Next BIG Swing State?

[TeePee4Prez]

Pennsylvania is the ultimate swing state. And it's not trending Republican, it's just following the national average. Clinton > Gore > Kerry.

PA is VERY tricky.  While the Southeast is trending Democratic, western PA is trending Republican by the day.  A candidate between liberal and populist could win PA fairly easily; however, there is too much to factor in and georgaphic area are changing drastically.  Who would have ever thought in 1988 Westmoreland County would vote Republican and Montgomery vote Democrat?  The respective parties in both counties have virtually collapsed fom sheer dominance in the 1980s. Who knows what will happen.  From what I can tell locally, college students I know that live in Montgomery County, PA are VERY liberal.  I predict the Republicans are virtually screwed there for years to come.  Bucks and Delaware will follow suit in about 10 years.  The question now is will western PA become even more Republican to counter the SE trend?  I don't want to make this another PA-13 thread, but some of the NE Philly trends I didn't like either.  Bush increased his margin in some wards/precincts.  It wasn't much, but as a Dem, it has me somewhat nervous.  My ward lost about 300 votes from Gore to Kerry but gained over 1000 from Bush 2000 to 2004.  Granted Kerry smoked Bush here, but NE Philly could be another wildcard as well.

[TeePee4Prez]

Pennsylvania is the ultimate swing state. And it's not trending Republican, it's just following the national average. Clinton > Gore > Kerry.

PA is VERY tricky.  While the Southeast is trending Democratic, western PA is trending Republican by the day.  A candidate between liberal and populist could win PA fairly easily; however, there is too much to factor in and georgaphic area are changing drastically.  Who would have ever thought in 1988 Westmoreland County would vote Republican and Montgomery vote Democrat?  The respective parties in both counties have virtually collapsed fom sheer dominance in the 1980s. Who knows what will happen.  From what I can tell locally, college students I know that live in Montgomery County, PA are VERY liberal.  I predict the Republicans are virtually screwed there for years to come.  Bucks and Delaware will follow suit in about 10 years.  The question now is will western PA become even more Republican to counter the SE trend?  I don't want to make this another PA-13 thread, but some of the NE Philly trends I didn't like either.  Bush increased his margin in some wards/precincts.  It wasn't much, but as a Dem, it has me somewhat nervous.  My ward lost about 300 votes from Gore to Kerry but gained over 1000 from Bush 2000 to 2004.  Granted Kerry smoked Bush here, but NE Philly could be another wildcard as well.

Montco becomes more Dem, NE Philly becomes more Republican, western PA counties become more Republican....they just keep switching around.

I agree with the first and last statements.  NE Philly is erratic though.  We were solid Reagan in the 80s when western PA was solid Carter/Mondale.  However the coin has flipped and NE Philly voted overwhelmingly Democratic and all but Pittsburgh seems to be GOP engulfed out west. 

One thing is for sure I am surprised Schwartz did so well here for being such an extreme liberal people make her out to be.  I would think that would say something consdiering Brown split the vote in 2002.