National Tracking Poll Thread

[Yank2133]

According to NPR, Gallup is switching to LV tomorrow.

The guest expects Obama's lead to evaporate.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

According to NPR, Gallup is switching to LV tomorrow.

Don't they already use LV?

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

According to NPR, Gallup is switching to LV tomorrow.

Don't they already use LV?

No RV... I expect +5 to go to +2-3

[Eraserhead]

It's about time. They should have switched over almost a month ago.

[Likely Voter]

Is Gallup sticking with 7 day or switching to 3 day? If it is 3 day, then Romney may be ahead in LV.

Also dont see a Reuters/Ipsos today. They seem to take days off every once in a while.

[AmericanNation]

Pew Poll

Romney 49
Obama  45

Pew is usually messed up, but rarely in favor of Rs. 

[Eraserhead]

Pew Poll

Romney 49
Obama  45

Pew is usually messed up, but rarely in favor of Rs.  

Why are you posting this in the tracking poll thread?

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Pew Poll

Romney 49
Obama  45

Pew is usually messed up, but rarely in favor of Rs.  

Why are you posting this in the tracking poll thread?

Not only that, but the poll has already been discredited by the internals.

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

Pew Poll

Romney 49
Obama  45

Pew is usually messed up, but rarely in favor of Rs.  

Why are you posting this in the tracking poll thread?

Not only that, but the poll has already been discredited by the internals.

What internals?

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Pew Poll

Romney 49
Obama  45

Pew is usually messed up, but rarely in favor of Rs.  

Why are you posting this in the tracking poll thread?

Not only that, but the poll has already been discredited by the internals.

What internals?

68% of respondents were over 50.

[cinyc]

68% of respondents were over 50.

Like most polls, the Pew poll was weighted for age.  The over 50s' responses were weighted less than the under 50s' when deriving at the top line number.

That's pretty standard procedure for pollsters.  Most pollsters end up with too many over 50s and too few under 50s, relative to the population.  Who do you think is home to answer the phone at 2PM on a work day?  And who is less likely to have caller ID to screen calls?

[Tender Branson]

Yes, it was confirmed that Gallup will switch to LV today and show Obama/Romney tied, down from O+5 among their RV poll.

This will mean Romney is ahead for the first time in the RCP average.

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

Who confirmed it'd be tied?

[Tender Branson]

Who confirmed it'd be tied?

USA Today's Susan Page:

http://politicalwire.com/archives/2012/10/08/likely_voter_screen_wipes_out_obama_lead_in_gallup_poll.html

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

Who confirmed it'd be tied?

USA Today's Susan Page:

http://politicalwire.com/archives/2012/10/08/likely_voter_screen_wipes_out_obama_lead_in_gallup_poll.html

I'm still holding out hope Obama's still up. Romney leading in the RCP average would be a massive psychological loss for Obama supporters everywhere. He hasn't done it in over a year.
Anyway, anyone got the latest RAND Poll results?

[Tender Branson]

Who confirmed it'd be tied?

USA Today's Susan Page:

http://politicalwire.com/archives/2012/10/08/likely_voter_screen_wipes_out_obama_lead_in_gallup_poll.html

I'm still holding out hope Obama's still up. Romney leading in the RCP average would be a massive psychological loss for Obama supporters everywhere. He hasn't done it in over a year.
Anyway, anyone got the latest RAND Poll results?

There's about a 90% chance Romney will lead on the RCP average later today, when they include the Gallup results and the Zogby poll which has it a tie. They probably throw out the older polls too and because Romney is ahead in the Pew poll by 4, he should lead by about 0.3-0.5% overall.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Unless Obama somehow manages to pull ahead on Ras tomorrow (which is plausible, but I expect the tie to hold), since I don't know how the Gallup LV screen will work, but I'm expecting either a tie or a +1 either side, Romney will take the lead on RCP tomorrow... and Obama's supporters are going to have to suck it up and keep working to get it back.

[afleitch]

RAND 8th October

Obama 49.07 (+0.14)
Romney 45.24 (+0.05)

Interestingly Romney supporters 'intention to vote' has fallen while Obama supporters 'intention to vote' has been increasing and is now at it's highest since the survey began.

They have also released details of their sub-samples for the battleground states. These are too small (I think) to consitutute polls on their own. For what it's worth it shows a narrowing in Ohio (which was driven pre-debate) but a steady Obama lead in Florida

[Brittain33]

Rasmussen

Obama 48 (unc)
Romney 48 (unc)

[GMantis]

So the bounce seems not to have receded as quickly as previously thought.

[Eraserhead]

Rasmussen

Obama 48 (unc)
Romney 48 (unc)

At this rate we may actually get a few days where Democratic spin doctors start talking highly of the Rasmuusen poll and Republicans disregard it in favor of polls like Pew and PPP/Dailykos!

[cavalcade]

Rasmussen

Obama 48 (unc)
Romney 48 (unc)

At this rate we may actually get a few days where Democratic spin doctors start talking highly of the Rasmuusen poll and Republicans disregard it in favor of polls like Pew and PPP/Dailykos!

Yeah, over the last week there's been a major shift in party ID among respondents towards Republicans which had an impact on all the polls except for the ones (like Rasmussen) which have been weighting party ID in an R-favored way for some time.  So Rasmussen now has less of a house effect than it used to- this also shows up in state polls, like where they still have Obama up in Colorado, Iowa, and Ohio.

Also, this is Sat-Sun-Mon, which means it doesn't include the great day Romney had on Friday.  I'd thought Obama would get a lead again with that day dropping off the tracker.

[Brittain33]

It's kind of hilarious if October saw the American electorate adjusting to match Rasmussen rather than the other way around.

[Eraserhead]

It's kind of hilarious if October saw the American electorate adjusting to match Rasmussen rather than the other way around.

If it actually lasts.

[GMantis]

Rasmussen Swing State Tracking Poll:

Romney 49 (+2)
Obama 47 (-2)