2012 Republican Primary Predictions

[Dave Leip]

Hi,
The 2012 Republican Primary Predictions are now enabled.  Please report any issues.

Summary Compiled Map

[tmthforu94]

Thank you Dave!

[Thomas D]

Awesome.

Thanks, Dave.

[Trends are real, and I f**king hate it]

Thank you Dave!

[Phony Moderate]

Thank you Dave!

[Kaine for Senate '18]

Thank you Dave!

[Vosem]

And now Paul has a state.

The map is misleading to some extent; Perry wins lots of low-population, large states, while Romney wins denser, New England states. Since those that predicted Romney would win Arizona were generally more confident than those that predicted Perry do so, I counted Arizona for Romney, whereas I split Wisconsin 50-50.

EC count (obviously PR not included), using above method:

Mitt Romney 282
Rick Perry 243
Michele Bachmann 10
Ron Paul 3

Which looks about right.

[Duke David]

Why is Ron Paul only supposed to win one state? I thought he were so popular?

[Thomas D]

Why is Ron Paul only supposed to win one state? I thought he were so popular?

He's fairly well liked. But most of the people here don't think he'll win any states.

[A-Bob]

Why is Ron Paul only supposed to win one state? I thought he were so popular?

He's extremely popular amongst his vocal supporters, but no one else outside of the democratic party

[Psychic Octopus]

Why is Ron Paul only supposed to win one state? I thought he were so popular?

He's extremely popular amongst his vocal supporters, but no one else outside of the democratic party

Understatement of the century.

[Vosem]

New total, pre-Cain begins winning states (I predict he'll be ahead of Perry in a week):

Mitt Romney 339
Rick Perry 189
Michele Bachmann 10

Paul lost Alaska to Romney, and Romney got a bunch of states from Perry.

[Trends are real, and I f**king hate it]

Don't we need a new color to represent Cain ? Purple basically means "miscellaneous candidates".

[A-Bob]

Don't we need a new color to represent Cain ? Purple basically means "miscellaneous candidates".

^

Will others get colors as they come into major play. I'm thinking Cain, Gingrich, and possibly Christie if he enters.

[Psychic Octopus]

I think we need to replace Huntsman with someone else, since Cain and Gingrich both do better than him and don't have their own colors.

[Penelope]

It may be prudent to give Cain a new color, as well as Gingrich.

Perhaps Huntsman's red can be swapped to Cain, and Bachmann's orange to Gingrich?

[Mehmentum]

I must say atlas users are very slow on responding to Perry's complete implosion.

[Vosem]

OK, we're down to a two-way race between Romney and Perry. Romney clearly leads:

Mitt Romney 360
Rick Perry 178

Cain has still not broken through anywhere; it'll probably start in Georgia.

[OAM]

I must say atlas users are very slow on responding to Perry's complete implosion.

Well, I can only judge from my own opinions, but I believe there's two things at work here.

1)  There's a lot of flux right now, things changing fast, etc, and no one's really sure how it'll even be next week.

2)  People's opinions of Cain in particular are changing pretty fast.  Some thing he's a fad, some think he's here to stay, even more aren't sure either way...

I personally was going to wait until things settle to make my next version, but it'd been awhile, so I made one today.

[Biden Fan Against Populism]

Romney: 282
Cain: 177
Perry: 69
Bachmann: 10

I've been hearing lately that some big money donors are giving Gingrich a second look, though, so I may revisit this.

[A-Bob]

Gingrich has his own color. I guess Cain will stay with purple?

[fezzyfestoon]

I just changed the overall map for the first time. SWEET. Virginia to Romney, thank you very much.

EDIT: AND Nebraska, whaaaat

[True Federalist]

While I hadn't done so intentionally, of the predictions favorable to Newt:

https://uselectionatlas.org/PRED/PRESIDENT/2012R/pred.php?sort=9

I currently have the most favorable:

https://uselectionatlas.org/PRED/PRESIDENT/2012R/pred.php?action=indpred&id=410

(I only have Newt winning California, Utah, and some of the other later states because I assume Mitt will have conceded by then.)

[Mr. Morden]

(I only have Newt winning California, Utah, and some of the other later states because I assume Mitt will have conceded by then.)

Romney will win Utah even if he's conceded.  (Just like Dean won Vermont after he'd dropped out.)

[True Federalist]

(I only have Newt winning California, Utah, and some of the other later states because I assume Mitt will have conceded by then.)

Romney will win Utah even if he's conceded.  (Just like Dean won Vermont after he'd dropped out.)

Will Mitt even be on the ballot in Utah?  Given that Utah is the very last GOP primary for now, if Mitt concedes early enough his campaign might not file and/or ask for a refund of the filing fee.