Iowa shows support (if not enthusiasm) for Romney

[Kevin]

Amidst the very deep flaws and general unelectability of many of the other GOP Presidential candidate, Romney's campaign is experiencing increased support in Iowa from potential caucus goers. Although, however it appears to be a more pragmatic move the anything else and enthusiasm for him is lacking overall. 

http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-503544_162-20117617-503544.html

[M]

What is this article? It's a fluff piece. It quotes maybe five people for anecdotal evidence of the mood in Iowa.

Why can't they run another gosh durned POLL in Iowa already? The truth is, nobody knows what's going on there right now.

[The_Texas_Libertarian]

That would be a smart move for the Republicans.  Romney has shown in poll after poll that he is more electable than the others.  He is consistently doing better than Perry in the critical states

[minionofmidas]

Welcome home, M.

In case nobody else has welcomed you back home so far.

[Averroës Nix]

What is this article? It's a fluff piece. It quotes maybe five people for anecdotal evidence of the mood in Iowa.

Reporters are bored with the Cain bubble and "serious" speculation about new entrants is over. They don't know what else to talk about.

(Of course, they could discuss Romney's recent foreign policy speech, or better yet, they could investigate what members of Iowa's political establishment are saying. And some are. But articles like this, which do crop up at slow points in the campaign, are unfortunately common, and aren't really worthy of much discussion or attention.)

EDIT: Looks like some potential members of "the establishment" are actually quoted in the article. But it's not explained why these individuals are especially important, or representative of any larger trend.

[ZuWo]

If Romney is really gaining support in Iowa, this might be the turning point of the GOP primaries. A Romney victory in Iowa would most likely pave the way to his nomination.

[M]

Welcome home, M.

In case nobody else has welcomed you back home so far.

Thank you!

Every 4 years, I get drawn back. Been posting irregularly for eight years now, and counting!

[M]

What is this article? It's a fluff piece. It quotes maybe five people for anecdotal evidence of the mood in Iowa.

Reporters are bored with the Cain bubble and "serious" speculation about new entrants is over. They don't know what else to talk about.

(Of course, they could discuss Romney's recent foreign policy speech, or better yet, they could investigate what members of Iowa's political establishment are saying. And some are. But articles like this, which do crop up at slow points in the campaign, are unfortunately common, and aren't really worthy of much discussion or attention.)

Or they could conduct a poll!

[Averroës Nix]

What is this article? It's a fluff piece. It quotes maybe five people for anecdotal evidence of the mood in Iowa.

Reporters are bored with the Cain bubble and "serious" speculation about new entrants is over. They don't know what else to talk about.

(Of course, they could discuss Romney's recent foreign policy speech, or better yet, they could investigate what members of Iowa's political establishment are saying. And some are. But articles like this, which do crop up at slow points in the campaign, are unfortunately common, and aren't really worthy of much discussion or attention.)

Or they could conduct a poll!

Agreed! Though most reporters aren't pollsters, and know little or nothing about quantitative research methods.

[Bull Moose Base]

What is this article? It's a fluff piece. It quotes maybe five people for anecdotal evidence of the mood in Iowa.

Reporters are bored with the Cain bubble and "serious" speculation about new entrants is over. They don't know what else to talk about.

(Of course, they could discuss Romney's recent foreign policy speech, or better yet, they could investigate what members of Iowa's political establishment are saying. And some are. But articles like this, which do crop up at slow points in the campaign, are unfortunately common, and aren't really worthy of much discussion or attention.)

Or they could conduct a poll!

PPP is polling Iowa or now (or just finished).  Should have results in a couple days.  PPP's last batch of polls were all in Romney-skeptical states (NE, NC, WV) and all showed Cain and Gingrich 1-2 with Perry taking a big hit.  Romney has generally looked stronger in Iowa, probably because he's campaigned there this cycle and last.   I think it's a misperception that he's skipping it.  He's probably just trying to lower expectations and I bet will find a win there too irresistible to not attempt.  But have we seen a statewide poll besides ARG since Romney skipped Ames?  As for what PPP shows, I'll predict an unpredictable race: a cluster of people in double digits, no candidates dominant.

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

What is this article? It's a fluff piece. It quotes maybe five people for anecdotal evidence of the mood in Iowa.

Reporters are bored with the Cain bubble and "serious" speculation about new entrants is over. They don't know what else to talk about.

(Of course, they could discuss Romney's recent foreign policy speech, or better yet, they could investigate what members of Iowa's political establishment are saying. And some are. But articles like this, which do crop up at slow points in the campaign, are unfortunately common, and aren't really worthy of much discussion or attention.)

Or they could conduct a poll!

PPP is polling Iowa or now (or just finished).  Should have results in a couple days.  PPP's last batch of polls were all in Romney-skeptical states (NE, NC, WV) and all showed Cain and Gingrich 1-2 with Perry taking a big hit.  Romney has generally looked stronger in Iowa, probably because he's campaigned there this cycle and last.   I think it's a misperception that he's skipping it.  He's probably just trying to lower expectations and I bet will find a win there too irresistible to not attempt.  But have we seen a statewide poll besides ARG since Romney skipped Ames?  As for what PPP shows, I'll predict an unpredictable race: a cluster of people in double digits, no candidates dominant.

My prediction: Cain, Romney, Paul in double digits and in that order. Each is probably within the margin of error of the one directly above.

[Averroës Nix]

I wouldn't be surprised to see Romney, Perry, Cain, Bachmann, Paul, or Gingrich reaching the double digits. Even for Santorum it's not implausible.

EDIT: From PPP's Twitter:  “Only 3 candidates in double digits on our IA poll- Cain, Romney, Paul. Romney has real chance there, would be crazy not to try”

[Bull Moose Base]

I wouldn't be surprised to see Romney, Perry, Cain, Bachmann, Paul, or Gingrich reaching the double digits. Even for Santorum it's not implausible.

EDIT: From PPP's Twitter:  “Only 3 candidates in double digits on our IA poll- Cain, Romney, Paul. Romney has real chance there, would be crazy not to try”

Modern Bourbon, well done (unless you looked in the back of the book).  The Perry collapse is looking quite spectacular.  Are he, Bachmann and Santorum about to all start attacking Cain???

[Averroës Nix]

Modern Bourbon, well done (unless you looked in the back of the book).  The Perry collapse is looking quite spectacular.  Are he, Bachmann and Santorum about to all start attacking Cain???

I would love to see the GOP's resident stressed-out nervous guy ripping into the charismatic public speaker.

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

I wouldn't be surprised to see Romney, Perry, Cain, Bachmann, Paul, or Gingrich reaching the double digits. Even for Santorum it's not implausible.

EDIT: From PPP's Twitter:  “Only 3 candidates in double digits on our IA poll- Cain, Romney, Paul. Romney has real chance there, would be crazy not to try”

Modern Bourbon, well done (unless you looked in the back of the book).  The Perry collapse is looking quite spectacular.  Are he, Bachmann and Santorum about to all start attacking Cain???

Hold on, we don't know the order yet or the difference. For all we know, Paul and Romney are ahead of Cain.

In terms of percentages, I'd guess no one is above 25%, Cain is probably around 20, Romney at maybe 17(?) and Paul between 10 and 16.

[Averroës Nix]

Hold on, we don't know the order yet or the difference. For all we know, Paul and Romney are ahead of Cain.

They're not listed alphabetically, so it's probably safe to assume that PPP has the candidates listed in order.

[Bull Moose Base]

Hold on, we don't know the order yet or the difference. For all we know, Paul and Romney are ahead of Cain.

They're not listed alphabetically, so it's probably safe to assume that PPP has the candidates listed in order.

Trying to carry on this convo in two different threads!  Nice detective work though.  Cain must be leading.  (And he'd tweet the news if Paul was in first or even second I have to think.  He didn't).  I can't tell if this nomination contest is one of the most boring or exciting ever.  Or I should say, it's fun but I'm afraid all the action will be over once the voting starts.

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

Hold on, we don't know the order yet or the difference. For all we know, Paul and Romney are ahead of Cain.

They're not listed alphabetically, so it's probably safe to assume that PPP has the candidates listed in order.

Oh? Well, I guess my predictive skills are just that awesome, then.