You Cannot Win An Election With Strong Disapprovals Like This

[Reaganfan]

It's still too early to say if Obama can win in 2012 or not.
If the election was tomorrow, it would be a close race if Romney was the nominee.

The thing is, although many Americans dislike Obama as our president, they still like him more than any of the GOP candidates. This is the sentiment I keep hearing from independents. They hate all of the choices. They despise the entire system of governance we currently have, and thus, do not believe ANY of our choices can fix the economy and the jobs situation. This is where we have our problem which will lead to a dismal turnout in the election.

I would guess lower turnout than 2008 if that were the case.

[Wonkish1]

I'm unemployed and recognize that the conservative way of job creating doesn't work, if it did Bush's economy would have been a lot different.

ok, now I'm a little miffed...what are you trying to convince me of, exactly?  That government policy should be liberal enough to transform wasting-time-on-an-internet-forum-discussing-politics into a meaningful career path for you?

I sincerely hope my taxes aren't paying for your 267 posts on this forum in the last 2 months, cause if so, I sure didn't get my tax money's worth.

No I'm not on unemployment.  Sorry to burst your bubble but I'm not like Joe the Plumber and other conservative hypocrites

I'm getting one soon, just had a great interview a few days ago

Good luck with the job. I mean that! And Congrats on the great interview.

[Simfan34]

Obama can't win, but the Republicans can lose.

The only people with lower approval ratings tend to be Republican politicans or Republican organizations/concepts/policies.

[The_Texas_Libertarian]

It's not a vague state.  The conservatives have been talking about how any increase in the top income tax brackets will hinder or stop job creation in its entirety, it is also referred to as socialism/fascism/communism/etc.  All this while simultaneously ignoring the better economy during Clinton than Bush or Obama with the higher taxes and that America was also not a socialist/fascist/communist/etc country under Truman/Eisenhower/Kennedy/etc

Well you see that is more specific.

TXMichael while you seem pretty convinced, you also appear to be a pretty reasonable guy. So would you mind participating in a little exercise on here?

I'm completely open to voting for a Republican.  The problem is they are too conservative now.  That's why I tend to reference conservatives on policy issues instead of Republicans.

With the advent of the tea party most of the Republicans I like are now considered to be an anathema to the conservative base.  Such as Lugar, he is a real leader and I hope he wins reelection.  I'm sure there are plenty of Democratic Senators the Republicans like even though they don't necessarily reflect their views.

Edit:  Thanks for the luck

[Wonkish1]

It's not a vague state.  The conservatives have been talking about how any increase in the top income tax brackets will hinder or stop job creation in its entirety, it is also referred to as socialism/fascism/communism/etc.  All this while simultaneously ignoring the better economy during Clinton than Bush or Obama with the higher taxes and that America was also not a socialist/fascist/communist/etc country under Truman/Eisenhower/Kennedy/etc

Well you see that is more specific.

TXMichael while you seem pretty convinced, you also appear to be a pretty reasonable guy. So would you mind participating in a little exercise on here?

I'm completely open to voting for a Republican.  The problem is they are too conservative now.  That's why I tend to reference conservatives on policy issues instead of Republicans.

With the advent of the tea party most of the Republicans I like are now considered to be an anathema to the conservative base.  Such as Lugar, he is a real leader and I hope he wins reelection.  I'm sure there are plenty of Democratic Senators the Republicans like even though they don't necessarily reflect their views.

Edit:  Thanks for the luck

By the way, by "an exercise" I was referring to a small set of questions on policy not whether or not you were open to voting Republican. Up for it.

[The_Texas_Libertarian]

It's not a vague state.  The conservatives have been talking about how any increase in the top income tax brackets will hinder or stop job creation in its entirety, it is also referred to as socialism/fascism/communism/etc.  All this while simultaneously ignoring the better economy during Clinton than Bush or Obama with the higher taxes and that America was also not a socialist/fascist/communist/etc country under Truman/Eisenhower/Kennedy/etc

Well you see that is more specific.

TXMichael while you seem pretty convinced, you also appear to be a pretty reasonable guy. So would you mind participating in a little exercise on here?

I'm completely open to voting for a Republican.  The problem is they are too conservative now.  That's why I tend to reference conservatives on policy issues instead of Republicans.

With the advent of the tea party most of the Republicans I like are now considered to be an anathema to the conservative base.  Such as Lugar, he is a real leader and I hope he wins reelection.  I'm sure there are plenty of Democratic Senators the Republicans like even though they don't necessarily reflect their views.

Edit:  Thanks for the luck

By the way, by "an exercise" I was referring to a small set of questions on policy not whether or not you were open to voting Republican. Up for it.

What like a questionnaire on policy?  Some sort of formal debate or something?

[Wonkish1]

What like a questionnaire on policy?  Some sort of formal debate or something?

Real simple. An either, or question. Answer. Another either, or question. Answer. Another either, or question. Answer. Explanation. That's probably how it will play out.

[The_Texas_Libertarian]

I'd rather just let discussions on policy just sprout up organically.  I've received too many phone calls from political parties and special interest groups asking those sorts of questions

[Wonkish1]

I'd rather just let discussions on policy just sprout up organically.  I've received too many phone calls from political parties and special interest groups asking those sorts of questions

So I take that is a no? Man I thought you were open minded.

[The_Texas_Libertarian]

I'd rather just let discussions on policy just sprout up organically.  I've received too many phone calls from political parties and special interest groups asking those sorts of questions

So I take that is a no? Man I thought you were open minded.

I've gone through enough of those questionnaires with loaded questions to want to do them for fun.  The most recent was a phone questionnaire by some conservative energy group supporting an oil pipeline from Canada down to Texas

"Do you think gas prices are too high?"
"Do you want more jobs in the U.S.?"

"Congrats!  Support the new pipeline to have more jobs and lower gasoline prices, add more conservative talking points, Democrats want high gas prices, add more conservative talking points."

I don't like those sorts of things on either side, tough luck

[Wonkish1]

I've gone through enough of those questionnaires with loaded questions to want to do them for fun.  The most recent was a phone questionnaire by some conservative energy group supporting an oil pipeline from Canada down to Texas

"Do you think gas prices are too high?"
"Do you want more jobs in the U.S.?"

"Congrats!  Support the new pipeline to have more jobs and lower gasoline prices, add more conservative talking points, Democrats want high gas prices, add more conservative talking points."

I don't like those sorts of things on either side, tough luck

That's not the type of questions I would be asking you.

[The_Texas_Libertarian]

I've gone through enough of those questionnaires with loaded questions to want to do them for fun.  The most recent was a phone questionnaire by some conservative energy group supporting an oil pipeline from Canada down to Texas

"Do you think gas prices are too high?"
"Do you want more jobs in the U.S.?"

"Congrats!  Support the new pipeline to have more jobs and lower gasoline prices, add more conservative talking points, Democrats want high gas prices, add more conservative talking points."

I don't like those sorts of things on either side, tough luck

That's not the type of questions I would be asking you.

Do you really think I was born yesterday?  Hah!

[Wonkish1]

I've gone through enough of those questionnaires with loaded questions to want to do them for fun.  The most recent was a phone questionnaire by some conservative energy group supporting an oil pipeline from Canada down to Texas

"Do you think gas prices are too high?"
"Do you want more jobs in the U.S.?"

"Congrats!  Support the new pipeline to have more jobs and lower gasoline prices, add more conservative talking points, Democrats want high gas prices, add more conservative talking points."

I don't like those sorts of things on either side, tough luck

That's not the type of questions I would be asking you.

Do you really think I was born yesterday?  Hah!

What's the problem? I mean you don't even know what I'm going to ask you. And they're not "loaded" questions I don't lie. I'm assuming the reason you disliked the questions above was because they had assumptions you didn't agree with and didn't account for the fact that they're other motivations than just to increase jobs and lower gas prices, right? Don't worry the ones I was going to ask don't have either of those issues. And they aren't goal oriented questions like those are.

[labred82]

One of the main reasons for this is that both Obama and Clinton have alienated the traditional Democratic working-class base with their "liberal" policies....and that could ultimately cost Obama re-election next year.

[Wonkish1]

What a shame. Don't ever tell me its the Dem activists that are the opened minded ones out there. They're always petrified of ever doubting what they believe so they never put themselves out there.

Its quite sad really.

[The_Texas_Libertarian]

What a shame. Don't ever tell me its the Dem activists that are the opened minded ones out there. They're always petrified of ever doubting what they believe so they never put themselves out there.

Its quite sad really.

I have Republicans in my family who also don't like to answer those loaded questionnaires.  How do you think I get a hold of them?  One of my family members doesn't want them so I asked if I could have them.  

Not a question of doubt, I've simply read too many GOP questionnaires to know exactly where you are coming from.  They lack any true intellectual rigor (same with the ones from the Democratic leaning groups)

[Sbane]

I'm sorry to the Obama supporters on here, but when 43 percent of independents "Strongly Disapprove" not just disapprove of Obama's job performance you just can't expect to pull out a narrow win with whats left.

I don't really think you can find a period of time where a politician was up for reelection with strong disapprovals like this. Basically, what it is saying is that 40% of the country doesn't just want you gone, they hate your guts. Another 10-20% just doesn't like you. And the people on the other side aren't particularly enthusiastic about you.

The margin for error when the country is lined up like that against you is almost to thin that its extremely improbable to make it through a campaign season without losing a little more support because you certainly aren't gaining any more support.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/post/opposition-to-obama-grows--strongly/2011/10/04/gIQAlch2ML_blog.html

If you are talking about likability, look at favorable ratings. Approval ratings are a bit different. If Obama loses, he will become a very popular ex-president, sort of like Jimmy Carter. Count on it.

[Wonkish1]

I'm sorry to the Obama supporters on here, but when 43 percent of independents "Strongly Disapprove" not just disapprove of Obama's job performance you just can't expect to pull out a narrow win with whats left.

I don't really think you can find a period of time where a politician was up for reelection with strong disapprovals like this. Basically, what it is saying is that 40% of the country doesn't just want you gone, they hate your guts. Another 10-20% just doesn't like you. And the people on the other side aren't particularly enthusiastic about you.

The margin for error when the country is lined up like that against you is almost to thin that its extremely improbable to make it through a campaign season without losing a little more support because you certainly aren't gaining any more support.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/post/opposition-to-obama-grows--strongly/2011/10/04/gIQAlch2ML_blog.html

If you are talking about likability, look at favorable ratings. Approval ratings are a bit different. If Obama loses, he will become a very popular ex-president, sort of like Jimmy Carter. Count on it.

Jimmy Carter is not a popular ex president. Most people in this country old enough to have been working at that time consider him to be the worst president they've ever had. Of course Obama seems to want to give Jimmy Carter a run for his money.

[Sbane]

I'm sorry to the Obama supporters on here, but when 43 percent of independents "Strongly Disapprove" not just disapprove of Obama's job performance you just can't expect to pull out a narrow win with whats left.

I don't really think you can find a period of time where a politician was up for reelection with strong disapprovals like this. Basically, what it is saying is that 40% of the country doesn't just want you gone, they hate your guts. Another 10-20% just doesn't like you. And the people on the other side aren't particularly enthusiastic about you.

The margin for error when the country is lined up like that against you is almost to thin that its extremely improbable to make it through a campaign season without losing a little more support because you certainly aren't gaining any more support.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/post/opposition-to-obama-grows--strongly/2011/10/04/gIQAlch2ML_blog.html

If you are talking about likability, look at favorable ratings. Approval ratings are a bit different. If Obama loses, he will become a very popular ex-president, sort of like Jimmy Carter. Count on it.

Jimmy Carter is not a popular ex president. Most people in this country old enough to have been working at that time consider him to be the worst president they've ever had. Of course Obama seems to want to give Jimmy Carter a run for his money.

People don't like Carter personally? Can you prove that?....Actually don't even try.

Now I do understand people don't think he did a good job as President, but that's different from actually hating the man.

Anyways have you noticed the difference between Obama's approval and favorability ratings? The pubbies better not nominate a crazy.....

[Wonkish1]

What a shame. Don't ever tell me its the Dem activists that are the opened minded ones out there. They're always petrified of ever doubting what they believe so they never put themselves out there.

Its quite sad really.

I have Republicans in my family who also don't like to answer those loaded questionnaires.  How do you think I get a hold of them?  One of my family members doesn't want them so I asked if I could have them.  

Not a question of doubt, I've simply read too many GOP questionnaires to know exactly where you are coming from.  They lack any true intellectual rigor (same with the ones from the Democratic leaning groups)

I know what a questionnaire is. I'm not asking you a questionnaire. As I said before its a small "exercise".

Example of an exercise: If I wanted to demonstrate fractional reserve banking to someone he would start with $1,000 in play money he deposits in me the bank, I loan guy B $900 and he buys something who then deposits it back, then to guy A again for $8,100, etc.

That would be an example of an exercise. I wanted to do one with you that was only a couple questions long and pretty easy to do. But I guess you don't want to.

[Wonkish1]

Anyways have you noticed the difference between Obama's approval and favorability ratings? The pubbies better not nominate a crazy.....

Do you see Obama's trend lines? If I was a Dem senator or congressman I would RUN as far away from him as I possibly could.

[President von Cat]

Nope, its not wrong. Crushing Republicans would have done some good, in my opinion. Had Obama raised the debt ceiling on his own, well before the deadline, (or sh**t, had he just done the debt ceiling raise during the lane duck session) we likely would not have seen the stock market go haywire, and it wouldn't have undermined confidence in our political system.

You don't know what your talking about. That wasn't the big issue with the markets. Nor was really the downgrade which S&P already said they were going to do if the US didn't cut to its target. So if Obama would have just raised the debt ceiling S&P would have still just downgraded anyway.

The problem in the markets was still predominately Europe back then, still is now, and Chinese slowdown in manufacturing purchasing and risk of property developers default has been added to the list.

The debt ceiling issue was never that much of an issue for the markets.

Europe has been an issue all throughout the early 2010s. Yet despite trouble in Europe, the stock market did really well in 2010, and continued to increase into 2011. Market turmoil started getting noticeably bad after the debt ceiling debate, and so did all the talk about another recession. Yes, Europe has always shadowed economic outlook here, but if you look at all the leading outlets out there, the overall pervading worry isn't nuts and bolts economic data (which is actually much better than you'd think), but a lack of confidence in the American political system. In other words, we are so polarized that we can't do the right things to fix these problems.

Markets move on feelings, and especially on confidence. When you have a confidence gap, you run into trouble.

The debt ceiling fiasco was the straw that broke that camels back.
 

[The_Texas_Libertarian]

What a shame. Don't ever tell me its the Dem activists that are the opened minded ones out there. They're always petrified of ever doubting what they believe so they never put themselves out there.

Its quite sad really.

I have Republicans in my family who also don't like to answer those loaded questionnaires.  How do you think I get a hold of them?  One of my family members doesn't want them so I asked if I could have them.  

Not a question of doubt, I've simply read too many GOP questionnaires to know exactly where you are coming from.  They lack any true intellectual rigor (same with the ones from the Democratic leaning groups)

I know what a questionnaire is. I'm not asking you a questionnaire. As I said before its a small "exercise".

Example of an exercise: If I wanted to demonstrate fractional reserve banking to someone he would start with $1,000 in play money he deposits in me the bank, I loan guy B $900 and he buys something who then deposits it back, then to guy A again for $8,100, etc.

That would be an example of an exercise. I wanted to do one with you that was only a couple questions long and pretty easy to do. But I guess you don't want to.

For the last time, I'm not playing games of someone who has a blatant political ulterior motive no matter what you want to call it, Savvy?

If you want to make a point just say it.

[Wonkish1]

For the last time, I'm not playing games of someone who has a blatant political ulterior motive no matter what you want to call it, Savvy?

Fair enough. But I'll just repeat the fact that its clearly the Dem activists that don't have an open mind to anything that might put their own beliefs in doubt.

If someone offered this to me, I would take it every time because
A) I have my confidence in my own knowledge and ability to navigate a false assumption that placed in front of me
B) If I was actually wrong about something I would want to know. My allegiance is to the truth not my own party. Yet so many fail to grasp that concept.

[Sbane]

Anyways have you noticed the difference between Obama's approval and favorability ratings? The pubbies better not nominate a crazy.....

Do you see Obama's trend lines? If I was a Dem senator or congressman I would RUN as far away from him as I possibly could.

Uh, yes I have....and it has nothing to do with what I asked you. People might disapprove of his performance as President but you think they hate his guts (talking about independents mostly)? I think people just see him as a little clueless. Like a cute puppy.

You pubbies might have hate in your heart but that's just par for the course.