Ontario 2011 (6th October)

[Hash]

Canvassing tomorrow!

[Hatman 🍁]

Canvassing tomorrow!

Hopefully in Orleans and nowhere close to here!

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

I really cant wait for 6th october. I will be doing maths of course to look at the results as they come out. I will also use the lift in my building to get to the lorry so that I can do something else british LOL

[DL]

New Angus Reid online poll of 1,000 in today's Toronto Star shows NDP surge is real. Numbers in brackets show change from their previous poll over a week ago:

PC 36% (down 2)
Libs 32% (up 1)
NDP 26% (up 2)
green 6% (down 1)

The poll also has the NDP actually LEADING in Toronto with 35% to LIB 34% and Tories a distant third. Seems unbelievable but then no one believed the polls showing the NDP surge in Quebec. Seems to me that the ONDP is seriously cutting into the "anti-Liberal" vote that Hudak thought was all going to go for him.

[Hatman 🍁]

Interesting. Maybe the Tories are in the lead again? I'd like to see some more polls before making another projection.

[Holmes]

Tories a distant third

Anything to deny Rocco Rossi! I wanna see him go down in flames, but, I'm sure his race will be rather close.

The poll shows Horwath with the best numbers, so I can't wait until the debate. And screw McGuinty for declining a northern debate. He's done there.

[Hatman 🍁]

Northern Ontario should have a devolved assembly like Scotland

[Holmes]

Not in a million years if it gives the region some autonomy. The region is vast, rich full of resources, but neglected and empty (relative to the south). That's why it's so easy for a government to control the north, and do what it wants with it, with hardly any repercussion. The region is just full of middle-to-low working class families whose jobs revolve around those resources (and even those jobs are being exported), and sh**tty retail or fast-food jobs. So that's why the north usually votes as a block.

Sure, Horwath promised a special Northern Ontario committee in Queen's Park if she's elected, and that's nice, and the NDP is really the only party that cares the most for the region, but they could jump ship to another party at any moment. The fact that the NDP hasn't been in government provincially for so long, or federally ever, really helps them the most in the north.

[Hatman 🍁]

It definitely should be its own province. It gets its own Brier team for pete's sake!

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

It definitely should be its own province. It gets its own Brier team for pete's sake!

Aye
North of 47... or was it 44? like on Krago's map

[DL]

Yet another Ontario poll shocker - this time from Leger:

PC - 36% (up 4 from last election)
Liberals - 33% (down 9)
NDP - 29% (up 12 !!)
that leaves 2% for Greens and other which would be down 7% from 2007.

I'm an NDP supporter but I'm actually starting to get scared that if this trend continues we might actually win this thing and while the ONDP has some good people - they are NOT ready to be the government just yet. This is starting to bring back memories of 1990!

[MaxQue]

2011, realignment year in Canadian politics?

[DL]

Imagine if the NDP leapfrogs over the Liberals in both Ontario AND Newfoundland!

[Antonio the Sixth]

I don't really care whether NDP or Liberals win this, what worries me is to see the Tories still ahead.

[minionofmidas]

What would be a likely seat distribution if the three parties poll equal shares?

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

What would be a likely seat distribution if the three parties poll equal shares?

Easy to find out. Go here
http://esm.ubc.ca/forecast.php
and here
http://esm.ubc.ca/ON11/forecast.php
play around by setting the parties, except the NDP, below 1.0 until they all balance (0.4, and 0.53 should do it) Eliminate the greens for good measure by setting them at 0
and you get your answer
Lib - 46
PC - 32
NDP -29

[minionofmidas]

Uniform swings of that sort aren't really much more likely or sophisticated than of the other type... but I guess I'd take that result.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

Actually by reducing the number and not applying any swing you don't get a uniform swing at all.

[Holmes]

Imagine if the NDP leapfrogs over the Liberals in both Ontario AND Newfoundland!

Well, in Newfoundland's case, that would mean 2-3 NDP seats to 1-2 Liberals seats? So not exactly a strong opposition mandate.

(Leger also says 39% Con, 33% NDP, 17% Liberal, and 6% Green federally, with Bloc at 23% in Quebec)

[minionofmidas]

Actually by reducing the number and not applying any swing you don't get a uniform swing at all.

Sure. It's just following a different rule, but it's still regular.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

Actually by reducing the number and not applying any swing you don't get a uniform swing at all.

Sure. It's just following a different rule, but it's still regular.

How so?

[lilTommy]

I don't really care whether NDP or Liberals win this, what worries me is to see the Tories still ahead.

I think Leger showed regional breakdowns right? and in Ontario just like Canada regional votes will decide seats? with these numbers it still looks like there will be no majority in any instance but are we getting a sense of the distribution of seats yet with those two polls?

The also said the NDP wasn't prepared to be the Official Opposition and so far, they've done a pretty darn good job up there.

[Hatman 🍁]

Looks like a very weak Tory minority, but I'll wait for one more poll before doing another projection.

[Hatman 🍁]

Leger poll crosstabs actually show the NDP at just 26%: http://www.legermarketing.com/documents/POL/119193ENG.pdf

And oddly enough, the NDP is at 32% in Eastern Ontario which doesn't make any sense, unless they include part of northern Ontario in that.

[bgwah]

Would the Liberals and NDP form a coalition government if necessary? (Sorry I haven't read the entire thread)