2012 Republican Primary Predictions

[Vosem]

And now Paul has a state.

The map is misleading to some extent; Perry wins lots of low-population, large states, while Romney wins denser, New England states. Since those that predicted Romney would win Arizona were generally more confident than those that predicted Perry do so, I counted Arizona for Romney, whereas I split Wisconsin 50-50.

EC count (obviously PR not included), using above method:

Mitt Romney 282
Rick Perry 243
Michele Bachmann 10
Ron Paul 3

Which looks about right.

[Vosem]

New total, pre-Cain begins winning states (I predict he'll be ahead of Perry in a week):

Mitt Romney 339
Rick Perry 189
Michele Bachmann 10

Paul lost Alaska to Romney, and Romney got a bunch of states from Perry.

[Vosem]

OK, we're down to a two-way race between Romney and Perry. Romney clearly leads:

Mitt Romney 360
Rick Perry 178

Cain has still not broken through anywhere; it'll probably start in Georgia.