2012 Republican Primary Predictions (user search)
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Author Topic: 2012 Republican Primary Predictions  (Read 31008 times)
Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,165
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« on: September 11, 2011, 12:13:54 PM »
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,165
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« Reply #1 on: October 02, 2011, 03:38:21 AM »
Don't we need a new color to represent Cain ? Purple basically means "miscellaneous candidates".
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,165
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« Reply #2 on: December 19, 2011, 09:12:50 AM »
First prediction, partly based on 538's forecasts and partly personal guesswork due to the current trends.



Quote from: Restricted
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Of course, more serious predictions can be done only after Iowa.
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,165
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« Reply #3 on: January 03, 2012, 11:31:34 AM »
Quote from: Harry Hayfield on December 30, 2011, 06:37:10 PM
Is it me or has the compiled map suddenly shifted away from Romney (as a lot of states he was safe in has suddenly become marginal)?

Indeed. But meanwhile, he keeps stealing States to Gingrich (FL and SD recently, MO now being tied...). TX has also switched back to Perry for some reason.
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,165
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« Reply #4 on: January 03, 2012, 11:34:54 AM »
Final prediction before Iowa.



Of course everything might change after that.
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,165
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« Reply #5 on: January 04, 2012, 12:24:05 PM »


Updated prediction. SC is a guesswork, but I'm fairly confident Santorum will pull ahead there in next polls.

My Iowa prediction turned to be correct (unfortunately). Sad
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,165
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« Reply #6 on: January 06, 2012, 05:30:23 AM »
Quote from: Hatman on January 05, 2012, 01:31:53 PM
Quote from: Harry Hayfield on January 05, 2012, 10:51:48 AM
Quote from: Hatman on January 04, 2012, 11:59:34 PM
People who got it right:

Nym90
Miamiu1027
Nik
BushCountry
thebadger
K.Dobrev
Aguagon
Mark Warner 08
ConservRep
Frank5254
Xahar
KoZ
tmthforu94
Brian10
Antonio V
mitt2012
JamesGatz711
MilesC56
gobigreds
Stormyphil2
Psychic_Octopus
Hatman
Twindad46
Firoozi
jtchirico
OAM
Eagle95
tommy91
skittles075
spamage

I can't remember how the scoring goes for this, but I think (to reflect that the top three all got seven delegates each) that Romney and Santorum should score maximum points in Iowa, and Paul half points. Does that seem fair to everyone?

No. Romney won. Deal with it.

I also want to point out I was one of the few (maybe just 2 people?) who actually was brave enough to indicate that it was a lean Romney state. In hindsight, that was very ballsy of me.

Sorry, but no. The race was objectively a tossup. Whether Romney won or not, you can't say it was a good thing to say the race was "lean Romney".
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