National Tracking Poll Thread

[Lief 🗽]

One difference between 2004 and 2012 is that Kerry was leading Bush during the summer, before the RNC and the swift boat attacks permanently shifted the race towards Bush. This year, on the other hand, according to RCP Romney has never led Obama, even by 0.1%. The best he did was an exact tie, at the height of the RNC/Ryan bounce. I don't want to jinx things and the dynamics of the race could definitely still change, but I think it's very possible that we may look back on 2012 as never being as close as the conventional wisdom said it was.

edit: Nate Silver just tweeted this same point. That plagiarist.

[MorningInAmerica]

Just for fun, check out Rasmussen's tracking poll for Today (Sept 8th ) in each of the last two elections (these numbers include "leaners.")

Today: Obama +1
Obama: 47%
Romney: 46%

Sep 8, 2008: McCain +1
McCain: 48%
Obama: 47%

Sep 8, 2004: Bush +2
Bush: 50%
Kerry: 48%

And here are the RCP averages for Sep 8

Today: Obama +1
Obama: 47%
Romney: 46%

2008: McCain +3
Obama: 45%
McCain: 48%

2004: Bush +7
Bush: 50%
Kerry: 43%

[Lief 🗽]

No Ipsos poll today?

[MorningInAmerica]

No Ipsos poll today?

Not yet apparently. http://www.ipsos-na.com/news-polls/reuters-polls/

I've seen them post as late as 5pm EST before, but usually before now. Don't know why they would take a day off, if they are.

[MorningInAmerica]

The last time Obama led Romney by as much as 4 points in the daily Gallup tracking poll was about 6 weeks ago, on July 21st, when he led 48-44%.

[Eraserhead]

Come on, Reuters, what the hell?

[Sbane]

Folks, it's gonna be a blowout.

It's gonna be an absolute, complete blowout.

I wonder if you will be the mypalfish of this election.

[Sbane]

This election looks so ridiculously 2004-like polling-technically, it's almost unbelievable:



Kerry got a VP bounce from Edwards, like Romney with Ryan.

Kerry almost got no convention bounce, like Romney.

Bush got a huge convention bounce from which Kerry never really fully recovered from.

Obama is currently on the way to build a big bounce as well ... but ... will Romney recover and win ?

The only difference might be that Obama has a much higher downside risk due to the economy. Also while the Iraq was was starting to worsen by 2004, Bush had ensured Kerry was not seen as a viable alternative on foreign policy. Has Obama done the same with the economy vs Romney. I think the only state where that might be true is Ohio.

[Eraserhead]

Reuters is here. The bounce continues:

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/09/08/us-usa-campaign-poll-idUSBRE88619X20120908?

Obama 47% (+1)
Romney 43% (-1)

[Lief 🗽]

Obama: 47% (+1)
Romney: 43% (-1)

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lol, that ellipsis

[Lief 🗽]

Nate Silver agrees with Tender wrt Obama's lead at the moment:

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https://twitter.com/fivethirtyeight/status/244538584793743361

[Eraserhead]

If we get a non-tracker national poll in the next couple of days, it could be truly scary looking for Romney.

[Yank2133]

Obamamentum!

[afleitch]

If we get a non-tracker national poll in the next couple of days, it could be truly scary looking for Romney.

Depends which firm.

[Earthling]

Nate Silver agrees with Tender wrt Obama's lead at the moment:

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https://twitter.com/fivethirtyeight/status/244538584793743361

Romney will be in a very difficult place if those numbers are true. And PPP seems to suggest that Nate Silver is right.

[J. J.]

We,ll also see the unemployment number reaction hitting the polls, but pro baby not fully until today's sample.

[Earthling]

The unemployment numbers came out on Fridaymorning, so they are probably in the same sample as Obama's acceptance speech from Thursdayevening.

[J. J.]

The unemployment numbers came out on Fridaymorning, so they are probably in the same sample as Obama's acceptance speech from Thursdayevening.

Assuming that everyone has the information instantly, yes.  Most people don't.  The may check the Internet in later in the day, or wait for the evening news, or even wait to actually read a paper.  There is some lag.

We know and comment on things as they are happening.  Most people don't.

Two places I check for breaking national/international news, cable or here.  If I'm out of the house, I can't do that.

[Earthling]

The numbers are on tv, radio and the internet within minutes. I think most people will know of the numbers before they are home from work. Before the pollsters will call them.

[MorningInAmerica]

Everyone - Democrat, Republican, Independent alike will have to admit that Obama has shown amazing resilience in the face of awful head-winds. I'm convinced any other president would be heading into this election at a severe disadvantage, and polling indicates he isn't. Obama's the first "teflon president" we've had since Reagan, as much as I hate to admit it. If he wins reelection, given the economy, it will be historic. And right now, it appears as though he could.

Even if Romney pulls out the smallest of victories, I think most historians and economists will think he fell short of what he should have been able to do against Obama.

[Likely Voter]

I could have sworn someone here was arguing a week ago that Romney had established a new permanent lead.   Because of course things never change in politics.

Anyway it appears that the DNC is getting a bigger bump than even RNC bump + Ryan bump. I still believe the race will settle into Obama +2 by the end of the month. Of course this could be Obama + 4 in most of the country but Obama +1 or tied in the swing states getting the Romney carpet bombing.

[J. J.]

The numbers are on tv, radio and the internet within minutes. I think most people will know of the numbers before they are home from work. Before the pollsters will call them.

At 7:40 AM ET yesterday, even most of the regulars here were not looking at the numbers.  It will take a few hours to get out. 

On Gallup, those numbers won't even be fully internalized until the end of next week. 

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

The numbers are on tv, radio and the internet within minutes. I think most people will know of the numbers before they are home from work. Before the pollsters will call them.

At 7:40 AM ET yesterday, even most of the regulars here were not looking at the numbers.  It will take a few hours to get out. 

On Gallup, those numbers won't even be fully internalized until the end of next week. 

At 7:40 AM not even the Romney Campaign was looking at the numbers. They or us would've had to have had some very high connections in the government.

[J. J.]

The numbers are on tv, radio and the internet within minutes. I think most people will know of the numbers before they are home from work. Before the pollsters will call them.

At 7:40 AM ET yesterday, even most of the regulars here were not looking at the numbers.  It will take a few hours to get out. 

On Gallup, those numbers won't even be fully internalized until the end of next week. 

At 7:40 AM not even the Romney Campaign was looking at the numbers. They or us would've had to have had some very high connections in the government.

Sorry, I forgot my account here is set on Central Time.    Yes, it was out at 8:30 AM ET. 

[Earthling]

The pollsters will also not start polling at 8:30 AM.

Like I said, most people, not all, but most, will know these numbers by the end of the day. So they will be part of the same sample as Obama's speech. Maybe not entirely, but for the most part. 

And it's true that Gallup is slow. On Gallup the RNC convention is now fully internalized and it doesn't look good for them.