National Tracking Poll Thread

[Likely Voter]

At this point I dont know what to believe with the polling. This year there are supposed to be very few undecideds and yet we are seeing polls diverge not consolidate as we get closer to the end. It is just weird. Of course it is a cherry pickers dream. One can pick a set of recent polls showing EV and PV victories for either candidate

[dirks]

aren't zogby polls just internet polls? usually junk

[afleitch]

PPP launched their own 3 day tracker today

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2012/10/obama-romney-tied-nationally.html

Obama 48
Romney 48

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

I really, really think (even if Obama loses) that Gallup will end up with egg on its face again.

[Yank2133]

Yeah, that sounds about right.

The race is tied or a slight lead for Mitt at the moment.

[Umengus]

PPP launched their own 3 day tracker today

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2012/10/obama-romney-tied-nationally.html

Obama 48
Romney 48

Romney wins independents by 5.

Party id: D+5 (was D+2 in their last poll)

[Yank2133]

D+5 sounds about right.

[J. J.]

A brand new bubble gum bustin' Zogby poll just came out showing Obama up by 4 in Florida. No way he's doing 11 points better there than nationwide.

It's Zogby.

[SUSAN CRUSHBONE]

A brand new bubble gum bustin' Zogby poll just came out showing Obama up by 4 in Florida. No way he's doing 11 points better there than nationwide.

It's Zogby.

It's Bandit.

[Andrew1]

Has any public poll this year given Romney a lead of 7 points?

Obama actually gained a point on Gallup's RV poll today, while Romney gained a point among LV. Their LV model must be at fault.

Romney is only +1 on Gallup's RV poll, that's roughly where it was for the whole of August, when they polled RV only.

[J. J.]

I really, really think (even if Obama loses) that Gallup will end up with egg on its face again.

They did the last time, but in the other direction.

I think it just be a very pro-Romney sample skewed everything. 

[krazen1211]

IBD/TIPP: Tied

Romney 46 (unc)
Obama 46 (-1)




Bounce! Bounce! Bounce I say!

[Dumbo]

I hope that Romney wins the popular vote, maybe 52 - 45.
But Obama wins the Electoral Vote with 271. It is time
that the Republicans know how much it hurts if your candidate
is supported by the majority but not elected.

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

I hope that Romney wins the popular vote, maybe 52 - 45.
But Obama wins the Electoral Vote with 271. It is time
that the Republicans know how much it hurts if your candidate
is supported by the majority but not elected.

That doesn't seem like a thing you'd want if you actually want Obama to achieve anything for the next four years.

[Umengus]

I hope that Romney wins the popular vote, maybe 52 - 45.
But Obama wins the Electoral Vote with 271. It is time
that the Republicans know how much it hurts if your candidate
is supported by the majority but not elected.

impossible to win by 7 and lose again the electoral college...

[Lief 🗽]

Once again, if you want to believe the Gallup poll that Mitt Romney is leading by 7% nationally, then you're going to have to not believe basically every single poll of every single state we've gotten in the past week. There is literally no evidence, other than the Gallup tracking poll, that Mitt Romney is leading by 7% or anything close to it.

[afleitch]

Once again, if you want to believe the Gallup poll that Mitt Romney is leading by 7% nationally, then you're going to have to not believe basically every single poll of every single state we've gotten in the past week. There is literally no evidence, other than the Gallup tracking poll, that Mitt Romney is leading by 7% or anything close to it.

And PPP's 4 point lead (based solely on a really good day for Romney) has now been superseded by their new poll. So we are left with outliers which if they look like outliers, usually are.

[LastVoter]

I hope that Romney wins the popular vote, maybe 52 - 45.
But Obama wins the Electoral Vote with 271. It is time
that the Republicans know how much it hurts if your candidate
is supported by the majority but not elected.

That doesn't seem like a thing you'd want if you actually want Obama to achieve anything for the next four years.

Why would we want more neoliberalism?

[Skill and Chance]

It's possible that Sunday/Monday was just epically good for Romney all around and that's what's driving the trackers.  Still, it doesn't look good for an Obama debate bounce.  3 out of 5 have Romney gaining slightly.  RAND looks good for Obama, but it's almost as far off in its own world as Gallup.

[Lief 🗽]

Only 1/7 of Gallup is post-debate, only 1/6 of the IBD poll is post-debate, only 1/3 of the Rasmussen poll is post-debate, only 1/3 of the PPP poll is post-debate (and they said that Obama gained significantly on their Wednesday interviews). Too early to tell.

[Reds4]

Actually the quote from PPP is "There was not a ton of day to day movement in the first 3 days of the national tracker, but Wednesday after the debate was Obama's best"

So I don't think that can be called a significant gain on Wednesday.. time will tell..

Gallup does appear to be an outlier right now though.. not buying that Romney is ahead 7 right now, no way.

Only 1/7 of Gallup is post-debate, only 1/6 of the IBD poll is post-debate, only 1/3 of the Rasmussen poll is post-debate, only 1/3 of the PPP poll is post-debate (and they said that Obama gained significantly on their Wednesday interviews). Too early to tell.

[Yank2133]

Actually the quote from PPP is "There was not a ton of day to day movement in the first 3 days of the national tracker, but Wednesday after the debate was Obama's best"

So I don't think that can be called a significant gain on Wednesday.. time will tell..

Gallup does appear to be an outlier right now though.. not buying that Romney is ahead 7 right now, no way.

Only 1/7 of Gallup is post-debate, only 1/6 of the IBD poll is post-debate, only 1/3 of the Rasmussen poll is post-debate, only 1/3 of the PPP poll is post-debate (and they said that Obama gained significantly on their Wednesday interviews). Too early to tell.

Mitt was leading by 4 in their national poll last week, the race is tied now at 48-48.

[Umengus]

Actually the quote from PPP is "There was not a ton of day to day movement in the first 3 days of the national tracker, but Wednesday after the debate was Obama's best"

So I don't think that can be called a significant gain on Wednesday.. time will tell..

Gallup does appear to be an outlier right now though.. not buying that Romney is ahead 7 right now, no way.

Only 1/7 of Gallup is post-debate, only 1/6 of the IBD poll is post-debate, only 1/3 of the Rasmussen poll is post-debate, only 1/3 of the PPP poll is post-debate (and they said that Obama gained significantly on their Wednesday interviews). Too early to tell.

Mitt was leading by 4 in their national poll last week, the race is tied now at 48-48.

because change in their party id: D+2 to D+5...

[Lief 🗽]

PPP. Does. Not. Weigh. By. Party. ID.

[Yank2133]

Actually the quote from PPP is "There was not a ton of day to day movement in the first 3 days of the national tracker, but Wednesday after the debate was Obama's best"

So I don't think that can be called a significant gain on Wednesday.. time will tell..

Gallup does appear to be an outlier right now though.. not buying that Romney is ahead 7 right now, no way.

Only 1/7 of Gallup is post-debate, only 1/6 of the IBD poll is post-debate, only 1/3 of the Rasmussen poll is post-debate, only 1/3 of the PPP poll is post-debate (and they said that Obama gained significantly on their Wednesday interviews). Too early to tell.

Mitt was leading by 4 in their national poll last week, the race is tied now at 48-48.

because change in their party id: D+2 to D+5...

Do we have to explain party ID to you again?