Romney's Right Results: Tied in SC, Gaining Nationally, Only Man Ahead of Obama

[Politico]

COLUMBIA, SC -- Rick Perry and Mitt Romney are running neck-and-neck among Republicans who are planning to vote in next year's South Carolina primary, according to a new Winthrop University poll released today.

Perry gets 31% and Romney 27% -- within the poll’s margin of error.

Romney has been far less present in South Carolina than Perry, whose wife Anita will be here tomorrow presiding over the Perry headquarters’ ribbon-cutting ceremony.

Source: http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/_news/2011/09/20/7862216-perry-romney-running-neck-and-neck-in-sc

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The latest USA Today/Gallup poll shows Perry leading Romney by 31 percent to 24 percent in the survey, which was conducted Sept. 15 to Sept. 18. The poll mirrored the results of two other recent polls that have shown the race tightening. Perry had previously led Romney by double-digits in surveys dating from August to early September.

Source: http://www.myfoxphoenix.com/dpps/news/poll-perrys-lead-slipping-in-gop-race-dpgonc-20110920-ch_15113674

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Romney currently edges out President Barack Obama by 49% to 47% in national registered-voter preferences for the November election, while Perry trails Obama by 45% to 50%.

Perry voters are slightly more likely than Romney voters to favor a candidate with the best chance of winning (59% vs. 52%). Thus, if Romney's edge in general election trial heats persists, some Perry voters might be swayed to back Romney instead.


Source: http://www.gallup.com/poll/149552/Perry-Looks-Better-Against-Romney-Against-Obama.aspx

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Romney does better among the swing voters who hold the key to most general elections. Among all registered voters, Romney edges President Obama while Perry narrowly lags him.

Perry is also a more polarizing figure: 44% say they definitely would not vote for the Texas governor; 35% say that of Romney. Looked at another way, 62% say would either definitely vote for Romney or consider doing so; 53% say that of Perry.

Source: http://www.usatoday.com/news/politics/story/2011-09-19/republican-poll-gop-perry-romney/50467944/1

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What can all Republicans agree upon? The desire to defeat Obama (The same applies to many independents and even some Democrats). Romney is gaining momentum, and it is easy to see why. If Perry is already putting himself in a position of only potentially getting 53% of the electorate AT MOST, with 44% saying they will definitely not vote for him no matter what, what the hell will those numbers look like another year from now? I mean, he is already in a poor position after, what, two months in the presidential race? In comparison, Romney could potentially win 62% of the national vote, and this is a candidate who has been known nationally for over four years already.

The question for Perry supporters: Do you want to defeat Obama or not? If you do, you may want to reconsider your support of Perry...

[RI]

The SC poll is a junk uni poll; Romney is definitely not tied in SC with Perry. Using one poll (especially when there are a bunch out there) to ascribe a trend is flagrantly dishonest. But facts don't matter to trolls and hacks, so I'm wasting my time.

[Politico]

The SC poll is a junk uni poll; Romney is definitely not tied in SC with Perry. Using one poll (especially when there are a bunch out there)

If you know of another RELEVANT SC poll (i.e., a poll conducted within the last week), please share it with us. Yes, Winthrop University is not exactly Duke University, but I presume their statistical department is committed to intellectual rigor and honesty. The fact that MSNBC is reporting the poll should say something about it.

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There is an undeniable trend nationally: Romney is gaining on Perry, and closing the gap. Perry no longer has a double digit lead. All of the national polls indicate this.

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I am doing neither. Why are you being so emotional? Are you upset that Obama is not necessarily going to coast to re-election against Perry?

[Bull Moose Base]

Perry's 4 point lead over Romney is a "tie" while Romney's 2 point lead over Obama is "ahead", eh?

[Politico]

Perry's 4 point lead over Romney is a "tie" while Romney's 2 point lead over Obama is "ahead", eh?

There are only so many characters one can use in the title of a thread. Perry is ahead of Romney in SC, but it is a statistical tie. Likewise, Romney is ahead of Obama nationally, but it it is a statistical tie. Better?

Perhaps I should have named the title something else because the most important part is as follows:

"Perry is also a more polarizing figure: 44% say they definitely would not vote for the Texas governor; 35% say that of Romney. Looked at another way, 62% say would either definitely vote for Romney or consider doing so; 53% say that of Perry."

[NVGonzalez]

I'll give you credit where it is due. Most of your assertion is very valid and does have merit. I especially agree that Romney is the man who is most likely to beat Obama and may be sneaking behind Perry and could steal the nomination from him. However while Romney could be catching up to Perry in that state, the SC poll is basically junk.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

I still do not buy the SC poll. McCain was able to pull off the upset over Huckabee, but unless Bachmann gains traction to pull votes away from Perry, I think he rolls here. The electability obviously fails to really persuade the base. This is the same party that elected Christine O'Donnell and Sharon Angle.

[Bull Moose Base]

Perry's 4 point lead over Romney is a "tie" while Romney's 2 point lead over Obama is "ahead", eh?

There are only so many characters one can use in the title of a thread. Perry is ahead of Romney in SC, but it is a statistical tie. Likewise, Romney is ahead of Obama nationally, but it it is a statistical tie. Better?

I might lose the "Romney's Right Results" to free some characters up.  Try "Perry 's lead over Romney twice the size of Romney's over Obama".  Bet you a South Carolina BBQ it fits.

[Averroës Nix]

I still do not buy the SC poll. McCain was able to pull off the upset over Huckabee, but unless Bachmann gains traction to pull votes away from Perry, I think he rolls here. The electability obviously fails to really persuade the base. This is the same party that elected Christine O'Donnell and Sharon Angle.

McCain, Romney, and Giuliani combined won a majority of the vote in the 2008 South Carolina primary. (It was essentially 50% for these three, 45% for Huckabee or Thompson, 4% for Paul, 1% for others.) If that crop of Republicans can manage a majority, I'm inclined to believe that Romney could get as much as 40% against Perry under favorable conditions. Still would be really surprised by a Romney win, but the 2008 results convince me that it's not impossible.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

SC allows everyone to vote in the GOP primary. Since there is no Democratic primary this time, more people may participate. Who knows if the Dems will try to influence the results or not. Who knows if the electorate will be the same or not.

[Politico]

SC allows everyone to vote in the GOP primary. Since there is no Democratic primary this time, more people may participate. Who knows if the Dems will try to influence the results or not. Who knows if the electorate will be the same or not.

This is a great point. I think a lot of folks who discount the SC poll are overlooking this. How many individuals in South Carolina who voted in the Democratic primaries of 2008/2004 will participate in the Republican primary this time around? I would wager quite a few, especially when it comes to former Clinton, Kerry and Edward supporters, but Obama supporters too, of course...

[Gustaf]

Yeah, any primary that allows non-Republicans to take part is likely to be more moderate than in 2008, ceteri paribus. That might help offset the Tea Party effect.

And I think the number of Democrats trying to game the system by voting Perry will be negligible. Most people don't vote that way, I don't think.

I still have a hard time seeing Romney win SC. On the other hand, I don't think he has to. If he can win NH, MI, NV and FL during the early part of the primary campaign, Perry winning IA and SC is fine. In fact, with SC being the classic "Southern" primary and Perry being a Southerner, I think expectations will be high on Perry there and a narrow Romney loss like in this poll could potentially be spun as something of a victory for him if other states have been going well for him.