Ontario 2011 (6th October)

[Antonio the Sixth]

When will we get the first results ?

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

Use google to find out his name, then google his name within the past week

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

When will we get the first results ?

8 hours 30 minutes

About 9:15 local time is when things should start to come in.

[Antonio the Sixth]

When will we get the first results ?

8 hours 30 minutes

About 9:15 local time is when things should start to come in.

8:30 EST ? Heck, that means I won't be able to know the results before tomorrow...

[lilTommy]

Really? thats it! ... thats Liberal dirty tactics at it again... digging up anything from a year or years ago to try and smear... this time in a riding the liberals might have lost. The guys a poverty activits! i'm surprised he didn't say Liberals and tories eat children at the way (the tories in particular) deal with poverty. Was it stupid to post yes, partisan yes... but do i remember posts i made a year ago on facebook? hell no! lol

Meh, hes no star candidate, and the riding should be competative regardless so i don't think its a total loss just yet, its not my top riding for a pick up. If someone decided that this was the reason they wont vote for the NDP they weren't really going to in the first place.

How many people think that homophobic hateful and dishonest piece of crap leaflet the tories were throwing about will hurt them? i doubt not much outside the 416 where really, they weren't going to win much anyway outside the old suburbs and with some ehtnic groups it might play well (sorry but its true, many newcomers and old white people are very socially conservative)

[Filuwaúrdjan]

How accurate do you all think the polls are? Obviously not being on the ground I've no feeling for that. I ask because they've moved about so much.

[lilTommy]

I think the polls should be about on par with: Libs 37-40%; PC 33-35%; NDP 21-25%... It will depend on how well the parties can pull the vote, sounds like its going to be a higher voter turnout as well so that could be a good thing for Mcguinty (an anti-tory vote) or a bad thing (a change vote for the NDP/Tories, more the NDP i think)
But what will be interesting/exciting will be all the three way races, this is going to be a very riding by riding election, all three parties have been very strategic to target key ridings they feel they can win/need to hold. Also regions are very different here so it depends on how accurate the samplings were.
In retrospect, regional large polls should be done instead of province wide polls.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

9:15pm EST is when results should start coming in.

[Franzl]

9:15pm EST is when results should start coming in.

When do polls close? Seems pretty late.

Are their exit polls in provincal elections in Canada? Are they worthless American-like ones or are they Euro-style ones that can tell you within a point or two what the result is?

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

9pm

[Holmes]

Exit polls would be pretty useless for Canadian elections, and all over the place. It would be sort of like exit polling for House elections.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Exit polls would be pretty useless for Canadian elections, and all over the place. It would be sort of like exit polling for House elections.

No more so than (say) Britain or France.

[Franzl]

Exit polls would be pretty useless for Canadian elections, and all over the place. It would be sort of like exit polling for House elections.

No more so than (say) Britain or France.

Yeah the British exit poll was extremely good last year.

I may be somewhat too used to Germany, Austria, etc., where they really nail it down to fractions of a point usually.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

NB has an exit poll every election and everyone always wants to hear it.

PEI has never had one, and probably never will, nobody cares.

Depends on where you are.

[DL]

There is not much point doing an exit poll in a provincial election in Canada. In Ontario for example all the polls close at 9pm, the province is all one time zone and within half an hour of the polls closing you have a pretty good idea of what the outcome is.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

An hour after the polls close you know, within 10 sets, what's going to happen.

Also, my personal projection, updated

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

LIVE
http://www.sunnewsnetwork.ca/watch-live.html

[mileslunn]

Exit polls really only work in those that use proportional representation or FTFP elections where you get uniform swings.  If the swings are not uniform then they can be misleading.  Federally Ipsos usually does a large one but they don't interview people as they exit the station, but rather after they have voted and this is used more to track how certain demographics voted.  For example, their poll showed only 12% of Muslims went Conservative last May, but 54% of Jews did while in 2006 it was only 25% so that would explain why ridings like Thornhill or Mount Royal swung so heavily towards the Conservatives (even though they still didn't win Mount Royal).

Anyways, My guess is by 10:00 PM the networks will have projected a Liberal government, but it won't be until much later that the project it will be a minority or majority.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

It would have to be very, very large for figures for small minority groups to be worth much, fwiw.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

The Manitoba NDP was able to rack up very small wins in very many ridings. The Ontario Liberals are positioned to do something similar. A tie in the popular vote, Liberal-PC, means a Liberal majority.

[RogueBeaver]

The Manitoba NDP was able to rack up very small wins in very many ridings. The Ontario Liberals are positioned to do something similar. A tie in the popular vote, Liberal-PC, means a Liberal majority.

And anything less than a PC majority means another McGuinty term. 2007 all over again.

[Holmes]

Teddy, you have the Soo between Liberal/NDP, yet Sudbury as Liberal?

[Smid]

The Elections Ontario unofficial results seem to be going to be updated at a separate website: http://www.wemakevotingeasy.ca/

[Holmes]

Stormont-Dundas-South Glengarry, Toronto Centre, Trinity-Spadina and Kenora-Rainy River polls will stay open an extra 30 minutes. Boo! Although, Kenora-Rainy River is really the only interesting one.

http://news.nationalpost.com/2011/10/06/results-delayed-in-four-ridings-as-poll-hours-extended/

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qJ9y0A1kYYs The song at the start of this is awesome. I'll play it once we hit 9.