ARG in West Virginia!

[12th Doctor]

I think this is surprisingly good for Kerry...I still think that he'll lose WV in the end...just like he'll lose OH and PA...and the election...

Gustaf... I really really don’t get why you rate Kerry as doing so poorly in the "steel states"... these are states that have done really badly under Bush... WV and OH  in particular and WV is historically Dem territory added to that Gore won PA by nearly 5%... so why are you so pessimistic?

I've said this time and time again, there are no "Steel States".  PA is not a steel producer anymore.  Steel Unions still exist here, but, politically, they are getting as rusty as the factories that haven't been used in 30 years.  PA is begining to evolve beyond steel and this election will reflect that.

[12th Doctor]

46-46... advantage Kerry!
Undecideds usually split 75% against the incumbent party... especially in West Virginia.

Looking like '88 all over again...

In 2000 the late deciding/undecided broke 2 to 1 for Gore in the last week....

Exactly, I don't know how this myth of undecideds breaking for the challenger ever got started.  Although it is observed in some elections, it is not something that you can bank on.

[Ben.]

WV is the only tossup state on my map.  I don't really know how the people there are going to vote; however, I hope that it's for Kerry.  And why in the heck is MO so strongly in favor of Bush?  That has to be some sort of political tool in the poll department.  Ben, what is it that you have been seeing in MO about feelings towards Bush and Kerry?

I'm sitting here in Missouri right now, and I think that the state has been slowly trending GOP for 15 to 20 years now.  Basically its been becoming more like Indiana or Kansas, and less like Illinois - all kindred states.

Hate to say it but Oepedo is about right… we have a (D) Gov who’s not brilliant but he’s ok, economically we’re doing alright… but we’re becoming less and less of a bellwether IMHO… a foreshadowing of what may happen across the Midwest in the next fifteen years or so… Kerry could play well with the catholic population here and that could help him, it was close here in 2000 and people often forget that… but I’m in the UK at the moment so I don’t have up to date first hand knowledge really… I think that Bond will have a tougher Senate fight than many originally predicted though….Farmer is a good candidate IMHO and could do well… but Bond will win in all likelihood… maybe I should have got my friends to vote for Berry just out of compassion for the guy…      


This from Politics 1: “In Missouri, Rasmusson's new poll shows Bush-49%, Kerry-42%. Bush won MO by 3 points in 2000.”          

[opebo]

WV is the only tossup state on my map.  I don't really know how the people there are going to vote; however, I hope that it's for Kerry.  And why in the heck is MO so strongly in favor of Bush?  That has to be some sort of political tool in the poll department.  Ben, what is it that you have been seeing in MO about feelings towards Bush and Kerry?

I'm sitting here in Missouri right now, and I think that the state has been slowly trending GOP for 15 to 20 years now.  Basically its been becoming more like Indiana or Kansas, and less like Illinois - all kindred states.

Hate to say it but Oepedo is about right… we have a (D) Gov who’s not brilliant but he’s ok, economically we’re doing alright… but we’re becoming less and less of a bellwether IMHO… a foreshadowing of what may happen across the Midwest in the next fifteen years or so… Kerry could play well with the catholic population here and that could help him, it was close here in 2000 and people often forget that… but I’m in the UK at the moment so I don’t have up to date first hand knowledge really… I think that Bond will have a tougher Senate fight than many originally predicted though….Farmer is a good candidate IMHO and could do well… but Bond will win in all likelihood… maybe I should have got my friends to vote for Berry just out of compassion for the guy…      


This from Politics 1: “In Missouri, Rasmusson's new poll shows Bush-49%, Kerry-42%. Bush won MO by 3 points in 2000.”          

Ben, good analysis of our homestate.  I just got back two weeks ago from 7 months in Thailand, so I'm not exactly up to date on the local 'feel'.  I guess we both like to be From here more than to be here eh?

[Ben.]

WV is the only tossup state on my map.  I don't really know how the people there are going to vote; however, I hope that it's for Kerry.  And why in the heck is MO so strongly in favor of Bush?  That has to be some sort of political tool in the poll department.  Ben, what is it that you have been seeing in MO about feelings towards Bush and Kerry?

I'm sitting here in Missouri right now, and I think that the state has been slowly trending GOP for 15 to 20 years now.  Basically its been becoming more like Indiana or Kansas, and less like Illinois - all kindred states.

Hate to say it but Oepedo is about right… we have a (D) Gov who’s not brilliant but he’s ok, economically we’re doing alright… but we’re becoming less and less of a bellwether IMHO… a foreshadowing of what may happen across the Midwest in the next fifteen years or so… Kerry could play well with the catholic population here and that could help him, it was close here in 2000 and people often forget that… but I’m in the UK at the moment so I don’t have up to date first hand knowledge really… I think that Bond will have a tougher Senate fight than many originally predicted though….Farmer is a good candidate IMHO and could do well… but Bond will win in all likelihood… maybe I should have got my friends to vote for Berry just out of compassion for the guy…      


This from Politics 1: “In Missouri, Rasmusson's new poll shows Bush-49%, Kerry-42%. Bush won MO by 3 points in 2000.”          

Ben, good analysis of our homestate.  I just got back two weeks ago from 7 months in Thailand, so I'm not exactly up to date on the local 'feel'.  I guess we both like to be From here more than to be here eh?

It can get dull... but I'm near ST.L so i isnt too bad... but still its home

[© tweed]

The Vorlon,

Please change your signature, it takes up too much screen space.

[dunn]

The Vorlon,

Please change your signature, it takes up too much screen space.

you can put the same though smaller

[ElCidGOP]

I know this is all just for fun, but we are SO FAR AWAY FROM ELECTION DAY.   Think about the last month and the ups and downs on both sides.  I may not make it to November.  The polls are killing me.  The explaining, the debate, the this and that,

AAAAAAAAAAAAAAHHHHHHHHH!

.  

[Filuwaúrdjan]

46-46... advantage Kerry!
Undecideds usually split 75% against the incumbent party... especially in West Virginia.

Looking like '88 all over again...

In 2000 the late deciding/undecided broke 2 to 1 for Gore in the last week....

Is that overall or in WV?
As to why "the Other Al" lost WV... it's because he's political advisors told him not to bother with WV as it's only 5 EV's...
Byrd's endorsement came too late...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I've said this time and time again, there are no "Steel States".  PA is not a steel producer anymore.  Steel Unions still exist here, but, politically, they are getting as rusty as the factories that haven't been used in 30 years.  PA is begining to evolve beyond steel and this election will reflect that.

Ah... but SW Pennsylvania was built on Steel and I'd guess it'll still have a big emotional pull.
Heavy Industry does that kind of thing a lot... examples: no Coal has been mined in Wigan for a long time... but it's still a coal town. No Steel has been made in Ebbw Vale for over 30 years... but it's still a steel town.
Strange things people.

BTW there still is a steel industry in WV

[Filuwaúrdjan]

If you check out the ARG website, it shows that 22% of Democrats are willing to vote for President Bush, and also the Presidents leads among independent voters.

Not a good sign for Kerry at this time--things could change though.

http://www.americanresearchgroup.com/wv/

WV is such a Democrat state that anyone who is not a Democrat is regarded by a lot of people as a de facto Republican...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Biggest "shock" of the poll: "A total of 76% of likely voters say they have an unfavorable opinion of Ralph Nader."

What's good for Kerry is that a higher % of people in the poll voted for Bush in 2000 than the statewide results in 2000

[opebo]

I've said this time and time again, there are no "Steel States".  PA is not a steel producer anymore.  Steel Unions still exist here, but, politically, they are getting as rusty as the factories that haven't been used in 30 years.  PA is begining to evolve beyond steel and this election will reflect that.

Ah... but SW Pennsylvania was built on Steel and I'd guess it'll still have a big emotional pull.
Heavy Industry does that kind of thing a lot... examples: no Coal has been mined in Wigan for a long time... but it's still a coal town. No Steel has been made in Ebbw Vale for over 30 years... but it's still a steel town.
Strange things people.

BTW there still is a steel industry in WV

People do tend to cling to things that are unpleasant, unrewarding, unprofitable - look at the mental disease that is farmer-hood in the US.