Next BIG Swing State?

[Alcon]

I think Nevada will be closest in 2008, but it isn't quite "big."

Pennsylvania earns my vote. Florida and Ohio will probably be pro-Republican by about 1.5, although Ohio depends on the economy, heavily.

Pennsylvania should be about Democrat 0.5.

[Alcon]

California

I abolutely agree and I think that the repubs will take it next time, too!

Wow, uh, why?

[Alcon]

California

I abolutely agree and I think that the repubs will take it next time, too!

Wow, uh, why?

b/c of Ahnold, the (ever so slight) Republican trend, and the fact that polls taken before the election showed the race tighter there than in the end (ie, in Sep. and Aug., good months for Bush, Kerry was only up by a few points in many polls).

That is very much ever-so-slight. Polls also showed it close in New York and tied in Maryland. Polls sometimes suck, and I think this was one of those cases. The final results are much more telling.

[Alcon]

Based on Bush's margin of victory this year, CO, FL, VA are likely safe for 2008.  IA, NM, NV are too smal to count as the big swing state.

I think that Florida's vote was partially affected by the hurricane thing and Bush's reaction, which was handled quite well. If you were to "even out" the country (which I know you can't really do, but still), Bush would have won 50.87-48.32. If it was not for Bush's excellent handling of the hurricane situation, this could have been much closer. I think Florida remains a swing state, but with a tiny Republican tilt.

Colorado was a decent, but not huge win - 5.67 points. Adjusted for national average, this is 3.21. A Republican lean there, easily.

Virginia was, adjusting for national average, 5.74. If the Democrats win this in 2008, they won't need it. Bayh could probably carry it narrowly.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

The lack of linear trending of states is an important consideration in Ohio, a state pounded by job losses. Bush smartly made social issues the major vote. If Bayh is the 2008 nominee and the job market is still poor in Ohio, he will carry it fairly easily. If it is good, it will be a true fight, with a Bayh advantage. Other non-midwestern nominees would have a small advantage if there are major job losses, and have an uphill battle if there weren't.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Kerry sucked profoundly in rural PA. A good midwestern populist like Bayh would do well in Pennsylvania, while any other candidate would make it a Democrat-advantage swing state.