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  Talk Elections
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Presidential Election Trends (Moderator: Virginiá)
  2024
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Poll
Question: Who wins in 2024?
#1
Democrat
 
#2
Republican
 
#3
269-269
 
#4
I have no idea
 
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Partisan results

Total Voters: 15

Author Topic: 2024  (Read 3509 times)
April 2, 2020 over one million cases.
tmcusa2
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« on: September 06, 2011, 09:49:05 pm »


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Trends are real, and I f**king hate it
Antonio V
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« Reply #1 on: September 07, 2011, 03:47:41 am »

Strong numbers in the West, Florida and Northeast is enough to give dems a win.
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greenforest32
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« Reply #2 on: September 07, 2011, 04:30:30 am »
« Edited: September 07, 2011, 04:38:39 am by greenforest32 »

Democrats.

The Southwest is going to turn over to the left strongly from the Hispanic voter population growth. By 2024 Arizona and Texas will be voting Democrat in national elections.

Just look at Texas in 2008. It was McCain @ ~55% and Obama @ ~44%: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election_in_Texas,_2008

Most polls for 2012 show that 11-12% gap closing to 5% or less. In fact the recent polls show Perry LOSING to Obama in Texas in 2012. Good luck keeping Texas electoral votes for Republicans after 2012.
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Trends are real, and I f**king hate it
Antonio V
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« Reply #3 on: September 07, 2011, 04:56:45 am »

Democrats.

The Southwest is going to turn over to the left strongly from the Hispanic voter population growth. By 2024 Arizona and Texas will be voting Democrat in national elections.

Just look at Texas in 2008. It was McCain @ ~55% and Obama @ ~44%: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election_in_Texas,_2008

Most polls for 2012 show that 11-12% gap closing to 5% or less. In fact the recent polls show Perry LOSING to Obama in Texas in 2012. Good luck keeping Texas electoral votes for Republicans after 2012.

Really ? Huh Reliable polls ? Huh

I have difficulties to imagine Texas already voting dem in 2012 barring a dem landslide, let alone if a texan is on the ballot...
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greenforest32
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« Reply #4 on: September 07, 2011, 06:23:42 am »

Democrats.

The Southwest is going to turn over to the left strongly from the Hispanic voter population growth. By 2024 Arizona and Texas will be voting Democrat in national elections.

Just look at Texas in 2008. It was McCain @ ~55% and Obama @ ~44%: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election_in_Texas,_2008

Most polls for 2012 show that 11-12% gap closing to 5% or less. In fact the recent polls show Perry LOSING to Obama in Texas in 2012. Good luck keeping Texas electoral votes for Republicans after 2012.

Really ? Huh Reliable polls ? Huh

I have difficulties to imagine Texas already voting dem in 2012 barring a dem landslide, let alone if a texan is on the ballot...

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Statewide_opinion_polling_for_the_United_States_presidential_election,_2012#Texas
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Snowstalker's Last Stand
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« Reply #5 on: September 07, 2011, 03:06:37 pm »

Pennsylvania isn't going to be a Republican state--Allegheny, Lackawanna, and Philadelphia alone make it competitive.

In addition, I honestly fail to see a D trend in Arizona, Texas, Georgia, the Dakotas, and especially not Tennessee. Once the Republicans get back on track and move to the center after another 2 or 3 straight losses, they'll appeal more to Hispanics, a group they'd do better with if they stopped race-baiting.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #6 on: September 07, 2011, 05:06:06 pm »

Scenario 1: Dems become more Libertarian, GOP becomes more Populist (Obama probably wins in 2012 and balances the budget)



Basically the GOP locks in its Ohio Valley/Rust Belt gains and the Dems lock in their Southern and Western gains.

Scenario 2: Dems become more Populist, GOP becomes more Libertarian (Obama probably loses in 2012 and Dems rebuild by running against budget cuts)



A pretty radically different electoral map: The Northeast and the interior South would be the new swing regions.  I'd favor Scenario 1.
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Snowstalker's Last Stand
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« Reply #7 on: September 07, 2011, 05:41:41 pm »

I predict something in between today and Scenario B. Ignoring the Lean/Likely/Safe, here's a possibility:



Of course, the type of candidate on both is still important; Al Gore did better than John Kerry in the South because he was running as a moderate populist, with the latter forced into an anti-war, socially liberal position that's toxic to Southern voters. Similarly, a John Thune won't do as well in the West and New Hampshire as a Jon Huntsman or Chris Christie.
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cavalcade
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« Reply #8 on: September 07, 2011, 06:28:05 pm »

I pretty much agree with the OP.  Just flip TX, VA, IA, and MI to the Democrats and NH and FL to the Republicans.
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April 2, 2020 over one million cases.
tmcusa2
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« Reply #9 on: September 07, 2011, 07:10:07 pm »

The point of the map was to show how the Democrats need to focus on swing states like Florida, Nevada, and Arizona which have gained electoral votes, instead of states that lost electoral votes in the last census, namely Iowa, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Michigan. It isn't so much to suggest a possible result, but to show where the new swings states are going to be going forward. If you go to the calculator for years over the last 50 years you will see that the states in the map only reached 270 in 2000, you will see a gradual increase in the totals for the map which finally leveled off in 2010. Will the numbers continue to go up? That is the question.
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April 2, 2020 over one million cases.
tmcusa2
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« Reply #10 on: September 07, 2011, 07:23:03 pm »

Obama won all the states that Lincoln won in 1860 and a few more. This shows how the map has completed flipped in the old "Union" states. If Obama can hold onto three Lincoln states Ohio, NH, and Iowa he will get 270 electoral votes. This is a scenario which is quite different from the map I posted. The problem with the Ohio, NH, Iowa combination is that after 2020 Ohio is likely to lose electoral votes and the candidate in 2024 would have to win at least one of the Rocky mountain states or a southern state.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #11 on: September 07, 2011, 11:54:41 pm »

Also, one thing that shows pretty clearly in these maps is that the Democrats could be locked out of a Senate majority for a long time if they lose ground in New England.  They could end up with a situation where there are <20 Democratic leaning states in a 50/50 election.   
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #12 on: September 08, 2011, 12:01:30 am »

I predict something in between today and Scenario B. Ignoring the Lean/Likely/Safe, here's a possibility:



Of course, the type of candidate on both is still important; Al Gore did better than John Kerry in the South because he was running as a moderate populist, with the latter forced into an anti-war, socially liberal position that's toxic to Southern voters. Similarly, a John Thune won't do as well in the West and New Hampshire as a Jon Huntsman or Chris Christie.

I'm reasonably confident that NC will vote like a southern enclave of NY/New England by 2024.  Once Charlotte develops Fairfax-style multiethnic suburbs it's all over.  I'd say there's a 50/50 chance that the same thing happens to Georgia.
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