National Tracking Poll Thread

[J. J.]

Rasmussen Swing State Tracking Poll:

Romney 49 (+2)
Obama 47 (-2)

That methodology is really bad.

[GMantis]

Rasmussen Swing State Tracking Poll:

Romney 49 (+2)
Obama 47 (-2)

That methodology is really bad.

How so?

[J. J.]

Rasmussen Swing State Tracking Poll:

Romney 49 (+2)
Obama 47 (-2)

That methodology is really bad.

How so?

Lumping all the "swing states" together.

[afleitch]

Gallup

LV: Romney 49 (+1) Obama 47 (-1)
RV: Obama 50 (+1) Romney 45 (-1)

[krazen1211]

Romney is going to take the lead in RCP for the first time.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Gallup

LV: Romney 49 (+1) Obama 47 (-1)
RV: Obama 50 (+1) Romney 45 (-1)

A 7-point diff between LV and RV? I don't think so, Gallup.

[Lief 🗽]

The RV numbers are actually Obama 49 (-1), Romney 47 (+1).

[Skill and Chance]

Romney is going to take the lead in RCP for the first time.

Second time.  October 2011.

[afleitch]

Interestingly Obama's approvals are up to 53% and Gallup are still using a 7 day model for their Presidential tracker. I thought they would have switched to a three day model?

[afleitch]

The RV numbers are actually Obama 49 (-1), Romney 47 (+1).

That changed. I wish I screen grabbed the page but the numbers I posted were the ones on the site at the o'clock.

[AmericanNation]

Rasmussen Swing State Tracking Poll:

Romney 49 (+2)
Obama 47 (-2)

That methodology is really bad.

How so?

Lumping all the "swing states" together.

It is interesting that Obama won all 11 states in 08 and the margin was like 53-46, outside of that pretty much useless. 

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Interestingly Obama's approvals are up to 53% and Gallup are still using a 7 day model for their Presidential tracker. I thought they would have switched to a three day model?

The only way you can defeat an incumbent President with approvals that high is if the opponent is already some sort of national hero. Sorry, Mitt, you lose.

[Brittain33]

I saw some reverse math at Brad DeLong's site that said that Obama must have had an extraordinarily good sample on Sunday to account for the numbers Gallup was showing between the two 3-day breakouts and the 7-day option. Like, O +20. Given the credibility problem that would (rightfully) cause, that's a reason for Gallup to stick to 7-day samples a little longer.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

I saw some reverse math at Brad DeLong's site that said that Obama must have had an extraordinarily good sample on Sunday to account for the numbers Gallup was showing between the two 3-day breakouts and the 7-day option. Like, O +20.

Maybe people finally had a Kenny Rogers moment where they just got tired of putting up with Romney's crap. It's a bit like when Occupy started.

[afleitch]

Oh Gallup and your small print...

http://www.gallup.com/poll/157955/romney-obama-among-likely-voters.aspx

'Although Gallup's main focus is on seven-day rolling averages, a breakdown of interviewing over shorter periods can be helpful in understanding the short-term impact of events like conventions and debates. As Gallup reported Monday, Romney gained ground among registered voters in the immediate aftermath of his Oct. 3 debate, moving from a five-point deficit prior to the debate to a tie in the three days that immediately followed. Most of that gain was driven by substantial Romney leads in the Thursday and Friday tracking.

Since Saturday, however, Obama has regained a 50% to 45% edge among registered voters in interviewing conducted Sunday and Monday -- the same as his margin in the three days prior to the debate. Although these two days of interviewing involve relatively small sample sizes, they suggest that Romney's debate "bounce" may be fading.'

[Brittain33]

Maybe I'm whistling past the graveyard, but having lived through enough cycles with demoralized Dem voters and dysfunctional campaigns, the one area I don't worry about is a yawning RV/LV gap. The Obama campaign doesn't have 386 campaign offices in Ohio for people to hold signs.

(Obviously Romney has a bounce in the polls and his followers are super energized right now, I'm just sayin'.)

[afleitch]

Maybe I'm whistling past the graveyard, but having lived through enough cycles with demoralized Dem voters and dysfunctional campaigns, the one area I don't worry about is a yawning RV/LV gap. The Obama campaign doesn't have 386 campaign offices in Ohio for people to hold signs.

(Obviously Romney has a bounce in the polls and his followers are super energized right now, I'm just sayin'.)

Curiously in 2008 Obama's RV and LV numbers closely followed each other, McCain however suffered and had a significant gap between the two.

[Umengus]

Rasmussen

Obama 48 (unc)
Romney 48 (unc)

At this rate we may actually get a few days where Democratic spin doctors start talking highly of the Rasmuusen poll and Republicans disregard it in favor of polls like Pew and PPP/Dailykos!

Also, this is Sat-Sun-Mon, which means it doesn't include the great day Romney had on Friday.  I'd thought Obama would get a lead again with that day dropping off the tracker.

Idem

So if saturday was good for Obama considering the job report, Romney will be leading tomorrow in the ras track poll.

[Tender Branson]

DAY 1:

47-45 Romney

A key swing group making up nearly a third of voters, independents favor Romney over Obama 52%-34%. In 2008, Obama had a 52% to 44% edge among independents.

Polling period: 10/2 - 10/8
Margin of Error: +/- 3.5%
Sample Size: 797 likely voters (identified from 920 registered voters with party affiliation of 39% Dem, 31% GOP, 30% Ind.)

http://news.investors.com/special-report/508415-ibdtipp-poll.aspx

[Reds4]

Good to have another tracking poll.. I think this one has been decent in the past?

[Lief 🗽]

It's officially time to panic.

[krazen1211]

RACE
White   
35%
56%
8%


3 polls now show Romney winning whites by 20 points.

[Reds4]

I have to say Lief, you panic awfully quickly.

It's officially time to panic.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

IBD is a far-right rag.

[cinyc]

Reuters-Ipsos

Obama 45% (-2)
Romney 45% (unc)

Among LVs. October 5-9.

Among RVs, Obama leads 45-42.