Rate the chances of a Romney win and the chances of an Obama win in 2012

[Lincoln Republican]

Should Romney be the nominee, rate the chances of a Romney win and the chances of an Obama win in 2012.

At this time, I would say

Romney           50/50
Obama            50/50

[Bull Moose Base]

Should Romney be the nominee, rate the chances of a Romney win and the chances of an Obama win in 2012.

At this time, I would say

Romney           50/50
Obama            50/50

Right now it feels like it'd be a toss-up but it'd be affected by many variables still hard to predict now.  Actually, if Romney is presumptive by January, I'd probably say many people will tune out for about 6 months or more.  Easy to forget on a junkie board most people don't pay close attention.  I'd basically ignore polls pre-... August?  I think the advantages of incumbency largely vanish in a bad economy (at least) but in the end, I just don't see people buying what Romney is selling.

[NHI]

Nomination:
Romney 90/10

General:
Romney: 50/50

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Romney is about 75% to win the nomination, up from about 66% a week ago.

I'd put Romney at about 55% to win the Presidency, up from about 49% last month.

[Reaganfan]

I think Romney is the odds on favorite to be the Republican nominee. As far as the general election is concerned, if this were written as a story or script or if someone pitched to you the idea of an incumbent President with these favorable ratings and this economic turmoil, they would predict a re-election defeat on the edge of 350+ electoral votes. However, despite the last six years or so of people being tired with all their political leaders and constantly sweeping them out as fast as they swept them in (Bush's unpopularity immediately following his re-election, 2006 midterms only to be swept out of the House four years later, ect) they tend to be reluctant to change Presidents.

Indeed, one could surmise that we are in for a slew of one term Presidents, with Obama then Romney being the first two. However, after Clinton's miracle re-election, then Bush's re-election, Obama getting re-elected wouldn't seem that out of the realm of possibility. However, things are really bad. I mean, I was only four years old in 1992 so I can't recall having economic discussions with people, but never until now did I sit with people I knew or even complete strangers where we all agreed things are absolutely horrible.

Romney's economic experience and business background will appeal him to many independents and swing voters, and the Republicans will be out as they have been since 2009 in full force. Where is the enthusiasm for Obama? I can tell you right now, if Bush was eligible to run for a 3rd term, I would have probably supported him but he would have lost massively, and my support for him would have been significantly unenthusiastic in comparison to 2004. Obama's turnout will not be nearly as high as it was in 2008, and this whole notion of him trying to pull Arizona and Missouri into his column are insane. Those two states are probably gone, Florida and Indiana are probably gone as well as his strong Nebraska support. New Hampshire may end up being 2012's Indiana with a dramatic shift right, and in the end, if Romney wins New Hampshire, I see him also winning Ohio and Virginia.

Here's Romney's problem. That wonderful electoral outlook results in:

Obama: 283
Romney: 255

North Carolina. Iowa. The three west states. Colorado, New Mexico and Nevada. These states are insanely obsessed with Barack Obama. The fact that Nevada has an unemployment rate of 14% and would be close in a poll between an incumbent President vs. a Republican with business experience in a year that would favor Romney baffles me. If Romney wins one of those western states, it's not enough. He would have to win either North Carolina, or win a combination of Iowa & Colorado, New Mexico & Colorado or Nevada & Colorado. The fact that the Democrats are holding their convention in North Carolina will make it harder to pull the state back to the GOP as well.

Now, most campaigns are close. 1980 was very close. 1988 was close. In late Summer, polls showed Bush at 48% and Dukakis at 46%. 2008 was close. Only towards the end, such as in 1988 and 2008 or the very end as seen in the final days of Campaign '80 does the victor begin to pull away. I could see a scenario where Romney pulls away to win a decisive victory in the electoral college.

[NCeriale]

Here's Romney's problem. That wonderful electoral outlook results in:

Obama: 283
Romney: 255

North Carolina. Iowa. The three west states. Colorado, New Mexico and Nevada. These states are insanely obsessed with Barack Obama. The fact that Nevada has an unemployment rate of 14% and would be close in a poll between an incumbent President vs. a Republican with business experience in a year that would favor Romney baffles me. If Romney wins one of those western states, it's not enough. He would have to win either North Carolina, or win a combination of Iowa & Colorado, New Mexico & Colorado or Nevada & Colorado. The fact that the Democrats are holding their convention in North Carolina will make it harder to pull the state back to the GOP as well.

Now, most campaigns are close. 1980 was very close. 1988 was close. In late Summer, polls showed Bush at 48% and Dukakis at 46%. 2008 was close. Only towards the end, such as in 1988 and 2008 or the very end as seen in the final days of Campaign '80 does the victor begin to pull away. I could see a scenario where Romney pulls away to win a decisive victory in the electoral college.

I agree with everything you say except with NC. North Carolina was the last state to be called in 08, it was practically icing on the cake. They won by a fraction of a percent in '08 and that was the best they will ever do. If New Hampshire moves away (which w/ Romney is already possible if not probable) then I don't know how Obama can win. If everything holds steady (including Obama not dropping or marginal improvement) than this is what I see

If the bottom falls out:

If Romney falters or Obama improves considerably:

If Axe and Plouffe are geniuses and know something I don't

[Politico]

Romney winning the nomination: 99.9/100
Romney winning the presidency: 99.9/100 (1980 again, with Romney crushing Obama unexpectedly after what appeared to be a close race, or 1992 again, with Romney smoothly sailing to victory over the last few weeks)


1980 Redux (Rough sketch with California going to Romney due to depressed Obama turnout from an early call of the election for Romney after numerous closings on the east coast):

1992 Redux (Rough Sketch):

[Bleach Blonde Bad Built Butch Bodies for Biden]

Romney           50/50
Obama            50/50

[President von Cat]

Romney winning the nomination: 99.9/100
Romney winning the presidency: 99.9/100 (1980 again, with Romney crushing Obama unexpectedly after what appeared to be a close race, or 1992 again, with Romney smoothly sailing to victory over the last few weeks)


1980 Redux (Rough sketch with California going to Romney due to depressed Obama turnout from an early call of the election for Romney after numerous closings on the east coast):

1992 Redux (Rough Sketch):

Politico, your repeated and likely deliberate failure to understand the effects of polarization on the electoral college makes it impossible to take your analysis seriously. Romney will never win the west coast, nor will he run the tables in New England, especially Massachusetts.

[Mehmentum]

Well, if Romney is the nomine, the race is a tossup, but Romney might not be the nomine.  In which case Obama will be the heavy favorite (I'd say 80% chance)

Suppose that Romney has a 50/50 chance of being the nomine.

Romney's chance of being elected would be 25%
Obama's chance of being reelected would be 65%
Anybody else's chance of being elected would be 10%

A very crude calculation, but I feel that its about as accurate as one can get this far out.

[Eraserhead]

Should Romney be the nominee, rate the chances of a Romney win and the chances of an Obama win in 2012.

At this time, I would say

Romney           50/50
Obama            50/50

That looks about right to me.

[GLPman]

Nomination:
Romney wins GOP nomination: 80%

2012 presidential election:
Romney: 50%
Obama: 50%

If the current economic climate remains the same with little to no improvement, I'd say something the 2012 election could actually be:
Romney: 60%
Obama: 40%

[fezzyfestoon]

I usually end up relying on my gut feeling when it comes to Presidential elections, which so far has served me well. I had the gut feeling about Bush both times around, Obama was obvious, and this time it's starting to kick in with Obama again. Romney definitely has a good chance, but I'm thinking it's 70-30 in favor of Obama. At this point it's important to remember just how good Obama is at campaigning once he gets going and how awkward Romney is at it. Winning is where Obama excels, so things are going to look very different in all likelihood very soon.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

I think Obama is still in the drivers seat. He won't win by the margin he did in 2008, but I still think he wins.

[Oakvale]

Romney winning the nomination: 99.9/100
Romney winning the presidency: 99.9/100 (1980 again, with Romney crushing Obama unexpectedly after what appeared to be a close race, or 1992 again, with Romney smoothly sailing to victory over the last few weeks)


1980 Redux (Rough sketch with California going to Romney due to depressed Obama turnout from an early call of the election for Romney after numerous closings on the east coast):

Good post. For some examples of the physical effects of this drug, I have provided a handy chart.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

Romney (for the nomination): 75%

Obama: 80%

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

Romney in the primaries: 90/10
Romney in the general: 50.6/50.4

Herman Cain in everything: 999

[NCeriale]

If the economy keeps chugging at the 100,000 plus a month or maybe better, Obama can argue the same thing as one poster's signature. Say the economy was adding 200K+ a month until Republicans forced such deep budget cuts with no millionaires tax etc etc and threatened to blow up the debt ceiling, now that things have finally stabilized, why would you want to give these people entire control of the economy? He needs to argue that he is the dam between the economy and floods of plutocracy. They wanna call him a socialist? Call them Ayn Rand cultists. Especially if he puts 999 on the ticket. Beat em at their game

Romney will still probably win.

[Bull Moose Base]

Romney in the general: 50.6/50.4

Check your math.  (Not just here but also in general if one supports both the GOP jobs plan and reducing the deficit.)

[Politico]

Romney winning the nomination: 99.9/100
Romney winning the presidency: 99.9/100 (1980 again, with Romney crushing Obama unexpectedly after what appeared to be a close race, or 1992 again, with Romney smoothly sailing to victory over the last few weeks)


1980 Redux (Rough sketch with California going to Romney due to depressed Obama turnout from an early call of the election for Romney after numerous closings on the east coast):

1992 Redux (Rough Sketch):

Politico, your repeated and likely deliberate failure to understand the effects of polarization on the electoral college makes it impossible to take your analysis seriously. Romney will never win the west coast, nor will he run the tables in New England, especially Massachusetts.

You just don't get it: Polarization of the Electoral College is so 2000-2008. It was a phase that is over because of the failed economic polices of the Obama Administration. There is going to be backlash against this incumbent (People thought Jimmy Carter was a good guy, too). Whether it is the type of backlash seen in 1992 or 1980 is the only question.

[Thomas D]

Romney wins the nomination- 60/40
Romney beats Obama- 54/46

[m4567]

Obama is beatable, but I;m not certain Romney can win, unless  there's a doubledip. He's slick, but he's not exciting in any way. He's sort of like a Republican John Kerry.

Reagan and Clinton were both more charismatic/exciting than Carter and H.W. Bush.

[RIP Robert H Bork]

California going to Romney due to depressed Obama turnout from an early call of the election for Romney after numerous closings on the east coast

What is this I don't even....

[Psychic Octopus]

Romney win in the primaries? I'll take about an 80% chance at this point. No candidate can compete with him in levels of organization, his closest challenger has no organization and is going on a book tour, and his old rival can't speak coherently.

Romney win in the general? I'm not going to rate this one yet, but I think that it is fairly likely that Obama will be packing his bags and taking the helicopter back to Chicago.

[Eraserhead]

I usually end up relying on my gut feeling when it comes to Presidential elections, which so far has served me well. I had the gut feeling about Bush both times around, Obama was obvious, and this time it's starting to kick in with Obama again. Romney definitely has a good chance, but I'm thinking it's 70-30 in favor of Obama. At this point it's important to remember just how good Obama is at campaigning once he gets going and how awkward Romney is at it. Winning is where Obama excels, so things are going to look very different in all likelihood very soon.

Who would you vote for, Fezzy?