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  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Election Predictions (Moderator: muon2)
  2012 Republican Primary Predictions
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Author Topic: 2012 Republican Primary Predictions  (Read 28626 times)
Dave Leip
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« on: September 09, 2011, 10:36:38 am »
« edited: September 09, 2011, 11:47:41 am by Dave Leip »

Hi,
The 2012 Republican Primary Predictions are now enabled.  Please report any issues.

Summary Compiled Map
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tmthforu94
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« Reply #1 on: September 09, 2011, 04:34:58 pm »

Thank you Dave! Smiley
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Thomas D
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« Reply #2 on: September 09, 2011, 05:55:48 pm »

Awesome.

Thanks, Dave.
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Antonio V
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« Reply #3 on: September 11, 2011, 12:13:54 pm »

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Phony Moderate
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« Reply #4 on: September 11, 2011, 12:38:39 pm »

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Kaine for Senate '18
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« Reply #5 on: September 11, 2011, 06:53:27 pm »

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Vosem
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« Reply #6 on: September 11, 2011, 08:46:46 pm »

And now Paul has a state.

The map is misleading to some extent; Perry wins lots of low-population, large states, while Romney wins denser, New England states. Since those that predicted Romney would win Arizona were generally more confident than those that predicted Perry do so, I counted Arizona for Romney, whereas I split Wisconsin 50-50.

EC count (obviously PR not included), using above method:

Mitt Romney 282
Rick Perry 243
Michele Bachmann 10
Ron Paul 3

Which looks about right.
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Duke David
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« Reply #7 on: September 12, 2011, 03:49:20 am »

Why is Ron Paul only supposed to win one state? I thought he were so popular?
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Thomas D
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« Reply #8 on: September 12, 2011, 05:20:49 pm »

Why is Ron Paul only supposed to win one state? I thought he were so popular?

He's fairly well liked. But most of the people here don't think he'll win any states.
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A-Bob
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« Reply #9 on: October 01, 2011, 05:45:43 pm »

Why is Ron Paul only supposed to win one state? I thought he were so popular?

He's extremely popular amongst his vocal supporters, but no one else outside of the democratic party
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Psychic Octopus
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« Reply #10 on: October 01, 2011, 07:11:47 pm »

Why is Ron Paul only supposed to win one state? I thought he were so popular?

He's extremely popular amongst his vocal supporters, but no one else outside of the democratic party

Understatement of the century.
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Vosem
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« Reply #11 on: October 01, 2011, 09:55:32 pm »

New total, pre-Cain begins winning states (I predict he'll be ahead of Perry in a week):

Mitt Romney 339
Rick Perry 189
Michele Bachmann 10

Paul lost Alaska to Romney, and Romney got a bunch of states from Perry.
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Antonio V
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« Reply #12 on: October 02, 2011, 03:38:21 am »

Don't we need a new color to represent Cain ? Purple basically means "miscellaneous candidates".
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A-Bob
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« Reply #13 on: October 02, 2011, 03:49:55 pm »

Don't we need a new color to represent Cain ? Purple basically means "miscellaneous candidates".

^

Will others get colors as they come into major play. I'm thinking Cain, Gingrich, and possibly Christie if he enters.
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Psychic Octopus
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« Reply #14 on: October 02, 2011, 04:56:11 pm »

I think we need to replace Huntsman with someone else, since Cain and Gingrich both do better than him and don't have their own colors.
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Penelope
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« Reply #15 on: October 05, 2011, 08:43:51 pm »

It may be prudent to give Cain a new color, as well as Gingrich.

Perhaps Huntsman's red can be swapped to Cain, and Bachmann's orange to Gingrich?
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Mehmentum
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« Reply #16 on: October 11, 2011, 05:34:40 pm »

I must say atlas users are very slow on responding to Perry's complete implosion.
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Vosem
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« Reply #17 on: October 16, 2011, 11:53:10 am »

OK, we're down to a two-way race between Romney and Perry. Romney clearly leads:

Mitt Romney 360
Rick Perry 178

Cain has still not broken through anywhere; it'll probably start in Georgia.
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OAM
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« Reply #18 on: October 16, 2011, 07:32:40 pm »

I must say atlas users are very slow on responding to Perry's complete implosion.

Well, I can only judge from my own opinions, but I believe there's two things at work here.

1)  There's a lot of flux right now, things changing fast, etc, and no one's really sure how it'll even be next week.

2)  People's opinions of Cain in particular are changing pretty fast.  Some thing he's a fad, some think he's here to stay, even more aren't sure either way...

I personally was going to wait until things settle to make my next version, but it'd been awhile, so I made one today.
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Biden Fan Against Populism
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« Reply #19 on: October 27, 2011, 05:11:35 pm »

Romney: 282
Cain: 177
Perry: 69
Bachmann: 10

I've been hearing lately that some big money donors are giving Gingrich a second look, though, so I may revisit this.
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A-Bob
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« Reply #20 on: November 11, 2011, 07:28:49 pm »

Gingrich has his own color. I guess Cain will stay with purple?
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fezzyfestoon
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« Reply #21 on: November 14, 2011, 10:02:56 am »
« Edited: November 14, 2011, 08:50:12 pm by fezzyfestoon »

I just changed the overall map for the first time. SWEET. Virginia to Romney, thank you very much. Tongue

EDIT: AND Nebraska, whaaaat
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True Federalist
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« Reply #22 on: November 14, 2011, 09:56:07 pm »
« Edited: November 14, 2011, 10:04:47 pm by True Federalist »

While I hadn't done so intentionally, of the predictions favorable to Newt:

https://uselectionatlas.org/PRED/PRESIDENT/2012R/pred.php?sort=9

I currently have the most favorable:

https://uselectionatlas.org/PRED/PRESIDENT/2012R/pred.php?action=indpred&id=410

(I only have Newt winning California, Utah, and some of the other later states because I assume Mitt will have conceded by then.)
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #23 on: November 15, 2011, 03:06:38 am »

(I only have Newt winning California, Utah, and some of the other later states because I assume Mitt will have conceded by then.)

Romney will win Utah even if he's conceded.  (Just like Dean won Vermont after he'd dropped out.)
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True Federalist
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« Reply #24 on: November 15, 2011, 08:20:23 pm »

(I only have Newt winning California, Utah, and some of the other later states because I assume Mitt will have conceded by then.)

Romney will win Utah even if he's conceded.  (Just like Dean won Vermont after he'd dropped out.)


Will Mitt even be on the ballot in Utah?  Given that Utah is the very last GOP primary for now, if Mitt concedes early enough his campaign might not file and/or ask for a refund of the filing fee.
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