A little quiz: "anti-bellwether" states?

[Duke David]

The items listed above are the ten most "successful" anti-bellwether states and regions.

Click on those three states/regions whose inhabitants (or state legislature, respectively) voted for the "wrong" candidate most frequently.

PS: What matters is not the popular vote, but the eventually winning candidate.

___________________________________________________________________________________

Answer:

#49 Mississippi (52,2%)
#50 Alabama (51,1%)
#51 D.C.    (41,7%)


Thanks to everyone who cast their vote.

[CARLHAYDEN]

If you take the Presidential elections from 1964 on, the District of Columbia missed the most.

Alabama, Georgia, Hawaii and Mississippi are tied for second.

[Duke David]

If you take the Presidential elections from 1964 on, the District of Columbia missed the most.

Alabama, Georgia, Hawaii and Mississippi are tied for second.

Nope. I take all elections since 1789.

[CARLHAYDEN]

If you take the Presidential elections from 1964 on, the District of Columbia missed the most.

Alabama, Georgia, Hawaii and Mississippi are tied for second.

Nope. I take all elections since 1789.

Well, the District of Columbia couldn't participate until 1964, while Alaska and Hawaii couldn't participate until 1960.

So, counting elections prior to eligibility really skews results.

[Duke David]

Well, the District of Columbia couldn't participate until 1964, while Hawaii couldn't participate until 1960

Why don't you just click on the right answers?

[CARLHAYDEN]

Perhaps you can advise me as to which of the selections you listed is a "region."

[Duke David]

Perhaps you can advise me as to which of the selections you listed is a "region."

There are 9 states and 1 region. But I don't tell you which.

[Antonio the Sixth]

I'd say DC, MS and SC.

[Duke David]

I'd say DC, MS and SC.

I'll give you a hint:

At least one of your suggestions is wrong.

[Antonio the Sixth]

I'd say DC, MS and SC.

I'll give you a hint:

At least one of your suggestions is wrong.

I was almost sure of that. Getting all three right is almost impossible.

[Duke David]

I was almost sure of that. Getting all three right is almost impossible.

I know what you mean.

It took me much effort and time to ascertain the truth.

[Duke David]

Is it really that difficult? I didn't check, but I'm willing to guess that DC, HI, and AK are the answers.

At least one answer is correct, Averroës Nix.

[Duke David]

LOL
The bars are pretty evenly spread.
Seems to be a hard question.

[DS0816]

… Alabama, Mississippi, and Vermont.

[FloridaRepublican]

In terms of percentages, it's D.C., followed by Alabama, followed by Mississippi.

[Duke David]

… Alabama, Mississippi, and Vermont.

The Vermonters voted relatively often for the losing candidate, but there are at least 10 states that came off worse.

[Duke David]

Well, the District of Columbia couldn't participate until 1964, while Alaska and Hawaii couldn't participate until 1960.
So, counting elections prior to eligibility really skews results.

I hope you know that my results are based on percentages.

[Thomas D]

Alabama, Mississippi and Washington DC.

[Duke David]

Alabama, Mississippi and Washington DC.

Who knows?

[Duke David]

I'm going to announce the solution of this quiz in two weeks.

Till then good guessing!

[Rochambeau jk I'm Hamilton]

Canada!

Seriously, Alabama, Mississippi, and Vermont

[Duke David]

Canada!

Seriously, Alabama, Mississippi, and Vermont

Vermont ranks #40 in the bellwether states list.
And btw, it isn't listed above.

[phk]

A long time ago I calculated correlation coefficients for how closely correlated the changes in the Democratic % nationwide are correlated to changes in the % Democrat for each state.

Of course this is a tad more precise as bellwether since its a "bellwether" to actual changes in movements in the voting habits of the state.

Alabama and Mississippi have opposite correlations largely due to 1964 which is weighing down a lot of the Southern states.

This is 1960 to present.

 PA    0.966067054
 IN    0.95341152
 NM    0.949044516
 MO    0.946832887
 NJ    0.942439247
 MI    0.934318638
 MD    0.933170349
 CO    0.927456992
 NY    0.923773398
 CT    0.919558356
 NE    0.911658126
 DE    0.910226962
 VA    0.910198852
 NH    0.905413893
 WA    0.904983944
 KS    0.901958647
 WI    0.901263071
 NV    0.900218139

OR    0.89605574
 AZ    0.894099031
 RI    0.87412351
 IL    0.872103429
 HI    0.861837923
 CA    0.860305372
 FL    0.857749611
 TX    0.842579042
 OK    0.837252298
 ID    0.833592726
 IA    0.828201135
 ME    0.824423507
 OH    0.81955975
 VT    0.809179288

 MA    0.796208464
 MN    0.794198757
 NC    0.779418497
 MT    0.77638117
 UT    0.768767821
 KY    0.742380603
 AK    0.705862352

 WV    0.684463347
 WY    0.674054027
 SD    0.641501564
 TN    0.631647735

 AR    0.556386947

 SC    0.476540412
 LA    0.455813242
 GA    0.433122723

 MS    -0.128090695

 AL    -0.250714962

[Duke David]

A long time ago I calculated correlation coefficients for how closely correlated the changes in the Democratic % nationwide are correlated to changes in the % Democrat for each state.

[...]

That surely demanded a great deal of you.

Did you use a specific program to compute those coefficients, or did you just use a calculator?

[phk]

A long time ago I calculated correlation coefficients for how closely correlated the changes in the Democratic % nationwide are correlated to changes in the % Democrat for each state.

[...]

That surely demanded a great deal of you.

Did you use a specific program to compute those coefficients, or did you just use a calculator?

Used Excel.

I generally don't recommend manually doing statistics by hand or even by calculator.

Any modern spreadsheet program should be fine.