2024

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

Pennsylvania isn't going to be a Republican state--Allegheny, Lackawanna, and Philadelphia alone make it competitive.

In addition, I honestly fail to see a D trend in Arizona, Texas, Georgia, the Dakotas, and especially not Tennessee. Once the Republicans get back on track and move to the center after another 2 or 3 straight losses, they'll appeal more to Hispanics, a group they'd do better with if they stopped race-baiting.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

I predict something in between today and Scenario B. Ignoring the Lean/Likely/Safe, here's a possibility:

Of course, the type of candidate on both is still important; Al Gore did better than John Kerry in the South because he was running as a moderate populist, with the latter forced into an anti-war, socially liberal position that's toxic to Southern voters. Similarly, a John Thune won't do as well in the West and New Hampshire as a Jon Huntsman or Chris Christie.