You Cannot Win An Election With Strong Disapprovals Like This
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  You Cannot Win An Election With Strong Disapprovals Like This
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Author Topic: You Cannot Win An Election With Strong Disapprovals Like This  (Read 36900 times)
Wonkish1
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« on: October 05, 2011, 07:43:07 AM »

I'm sorry to the Obama supporters on here, but when 43 percent of independents "Strongly Disapprove" not just disapprove of Obama's job performance you just can't expect to pull out a narrow win with whats left.

I don't really think you can find a period of time where a politician was up for reelection with strong disapprovals like this. Basically, what it is saying is that 40% of the country doesn't just want you gone, they hate your guts. Another 10-20% just doesn't like you. And the people on the other side aren't particularly enthusiastic about you.

The margin for error when the country is lined up like that against you is almost to thin that its extremely improbable to make it through a campaign season without losing a little more support because you certainly aren't gaining any more support.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/post/opposition-to-obama-grows--strongly/2011/10/04/gIQAlch2ML_blog.html
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20RP12
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« Reply #1 on: October 05, 2011, 07:44:25 AM »

Yet he continues to destroy every Republican except Romney in head-to-head polls.
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Wonkish1
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« Reply #2 on: October 05, 2011, 07:50:34 AM »

Yet he continues to destroy every Republican except Romney in head-to-head polls.

I don't know about "destroy". Most are pretty close and getting closer. But still way to early for polls like that to matter much.
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Ron_Sowell
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« Reply #3 on: October 05, 2011, 08:41:16 AM »

Yet he continues to destroy every Republican except Romney in head-to-head polls.

Name recognition...
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Mehmentum
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« Reply #4 on: October 05, 2011, 08:45:48 AM »

Yet he continues to destroy every Republican except Romney in head-to-head polls.

Name recognition...
Is only relevant if they hold Obama below 50.  In many polls, they don't.
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Pyro
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« Reply #5 on: October 05, 2011, 09:21:38 AM »

It's still too early to say if Obama can win in 2012 or not.
If the election was tomorrow, it would be a close race if Romney was the nominee.

The thing is, although many Americans dislike Obama as our president, they still like him more than any of the GOP candidates. This is the sentiment I keep hearing from independents. They hate all of the choices. They despise the entire system of governance we currently have, and thus, do not believe ANY of our choices can fix the economy and the jobs situation. This is where we have our problem which will lead to a dismal turnout in the election.
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Wonkish1
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« Reply #6 on: October 05, 2011, 09:31:40 AM »

It's still too early to say if Obama can win in 2012 or not.
If the election was tomorrow, it would be a close race if Romney was the nominee.

The thing is, although many Americans dislike Obama as our president, they still like him more than any of the GOP candidates. This is the sentiment I keep hearing from independents. They hate all of the choices. They despise the entire system of governance we currently have, and thus, do not believe ANY of our choices can fix the economy and the jobs situation. This is where we have our problem which will lead to a dismal turnout in the election.

If there is dismal turnout Obama will go down in a landslide because the GOP is going to show up in spades.

All I'm pointing out is that when you have 40% of America that strongly hates you the margin for error is extremely thin. Just think about it the uncle or brother that been sort of a Republican all his life is now hammering you at every family gathering about how bad Obama is. I just don't see swing voters being able to uniformally buck that kind of onslaught over the next year.

At this stand point assuming no worsening of the economy Obama's only shot is to run a near flawless campaign and make next 0 mistakes. That is not easy to do. He pisses off 1 extra group of people and its game over.
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opebo
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« Reply #7 on: October 05, 2011, 09:34:14 AM »

I support him but I expect him to lose.  Then again, I expected him to lose in 2008.
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Ron_Sowell
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« Reply #8 on: October 05, 2011, 09:36:36 AM »

Is only relevant if they hold Obama below 50.  In many polls, they don't.

Well, this early most indepents are either undecided or in favour of the incumbent. When they know more about the challenger, lots of them (both categories) will break for him/her.
So B.O. being just above 50% in those H2H is quite bad.

You got to remember than for 'normal people' (ie not members of this forum), the primary will start in January, most have no idea what Cain/Perry/even Romney are about.
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The_Texas_Libertarian
TXMichael
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« Reply #9 on: October 05, 2011, 09:38:29 AM »

I don't understand bringing up approval ratings this earlier when Reagan had low approval ratings the year before reelection.

Anyone know the approval ratings of
George H.W. Bush
Bill Clinton
George W Bush

At this time before their reelection?
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Miamiu1027
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« Reply #10 on: October 05, 2011, 09:47:06 AM »

I agree with the prevailing point, but Cain would certainly provide us with an interesting lab experiment.
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Wonkish1
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« Reply #11 on: October 05, 2011, 10:39:01 AM »

I don't understand bringing up approval ratings this earlier when Reagan had low approval ratings the year before reelection.

Anyone know the approval ratings of
George H.W. Bush
Bill Clinton
George W Bush

At this time before their reelection?

A few key things about that though:
1) Reagan still had higher approval ratings(mid to high 40s not low 40s, high 30s)
2) Reagan didn't have close to the number of strong disapprovals that Obama had nor do I think that any president has going for reelection
3) Reagan's economy was already improving considerably at this point and was booming by the summer of the election. No reasonable economist is predicting much of an improvement by next November if at all(and some are projecting it to get worse).
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The_Texas_Libertarian
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« Reply #12 on: October 05, 2011, 11:05:54 AM »
« Edited: October 05, 2011, 11:08:54 AM by TXMichael »

I don't understand bringing up approval ratings this earlier when Reagan had low approval ratings the year before reelection.

Anyone know the approval ratings of
George H.W. Bush
Bill Clinton
George W Bush

At this time before their reelection?

A few key things about that though:
1) Reagan still had higher approval ratings(mid to high 40s not low 40s, high 30s)
2) Reagan didn't have close to the number of strong disapprovals that Obama had nor do I think that any president has going for reelection
3) Reagan's economy was already improving considerably at this point and was booming by the summer of the election. No reasonable economist is predicting much of an improvement by next November if at all(and some are projecting it to get worse).

It is easy to make that statement without the numbers, which is what I asked.  Not just for Reagan but for the other recent Presidents as well.  

So does anyone have some real numbers for the past few Presidents at this time in their Presidency?

Plus, Obama obviously doesn't need the kind of reelection Reagan or Clinton had.  Like all candidates he only needs 270 electoral votes
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jmfcst
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« Reply #13 on: October 05, 2011, 11:18:09 AM »

I don't understand bringing up approval ratings this earlier when Reagan had low approval ratings the year before reelection.

Reagan had reached his nadir during the Fall of 1982...but by Jan 1983 (Jan 2011 for 2012 comparison) the economy was rocketing off the launch pad, the stock market having lauched it's great bull run five month earlier in August 1982.

So, by this time in the 1984 cycle, Reagan has 10 months of excelent economic growth that would continue to build for the next 13 months leading up to Nov 1984 while America's power and influence in the world was growing by leaps and bounds.

In contrast, Obama has exactly the opposite going for him...and if the trend continues for another 13 months, history hints that Obama is going to lose in 2012 by a wider margin than he won by in 2008
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Wonkish1
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« Reply #14 on: October 05, 2011, 11:20:08 AM »

Well I read Reagan's numbers at about this time in the cycle about a week ago. So what I posted was accurate.

I'm now debating if I want to spend the next half hour pulling up all those old numbers again for you.

I'm currently splitting my time between reading a few articles, following up on this thread, I have some phone calls to make, etc.

Maybe a little later.
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The_Texas_Libertarian
TXMichael
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« Reply #15 on: October 05, 2011, 11:38:49 AM »

Well I read Reagan's numbers at about this time in the cycle about a week ago. So what I posted was accurate.

I'm now debating if I want to spend the next half hour pulling up all those old numbers again for you.

I'm currently splitting my time between reading a few articles, following up on this thread, I have some phone calls to make, etc.

Maybe a little later.

If you've seen them recently then I don't doubt their legitimacy.  Plus I just remembered that GallUp has a President approval comparison on their website and it shows exactly what you said, that Reagan (and also Clinton) were only a few points above Obama, and that is despite the poor economic conditions right now.
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jmfcst
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« Reply #16 on: October 05, 2011, 11:44:03 AM »

If you've seen them recently then I don't doubt their legitimacy.  Plus I just remembered that GallUp has a President approval comparison on their website and it shows exactly what you said, that Reagan (and also Clinton) were only a few points above Obama, and that is despite the poor economic conditions right now.
 

...and Reagan and Clinto both had strong tails winds to sustain their upward momentum...while Obama is facing galeforce head winds that are about to become hurricane force...
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The_Texas_Libertarian
TXMichael
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« Reply #17 on: October 05, 2011, 11:46:43 AM »

If you've seen them recently then I don't doubt their legitimacy.  Plus I just remembered that GallUp has a President approval comparison on their website and it shows exactly what you said, that Reagan (and also Clinton) were only a few points above Obama, and that is despite the poor economic conditions right now.
 

...and Reagan and Clinto both had strong tails winds to sustain their upward momentum...while Obama is facing galeforce head winds that are about to become hurricane force...

Which is what makes Obama's current ratings all the more impressive, people aren't expecting things to get better anytime soon and yet he is still in the 40s
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Wonkish1
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« Reply #18 on: October 05, 2011, 11:49:54 AM »

Both of them have reasons to have lower approvals around this time.

In the case with Clinton, he took a shellacking in the polls during the government shutdown just as the GOP congress did. But afterward he emerged with some really high numbers.
A) The economy started roaring in 96
B) The media spun the narrative that Clinton had won the shutdown showdown
C) Clinton signed welfare reform

While things were looking a lot better in 83 there were still a lot of negatives in the economy. Inflation was high, but falling fast. Interest rates were high, but falling fast. And Unemployment was still pretty high, but falling fast. In late 82/early 83 many of Reagan's supporters didn't think he would win reelection because of the economy.

In late 83 people looked around and said things are okay, but a lot of things still suck. In mid 84 the average person looked around and said, alright this is pretty sweet.
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President von Cat
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« Reply #19 on: October 05, 2011, 11:56:52 AM »

I'm interested as to why support among independents has eroded this much in 2011.

My immediate conclusion is:

1. The economy seems to be faltering.
2. Obama wasted 2011 with a wishy-washy "don't leave me at the altar" approach on the debt debate, when he should have crushed Republicans.

Not all independents are bland centrists who want compromise for the sake of compromise. This entire debt debate has been a massive distraction and has taken the focus away from jobs.
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Wonkish1
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« Reply #20 on: October 05, 2011, 11:59:50 AM »

If you've seen them recently then I don't doubt their legitimacy.  Plus I just remembered that GallUp has a President approval comparison on their website and it shows exactly what you said, that Reagan (and also Clinton) were only a few points above Obama, and that is despite the poor economic conditions right now.
 

...and Reagan and Clinto both had strong tails winds to sustain their upward momentum...while Obama is facing galeforce head winds that are about to become hurricane force...

Which is what makes Obama's current ratings all the more impressive, people aren't expecting things to get better anytime soon and yet he is still in the 40s

I can assure they are much, much worse than in 83 or 95 and getting worse. The strong disapproval vs. strong approval index is at a level never seen by pollsters in any reelection since they started polling. The enthusiasm gap is atrocious. The economic approval/disapproval is also in the proverbial toilet. Trust me as unemployment starts to rise again he'll be retesting new lows into the mid 30s. This is just the calm before the storm.

And again keep in mind that both Reagan and Clinton had huge surges in their approval ratings because of great economic situations during the actual elections. If there approvals were actually at the mid 40s during reelection they probably would have lost. Clinton definitely, Reagan possibly. Obama's approvals aren't getting better by next Nov. I can assure you of that.
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Wonkish1
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« Reply #21 on: October 05, 2011, 12:04:30 PM »

I'm interested as to why support among independents has eroded this much in 2011.

My immediate conclusion is:

1. The economy seems to be faltering.
2. Obama wasted 2011 with a wishy-washy "don't leave me at the altar" approach on the debt debate, when he should have crushed Republicans.

Not all independents are bland centrists who want compromise for the sake of compromise. This entire debt debate has been a massive distraction and has taken the focus away from jobs.

Number 2 is definitely wrong!!! The reason why independents are ditching Obama is because his economic disapproval is 70%. Its amazing he's not in the mid 30% already on this point alone.

Obama is where he is because people are ticked off that no recovery has happened in 3 years. They are going to be really pissed off when the economy actually does start to fall back more. The difference between these 2 things is the difference between a 41% approval rating(where  he is now) and a 34% approval rating if things start slipping more.
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The_Texas_Libertarian
TXMichael
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« Reply #22 on: October 05, 2011, 12:13:41 PM »

If you've seen them recently then I don't doubt their legitimacy.  Plus I just remembered that GallUp has a President approval comparison on their website and it shows exactly what you said, that Reagan (and also Clinton) were only a few points above Obama, and that is despite the poor economic conditions right now.
 

...and Reagan and Clinto both had strong tails winds to sustain their upward momentum...while Obama is facing galeforce head winds that are about to become hurricane force...

Which is what makes Obama's current ratings all the more impressive, people aren't expecting things to get better anytime soon and yet he is still in the 40s

I can assure they are much, much worse than in 83 or 95 and getting worse. The strong disapproval vs. strong approval index is at a level never seen by pollsters in any reelection since they started polling. The enthusiasm gap is atrocious. The economic approval/disapproval is also in the proverbial toilet. Trust me as unemployment starts to rise again he'll be retesting new lows into the mid 30s. This is just the calm before the storm.

And again keep in mind that both Reagan and Clinton had huge surges in their approval ratings because of great economic situations during the actual elections. If there approvals were actually at the mid 40s during reelection they probably would have lost. Clinton definitely, Reagan possibly. Obama's approvals aren't getting better by next Nov. I can assure you of that.

It's good that you have that time machine to see what November 2012 is going to be like.  Although I do understand the desire of conservatives to see unemployment rise
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President von Cat
captain copernicus
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« Reply #23 on: October 05, 2011, 12:14:02 PM »

Nope, its not wrong. Crushing Republicans would have done some good, in my opinion. Had Obama raised the debt ceiling on his own, well before the deadline, (or sh**t, had he just done the debt ceiling raise during the lane duck session) we likely would not have seen the stock market go haywire, and it wouldn't have undermined confidence in our political system.
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Torie
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« Reply #24 on: October 05, 2011, 12:19:28 PM »

We have a lot of young-uns around here, who just have not lived through as many crazed political cycles as I have I guess. Anyway, you don't see me making many predictions that are not highly, and lawyer-like qualified, as to what the landscape will be like in 13 months!  Smiley
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