VA: Roanoke College: Obama trails Perry by 2, Romney by 8

[Tender Branson]

New Poll: Virginia President by Roanoke College on 2011-09-22

Summary: D: 40%, R: 42%, U: 18%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[tmthforu94]

Great news for Mr. Mitt!

[Psychic Octopus]

Uh, wow. I'm going to call this one an outlier, though you can never be certain. The poll they did for Allen and Kaine suggests that the former is leading by 3, something that we have not seen at all since the beginning of the race. These results need to be verified.

[Eraserhead]

The GOP has to win Virginia in the general election. Obama doesn't. 

[Roemerista]

Quinnipiac had Perry ahead of Romney head to head, but not by much. Had Perry down 2 against President Obama, and Romney up two. On the 15th. So the Perry numbers seem right to me, but I agree with NiK, Romney's number might be too good...

[memphis]

Virginia is a tough state for the Dems. Has been for so long that the last Dem prez candidate to do better in VA than nationally was FDR.

[The_Texas_Libertarian]

Virginia will be a tough state for the Democrats again.  One win in the past 40 years does not make Virginia a lean D state.  I think we will see this one switch poll after poll until election day

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

Outlier.

[tmthforu94]

Polls have been showing for months that the GOP is doing pretty good in Virginia. It may be a couple points off (remember, there is a margin of error), but I certainly wouldn't call it an outlier.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

I am calling this an outlier until we see another polling firm confirm it. I think Romney is tied or slightly ahead there, but Perry is likely not leading. The GOP cannot afford to get slammed in Northern VA if they want to carry the state, and I simply cannot see Perry playing well there.

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

Looks like they forgot to poll northern VA.

[Torie]

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The understatement of the day. Perry would be slaughtered there.

[pbrower2a]

I am calling this an outlier until we see another polling firm confirm it. I think Romney is tied or slightly ahead there, but Perry is likely not leading. The GOP cannot afford to get slammed in Northern VA if they want to carry the state, and I simply cannot see Perry playing well there.

This entity does few polls. PPP and Quinnipiac will get to Virginia soon enough, and they would never make the mistake of under-polling northern Virginia.

I take this one with a huge boulder of salt.

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

Another thing I'm skeptical about is the sample size.  I find it really hard to take a poll seriously unless it nears 1,000 people or so.

Rick Perry can't win Virginia.  Maybe he could have in 1992, but that state has shifted so much.

[Napoleon]

McDonnell is still talked of as a VP pick and he is pretty popular himself.

[Penelope]

Outlier.

I'd say so. I remember another Roanoke College poll that was ridiculously off. I'll wait for another Virginia poll before I make any judgments.

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

It just occurred to me.  Anyone ever think these polls are off on purpose, for turnout reasons?

[krazen1211]

Looks like they forgot to poll northern VA.

Based on what?

[NHI]

Go Mitt! We'll need Virginia to beat Obama.

[California8429]

WONDERFUL, as long as the results are accurate. Even if they're off by some points, Romney is still leading by some points which is great.

[Miles]

Democrats only made up 29% of the electorate in this poll. Seems kinda low to me.

33% also seems like a fairly low floor for Obama.

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

Looks like they forgot to poll northern VA.

Based on what?

Perry's numbers.

[DrScholl]

The undecideds are too high and the sample they used skews a little more white than the previous couple of electorates.

[Gustaf]

Another thing I'm skeptical about is the sample size.  I find it really hard to take a poll seriously unless it nears 1,000 people or so.

Rick Perry can't win Virginia.  Maybe he could have in 1992, but that state has shifted so much.

The sample size is not really that important. 600 should work well enough.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Another thing I'm skeptical about is the sample size.  I find it really hard to take a poll seriously unless it nears 1,000 people or so.

Rick Perry can't win Virginia.  Maybe he could have in 1992, but that state has shifted so much.

The sample size is not really that important. 600 should work well enough.

I recall a few years ago, that if a sample was over 1,000, it was taken to mean the poll was of terrible quality. Now if they are under that, the standard response is that it should be trashed? I know things have changed since 2006 and 2008, but damn.