

Centre parties, which right now mean Yesh Atid. This is followed by the "major parties" ZU and Likud.

Does Yesh Atid's young base affect this reality?

[danny]

Point taken.
Which Isreali party has the most fluid voter base?

Centre parties, which right now mean Yesh Atid. This is followed by the "major parties" ZU and Likud.

Does Yesh Atid's young base affect this reality?

Yesh Atid doesn't really have a base, if something goes wrong or some other party takes its place, they could go the way of Kadima, Shinui etc.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Point taken.
Which Isreali party has the most fluid voter base?

Centre parties, which right now mean Yesh Atid. This is followed by the "major parties" ZU and Likud.

Does Yesh Atid's young base affect this reality?

Yesh Atid doesn't really have a base, if something goes wrong or some other party takes its place, they could go the way of Kadima, Shinui etc.

What dangers does Yesh Atid face in the short term, medium-term and long term?

[SATW]

The Jewish Home continues to prove it can't control its own members. I like Bennett and Shaked but I dislike the Tkuma faction. I agree with DavidB, Ariel seems the likeliest bet here.

[Hnv1]

Point taken.
Which Isreali party has the most fluid voter base?

Centre parties, which right now mean Yesh Atid. This is followed by the "major parties" ZU and Likud.

Does Yesh Atid's young base affect this reality?

It's their 30-45 medium education voters who trend so volatile

Anyway, my bet is on Nissan "porno mustache" Slomiansky.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Point taken.
Which Isreali party has the most fluid voter base?

Centre parties, which right now mean Yesh Atid. This is followed by the "major parties" ZU and Likud.

Does Yesh Atid's young base affect this reality?

It's their 30-45 medium education voters who trend so volatile

Anyway, my bet is on Nissan "porno mustache" Slomiansky.

What makes the young YA supporters solid-ish, while the middle-aged ones very swingy?
Because YA is the most "hip" party and because some the middle-aged ones are ZU-YA swing voters?

[Hnv1]

Point taken.
Which Isreali party has the most fluid voter base?

Centre parties, which right now mean Yesh Atid. This is followed by the "major parties" ZU and Likud.

Does Yesh Atid's young base affect this reality?

It's their 30-45 medium education voters who trend so volatile

Anyway, my bet is on Nissan "porno mustache" Slomiansky.

What makes the young YA supporters solid-ish, while the middle-aged ones very swingy?
Because YA is the most "hip" party and because some the middle-aged ones are ZU-YA swing voters?

Young people are more ideaological, Most YA voters in recent elections weren't first/second time voters they tend to be more ideaological to the left or the right. YA has their own bloc of young people - the boring, very Zionist proud, but uncomfortable with Likud and right views on social issues, usually hailing from the new colleges as opposed to the old universities.

There's nothing hip about YA, Lapid is universally hated by hipsters and the left.

Young voters are less likely to trend. 30-45 voters who grew up in demise of the old blocs politics are more volatile, young voters are in some way Neo-political