National Tracking Poll Thread

[Eraserhead]

The Gallup poll shows that relative to 2008, Obama has collapsed in the south, fallen some in the east, and is stable in the Midwest and West. This is consistent with polls showing him losing Florida and tightening in Pa., and would seem to indicate trouble in Va. But it would also explain the OH/WI/IA/NV firewall he's got going. Remember when Obama polled reasonable well in TN? That's gone.

Too bad nobody ever polls TN, so we could know for sure.

[Tender Branson]

Obama reverses a Romney-lead in the Rasmussen Swing State tracking poll and now leads:

50-47 (still pre-debate though)

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/daily_swing_state_tracking_poll

Romney leads 49-48 in the overall daily tracking poll (Obama gains 1% from yesterday's release).

[Likely Voter]

RAND
Obama 49.07
Romney 45.16

That's about a 1 point bump up for Romney, pretty big for one day in this poll

[Bandit3 the Worker]

RAND
Obama 49.07
Romney 45.16

That's about a 1 point bump up for Romney, pretty big for one day in this poll

I'm assuming this is before last night's debate.

[afleitch]

Romney now leads by 6 with Gallup

[Phony Moderate]

Gallup:

LV - Romney 51(+1)/45(-1)

RV - Romney 48(+1)/46(-1)

[dspNY]

Gallup most only be calling voters south of the Mason Dixon line or something...if that were the case Obama would be down 4-5 pts in Ohio

[krazen1211]

Romney now leads by 6 with Gallup

Glorious news!

[Likely Voter]

It makes me wonder, did something amazing happen for Romney on Sunday. We have the Gallup poll suddenly lurch to Romney and the PPP poll had that big pro Romney Sunday sample.

[Eraserhead]

Gallup:

LV - Romney 51(+1)/45(-1)

RV - Romney 48(+1)/46(-1)

Dear lord, how strict is their LV screen? Gallup is getting pretty close to jumping the shark.

[afleitch]

Gallup:

LV - Romney 51(+1)/45(-1)

RV - Romney 48(+1)/46(-1)

Dear lord, how strict is their LV screen? Gallup is getting pretty close to jumping the shark.

Apparently Obama leads in all their 'regions' except the South where Romney has a something like a 22 point lead. As a result Romney leads nationally despite trailing everywhere else.

Here: http://www.gallup.com/poll/158048/romney-obama-among-likely-voters.aspx

[tmthforu94]

I expect this race to be virtually tied by the end of the week. Looks like we could have a photo-finish for the popular vote.

[pa2011]

So Gallup says near landslide while most state polling, and the other trackers, say a close race or slight Obama edge. One thing is for sure, think we can all agree Romney isn't likely to win by 6 points nationally. Maybe 51 to 49, or even 52 to 48, but can't really envision Obama not breaking 48.

[Likely Voter]

IBD/TIPP

Obama 46.8 (-.5)
Romney 45.4 (-.4)

[afleitch]

So.

RAND - Obama +4
Reuters - Obama  +3
TIPP - Obama +2
Rass - Romney +1
Gallup - Romney +6

Quite a spread.

[Likely Voter]

Well I updated TIPP, it is actually Obama 1.4 so rounded down to Obama+1.

The avg of all tracking polls concluded yesterday would be Obama +0.1

[Eraserhead]

I guess Gallup isn't expecting black people in the south to vote in this one...

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

I do wonder if Gallup is falling back into its bad habits from 2010.

[RI]

Gallup:

LV - Romney 51(+1)/45(-1)

RV - Romney 48(+1)/46(-1)

Dear lord, how strict is their LV screen? Gallup is getting pretty close to jumping the shark.

Apparently Obama leads in all their 'regions' except the South where Romney has a something like a 22 point lead. As a result Romney leads nationally despite trailing everywhere else.

Here: http://www.gallup.com/poll/158048/romney-obama-among-likely-voters.aspx

There's no way Romney is over 60% in the South. Romney will be lucky to get over 60% in three states (AL, LA, and AR) down there, plus those aren't the states where the population lies. Romney isn't getting anywhere close to 60% in Georgia, Texas, North Carolina, and Florida (possibly approaching 60% in Texas, but I doubt it).

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

So.

RAND - Obama +4
Reuters - Obama  +3
TIPP - Obama +2
Rass - Romney +1
Gallup - Romney +6

Quite a spread.

So would the race basically be O+2, at the moment?

[Lief 🗽]

Apparently there was a Reuters/Ipsos poll today, including some interviews from post-debate, though it's a 5-day tracking poll so at most 1/5 would be post-debate.

LV
Obama: 47% (+1)
Romney: 44% (+1)

Obama is up 46-40 with registered voters and leads by 12% with early voters, though the margin of error is pretty huge.

[Gustaf]

So.

RAND - Obama +4
Reuters - Obama  +3
TIPP - Obama +2
Rass - Romney +1
Gallup - Romney +6

Quite a spread.

So would the race basically be O+2, at the moment?

That is not what that averages out to. It'd be Obama +0.4. Which essentially means a tie.

[afleitch]

So.

RAND - Obama +4
Reuters - Obama  +3
TIPP - Obama +2
Rass - Romney +1
Gallup - Romney +6

Quite a spread.

So would the race basically be O+2, at the moment?

That is not what that averages out to. It'd be Obama +0.4. Which essentially means a tie.

I'd be inclined to think it is fair to drop the two outliers (RAND and Gallup) which would give Obama a 1.3% lead. Throwing YouGov in there which was O+1 would give the same result. Given Rassmussens favourability to Romney if you're partisan and chuck that out then Obama's lead is 2%

Speaking of potential outliers here's RAND!

Obama 50.03 (+0.96)
Romney 44.34 (-0.82)

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

So basically.... nobody knows what the hell is going on. At least the polls are reflecting the community.

[opebo]

So basically.... nobody knows what the hell is going on. At least the polls are reflecting the community.

No one knows, but generally it is tied.  What we really don' t know is if Romney's bump has really stalled out and whether there will be a lesser counter bump for Obama.  I suspect this is the case.