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February 26, 2021, 02:43:44 AM
Talk Elections
Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
Election Predictions
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muon2
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2012 Republican Primary Predictions
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Topic: 2012 Republican Primary Predictions (Read 29224 times)
ElectionAtlas
Atlas Proginator
YaBB God
Posts: 3,574
2012 Republican Primary Predictions
«
on:
September 09, 2011, 10:36:38 AM »
«
edited:
September 09, 2011, 11:47:41 AM
by
Dave Leip »
Hi,
The
2012 Republican Primary Predictions
are now enabled. Please report any issues.
Summary Compiled Map
Logged
tmthforu94
Atlas Politician
Atlas Star
Posts: 22,188
Political Matrix
E: 2.97, S: -1.57
Re: 2012 Republican Primary Predictions
«
Reply #1 on:
September 09, 2011, 04:34:58 PM »
Thank you Dave!
Logged
Thomas D
YaBB God
Posts: 3,991
Political Matrix
E: -2.84, S: -6.61
Re: 2012 Republican Primary Predictions
«
Reply #2 on:
September 09, 2011, 05:55:48 PM »
Awesome.
Thanks, Dave.
Logged
God-Empress Stacey I of House Abrams
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
Posts: 53,324
Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83
Re: 2012 Republican Primary Predictions
«
Reply #3 on:
September 11, 2011, 12:13:54 PM »
Quote from: Tmthforu94 on September 09, 2011, 04:34:58 PM
Thank you Dave!
Logged
Phony Moderate
Obamaisdabest
Atlas Icon
Posts: 12,308
Re: 2012 Republican Primary Predictions
«
Reply #4 on:
September 11, 2011, 12:38:39 PM »
Quote from: Fast Drei Prozent on September 11, 2011, 12:13:54 PM
Quote from: Tmthforu94 on September 09, 2011, 04:34:58 PM
Thank you Dave!
Logged
Kaine for Senate '18
benconstine
Atlas Superstar
Posts: 30,344
Re: 2012 Republican Primary Predictions
«
Reply #5 on:
September 11, 2011, 06:53:27 PM »
Quote from: Emile Hirsch on September 11, 2011, 12:38:39 PM
Quote from: Fast Drei Prozent on September 11, 2011, 12:13:54 PM
Quote from: Tmthforu94 on September 09, 2011, 04:34:58 PM
Thank you Dave!
Logged
Vosem
Atlas Icon
Posts: 10,303
Political Matrix
E: 4.13, S: -6.26
Re: 2012 Republican Primary Predictions
«
Reply #6 on:
September 11, 2011, 08:46:46 PM »
And now Paul has a state.
The map is misleading to some extent; Perry wins lots of low-population, large states, while Romney wins denser, New England states. Since those that predicted Romney would win Arizona were generally more confident than those that predicted Perry do so, I counted Arizona for Romney, whereas I split Wisconsin 50-50.
EC count (obviously PR not included), using above method:
Mitt Romney 282
Rick Perry 243
Michele Bachmann 10
Ron Paul 3
Which looks about right.
Logged
Duke David
Atheist2006
Rookie
Posts: 240
Re: 2012 Republican Primary Predictions
«
Reply #7 on:
September 12, 2011, 03:49:20 AM »
Why is Ron Paul only supposed to win one state? I thought he were so popular?
Logged
Thomas D
YaBB God
Posts: 3,991
Political Matrix
E: -2.84, S: -6.61
Re: 2012 Republican Primary Predictions
«
Reply #8 on:
September 12, 2011, 05:20:49 PM »
Quote from: Atheist2006 on September 12, 2011, 03:49:20 AM
Why is Ron Paul only supposed to win one state? I thought he were so popular?
He's fairly well liked. But most of the people here don't think he'll win any states.
Logged
A-Bob
Concerned Citizen
Posts: 5,784
Re: 2012 Republican Primary Predictions
«
Reply #9 on:
October 01, 2011, 05:45:43 PM »
Quote from: Atheist2006 on September 12, 2011, 03:49:20 AM
Why is Ron Paul only supposed to win one state? I thought he were so popular?
He's extremely popular amongst his vocal supporters, but no one else outside of the democratic party
Logged
Psychic Octopus
Concerned Citizen
Posts: 8,949
Re: 2012 Republican Primary Predictions
«
Reply #10 on:
October 01, 2011, 07:11:47 PM »
Quote from: Governor of the Mideast A-Bob on October 01, 2011, 05:45:43 PM
Quote from: Atheist2006 on September 12, 2011, 03:49:20 AM
Why is Ron Paul only supposed to win one state? I thought he were so popular?
He's
extremely popular
amongst his vocal supporters, but no one else outside of the democratic party
Understatement of the century.
Logged
Vosem
Atlas Icon
Posts: 10,303
Political Matrix
E: 4.13, S: -6.26
Re: 2012 Republican Primary Predictions
«
Reply #11 on:
October 01, 2011, 09:55:32 PM »
New total, pre-Cain begins winning states (I predict he'll be ahead of Perry in a week):
Mitt Romney 339
Rick Perry 189
Michele Bachmann 10
Paul lost Alaska to Romney, and Romney got a bunch of states from Perry.
Logged
God-Empress Stacey I of House Abrams
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
Posts: 53,324
Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83
Re: 2012 Republican Primary Predictions
«
Reply #12 on:
October 02, 2011, 03:38:21 AM »
Don't we need a new color to represent Cain ? Purple basically means "miscellaneous candidates".
Logged
A-Bob
Concerned Citizen
Posts: 5,784
Re: 2012 Republican Primary Predictions
«
Reply #13 on:
October 02, 2011, 03:49:55 PM »
Quote from: Antonio V on October 02, 2011, 03:38:21 AM
Don't we need a new color to represent Cain ? Purple basically means "miscellaneous candidates".
^
Will others get colors as they come into major play. I'm thinking Cain, Gingrich, and possibly Christie if he enters.
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Psychic Octopus
Concerned Citizen
Posts: 8,949
Re: 2012 Republican Primary Predictions
«
Reply #14 on:
October 02, 2011, 04:56:11 PM »
I think we need to replace Huntsman with someone else, since Cain and Gingrich both do better than him and don't have their own colors.
Logged
Penelope
Scifiguy
Jr. Member
Posts: 1,525
Re: 2012 Republican Primary Predictions
«
Reply #15 on:
October 05, 2011, 08:43:51 PM »
It may be prudent to give Cain a new color, as well as Gingrich.
Perhaps Huntsman's red can be swapped to Cain, and Bachmann's orange to Gingrich?
Logged
Mehmentum
Icefire9
YaBB God
Posts: 4,542
Re: 2012 Republican Primary Predictions
«
Reply #16 on:
October 11, 2011, 05:34:40 PM »
I must say atlas users are very slow on responding to Perry's complete implosion.
Logged
Vosem
Atlas Icon
Posts: 10,303
Political Matrix
E: 4.13, S: -6.26
Re: 2012 Republican Primary Predictions
«
Reply #17 on:
October 16, 2011, 11:53:10 AM »
OK, we're down to a two-way race between Romney and Perry. Romney clearly leads:
Mitt Romney 360
Rick Perry 178
Cain has still not broken through anywhere; it'll probably start in Georgia.
Logged
OAM
Jr. Member
Posts: 597
Re: 2012 Republican Primary Predictions
«
Reply #18 on:
October 16, 2011, 07:32:40 PM »
Quote from: Icefire9 on October 11, 2011, 05:34:40 PM
I must say atlas users are very slow on responding to Perry's complete implosion.
Well, I can only judge from my own opinions, but I believe there's two things at work here.
1) There's a lot of flux right now, things changing fast, etc, and no one's really sure how it'll even be next week.
2) People's opinions of Cain in particular are changing pretty fast. Some thing he's a fad, some think he's here to stay, even more aren't sure either way...
I personally was going to wait until things settle to make my next version, but it'd been awhile, so I made one today.
Logged
Make America Neoliberal Again
Ray Goldfield
Concerned Citizen
Posts: 5,127
Re: 2012 Republican Primary Predictions
«
Reply #19 on:
October 27, 2011, 05:11:35 PM »
Romney: 282
Cain: 177
Perry: 69
Bachmann: 10
I've been hearing lately that some big money donors are giving Gingrich a second look, though, so I may revisit this.
Logged
A-Bob
Concerned Citizen
Posts: 5,784
Re: 2012 Republican Primary Predictions
«
Reply #20 on:
November 11, 2011, 07:28:49 PM »
Gingrich has his own color. I guess Cain will stay with purple?
Logged
fezzyfestoon
Concerned Citizen
Posts: 8,210
Re: 2012 Republican Primary Predictions
«
Reply #21 on:
November 14, 2011, 10:02:56 AM »
«
Edited:
November 14, 2011, 08:50:12 PM
by
fezzyfestoon »
I just changed the overall map for the first time. SWEET. Virginia to Romney, thank you very much.
EDIT: AND Nebraska, whaaaat
Logged
True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)
Ernest
Moderators
Atlas Legend
Posts: 41,139
Re: 2012 Republican Primary Predictions
«
Reply #22 on:
November 14, 2011, 09:56:07 PM »
«
Edited:
November 14, 2011, 10:04:47 PM
by
True Federalist »
While I hadn't done so intentionally, of the predictions favorable to Newt:
https://uselectionatlas.org/PRED/PRESIDENT/2012R/pred.php?sort=9
I currently have the most favorable:
https://uselectionatlas.org/PRED/PRESIDENT/2012R/pred.php?action=indpred&id=410
(I only have Newt winning California, Utah, and some of the other later states because I assume Mitt will have conceded by then.)
Logged
Mr. Morden
Atlas Legend
Posts: 42,725
Re: 2012 Republican Primary Predictions
«
Reply #23 on:
November 15, 2011, 03:06:38 AM »
Quote from: True Federalist on November 14, 2011, 09:56:07 PM
(I only have Newt winning California, Utah, and some of the other later states because I assume Mitt will have conceded by then.)
Romney will win Utah even if he's conceded. (Just like Dean won Vermont after he'd dropped out.)
Logged
True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)
Ernest
Moderators
Atlas Legend
Posts: 41,139
Re: 2012 Republican Primary Predictions
«
Reply #24 on:
November 15, 2011, 08:20:23 PM »
Quote from: Mr. Morden on November 15, 2011, 03:06:38 AM
Quote from: True Federalist on November 14, 2011, 09:56:07 PM
(I only have Newt winning California, Utah, and some of the other later states because I assume Mitt will have conceded by then.)
Romney will win Utah even if he's conceded. (Just like Dean won Vermont after he'd dropped out.)
Will Mitt even be on the ballot in Utah? Given that Utah is the very last GOP primary for now, if Mitt concedes early enough his campaign might not file and/or ask for a refund of the filing fee.
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