Predict the Presidential Election of 2052

[Skill and Chance]

Assume that there will still be a two party system in place.  Bonus points for an electoral map reflecting your prediction of the population distribution in 2052.

[5280]

Republican party becomes more Libertarian, Democrat party becomes more populist

[Lambsbread]

Hey! That's the year I hope to run for President!

[Skill and Chance]

Republican party becomes more Libertarian, Democrat party becomes more populist

What happens to the upper plains?  Wind energy drives population growth?

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

Republican party becomes more Libertarian, Democrat party becomes more populist

That's not what it would look like at all. A populist Democratic Party would win at least the Clinton states in the South, do worse in the West and Northeast, and win through the Midwest and parts of the West and NE.

[Skill and Chance]

2052:

This scenario assumes moderate to severe climate change.

[Nichlemn]

Republican party becomes more Libertarian, Democrat party becomes more populist

This Electoral College has 579 EVs unless I added them incorrectly. Do you expect the House to increase in size?

[heatmaster]

Hi I'm interested to know how you can manipulate the electoral votes on your maps, for example the EVCAL only goes beyond the 2010 census, so California has 55 EV, so my question how do you change the California EV allocation to say 56 in a map dealing with the 2024 election or 58 in the 2052 election, no one seems to know, or does one need software or what then is the method just curious.

[Duke David]

All those predictions are so senseless. Here's why:

• The anti-democratic electoral college is likely to be replaced in favor of direct ballots.
• Even if the electoral college is retained we know nothing about future distributions of electors. (splitting EV like Maine and Nebraska, proportional distribution etc.)
• Will the number of electors be increased or decreased?
• Will new States have joined the Union by 2052? (e.g. Puerto Rico, Virgin Islands)
• Will US States have seceded from the Union? (e.g. New Mexico, Southern California, New England)
• Even if the assumed two-party system will survive, who says that the GOP and the Dems won't be replaced by two other parties?
• And can we really eliminate all doubt that the USA won't have degenerated into tyranny or theocracy?

Questions upon questions...

[heatmaster]

So  what appears to be the case, is that nobody is able to change EVs for each state according to the election year, eg. California currently has 55 yet another contributor snowstalker is able to change it to 56 for the 2024 elections, has is that done?

[Duke David]

Hi I'm interested to know how you can manipulate the electoral votes on your maps, for example the EVCAL only goes beyond the 2010 census, so California has 55 EV, so my question how do you change the California EV allocation to say 56 in a map dealing with the 2024 election or 58 in the 2052 election, no one seems to know, or does one need software or what then is the method just curious.

You can change the figures in the URL.

[heatmaster]

How do you change the numbers in the URL, where is it? I am new here, so when you say URL what does it mean? In other words if you are doing it how would you go about it? In layman's language please

[Penelope]

Bump. The electoral votes are unchanged and meaningless - I think they just make the map look better aesthetically.

Atlasian color scheme.

[Skill and Chance]

Bump. The electoral votes are unchanged and meaningless - I think they just make the map look better aesthetically.

Atlasian color scheme.

That looks like a prohibitive advantage for the Democrats.

[Skill and Chance]

Here's a more realistic idea than my first map:

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

If there is a realignment (probably a bit later than 2052), I'd say something like this:

[izixs]

No clue on the EVs but this election between the Tea Free Republican Party, New Socialist Front, and Democratic-Traditionalist Alliance ends up getting thrown to the house where the house once again throws the election to the DTA despite the NSF having a slightly higher popular vote count. As both the NSF and DTA had the same VP nominee she gets elected without upset.

The house upset of the election in support of a candidate without a popular vote win for the third straight election helps finally push through the electoral college abolition amendment and the electoral runoff amendment, both of which on their own would solve this problem but together would dramatically change the face of American politics at a level beyond even the great schism of the 2030s that lead to the creation of the short lived five party system. (From right to left: American Conservative Republican Party, Tea Free Republican Party, Radical Moderate Traditional Coalition, Democratic Party, and Socialist Front)

The 2056 election would see a reappearance to national politics of the ACRP, which would come in fourth of the major parties. The runoff would be between the TFRP and DTA with the DTA winning out for a reelection of President Pippin Alcanter.

Of course things would be up in the air again for the 2060 election...

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

Interesting analysis.