Ontario 2011 (6th October)

[DL]

A couple more poll shockers out of Ontario today:
 
Ipsos says Libs 38%, PCs 37%, NDP 24%
Nanos says Libs 38%, PCs 35%, NDP 24%
 
…looks like Hudak is flopping big-time and this could be the 1985 Lib/NDP accord all over again!

Its also worth noting that the conventional wisdom was that the only way the Liberals could win was by suppressing the NDP vote - yet they seem to be moving ahead on their own despite NDP support being at a 18 year high!

[Hatman 🍁]

NDP vote is down slightly, but very interesting.

[adma]

Well, it's a more "normal" figure than that 40-29 "did they get the parties reversed?!?" poll.  (And IIRC, did some polls put John Tory similarly close-behind at a similar stage of the 2007 campaign?)

[MaxQue]

If McGuinty manages to win again, that would ashaming for PC.

They were leading in 2007, Tory managed to lose it.
If that happen again in 2011, they ought to select a better leader for their own sake. Or taking courses with Federal Conservatives, which are able to win Ontario.

[DL]

NDP vote is down slightly, but very interesting.

How is the NDP vote "down slightly" the previous Ipsos poll had the NDP at 23% and this latest one says 24% and the last Nanos poll had the NDP at 22.8% and this one says 24.3%. So that is UP slightly in both polls.

[Hatman 🍁]

Well, Im comparing polling firms. The NDP was at 26% in one poll last week.

[Hatman 🍁]

Another Ontario projection!

http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.com/2011/09/ontario-election-2011-prediction_13.html

Liberals on the cusp of a majority!

[Smid]

Great work, mate!

My one thought on it is that in the two Northern Ontario seats you've classed as too close to call, the Greens vote last election were in the order of 5% or 5.5%, so I think that even if the Green vote is flowing to the Liberals, it may not be enough in those Northern ridings to prevent the NDP gaining those two seats. Mind you, I understand that you're always careful to not over-estimate your party's chances.

[lilTommy]

For the NDP, its really going to be a riding by riding fight then...
a) NDP/Tory battle ridings, to pitch the NDP as the alternative to the tories, pushing a similar message that came across in May which worked rather well (so Essex, Oshawa), trying to attract as much of the small and big L Liberal vote.
b) NDP/Liberal battles, to fight the strategic voting anti-hudak/harris message, voting NDP is not wasted and your vote will matter in electing a NewDem (ala May), it will be about the local candidates too; the NDP being the party that will be pushing for a progressive government as 8years of liberal government has proven to be a failure (so YSW, Davenport, OC, WW, The Northern ridings).
c) Three way fights, The battle is going to be very local especially, very candidate oriented... BGM, SSW, SRR (maybe SautSM as well)

With the Liberals up, its a bigger fight a head but the NDP is still strong so this year it dosen't seem like the Strategic voting is working as much as the Liberals would like... they seem to be attacking every NDP announcement with "it will cost jobs..."

[Hatman 🍁]

I am convinced that the Liberals are telling people in Ottawa Centre not to vote NDP because it might split the vote for the Tories to win. A lot of people who voted for Dewar are going to vote Liberal because they fear vote splitting.  Something fishy is up, because unless they were told otherwise, a quick google search will tell them the Tories dont have a snowball's chance of hell of winning this riding.

[MaxQue]

I am convinced that the Liberals are telling people in Ottawa Centre not to vote NDP because it might split the vote for the Tories to win. A lot of people who voted for Dewar are going to vote Liberal because they fear vote splitting.  Something fishy is up, because unless they were told otherwise, a quick google search will tell them the Tories dont have a snowball's chance of hell of winning this riding.

Surprise!
It is the only thing than centrist parties are able to do. Scaring left-wing voters about the right and scaring right-wing voters about the right.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I am convinced that the Liberals are telling people in Ottawa Centre not to vote NDP because it might split the vote for the Tories to win. A lot of people who voted for Dewar are going to vote Liberal because they fear vote splitting.  Something fishy is up, because unless they were told otherwise, a quick google search will tell them the Tories dont have a snowball's chance of hell of winning this riding.

How shocking that canvassers from a party with 'Liberal' in the title would do such a thing. Shocked, shocked, shocked, I am.

Tell them it's a lie and (if you need to) bring the results of the federal election with you...

[lilTommy]

Regional Breakdowns!!
http://www.ipsos-na.com/news-polls/pressrelease.aspx?id=5330

LOVE that they broke the "GTA" up, combined that drastically skus the reality of things...

GTA/Hamilton-Niagara (905): Lib 41%, PCs 38% NDP 20%
Toronto (416): Lib 40%, NDP 31% PCs 28%
Central: PC 40%, Lib 35%, NDP 24%, Green 1%
Eastern: PC 46%, Lib 36%, NDP 17%, Green 1%
Southwestern: PC 40%, Lib 34%, NDP 25%
Northern: Lib 44%, NDP 30%, PC 23%, Green 2% - on Rabble they say the sample was 44 people! so take this with a grain of salt (not sure where to find sample sizes)

Its a complete lie! in the "old city of TO" the tories have almost zero chance of winning anywhere... the tories have winnable ridings in the "old burbs" of Etobicoke/NY/Scarborough... and in Scarborough those are mostly now three way races. The same can be said for Windsor and Hamilton, the Tories are just not a factor anymore.

[DL]

The full tables with sample sizes are there as a link on the Ipsos page and they have the sample sizes. 905 does NOT include Hamilton it is just the 905 suburbs of the GTA. Hamilton/Niagara is considered "central"

[lilTommy]

The full tables with sample sizes are there as a link on the Ipsos page and they have the sample sizes. 905 does NOT include Hamilton it is just the 905 suburbs of the GTA. Hamilton/Niagara is considered "central"

Ok thanks!... the NDP at 20% in the 905... like Mississauga/Brampton/York/Durham! that gives me even more hope of at least one pickup if the NDP can concentrate (i'm thinking BGM here or Oshawa, but BGM would be a nicer win)

[Holmes]

Maybe, but Oshawa makes more sense. Labour city and all. Don't see it happening though.

lol@ Liberals at 44% in Northern Ontario. That tickles me. Did they count everything north of Barrie as Northern or something? Still, that would probably give tied PC/NDP numbers. Garbage.

[Hatman 🍁]

Just when we thought the Liberals were winning Abacus releases their first poll:

PC: 41
Lib: 32
NDP: 20
Grn: 6
 
But then again, Abacus is the official pollster for the Sun, so I there may be bias It's hard to believe their CEO used to be a New Democrat.

[DL]

A new poll of 1,000 voters in the City of Toronto by Forum says Liberals 39%, NDP 30% and PCs at a catastrophic 24%. I don't know what the popular vote was in Toronto in the '07 ON election but I suspect that this is a pretty major NDP increase.

[lilTommy]

A new poll of 1,000 voters in the City of Toronto by Forum says Liberals 39%, NDP 30% and PCs at a catastrophic 24%. I don't know what the popular vote was in Toronto in the '07 ON election but I suspect that this is a pretty major NDP increase.

For the NDP, its double! at OntarioVotes2007 - http://www.cbc.ca/ontariovotes2007/ridings/#toronto

2007 seats  %             2011 Forum   2011 Ipsos-Reid
LIB -  33 - 45.64%         39%                     40%
PC -  7 -  29.85%           24%                     28%
NDP -  4 - 15.43%          30%                     31%
GRN  - 0 - 7.58%

So the clear losers so far in Toronto are indeed the Liberals, who if either poll pans out are 5-6% lower this time around. The tories are also down about the same in Forum, but pretty much unchanged in IR. The NDP has doubled since 2007... i'd say some of that will be increased strength in the 4 they hold but YSW & Davenport look to be wins; SSW & even SRR might be in play with these numbers too.

[DL]

Those are the GTA wide popular vote numbers you got from the CBC site. The numbers for Toronto itself in '07 were L 45%, PCs 24% and NDP 22% and Greens 8%. so the forum poll suggests the NDP is up 8 points, Libs down 6 and PCs flat as a pancake

[lilTommy]

Ahhh sorry, i grabbed the wrong numbers... but i think the message is still out there... Liberals down; NDP up; tories flat.

Sorry, early, coffee

[Hatman 🍁]

What did the NDP get federally in Toronto? And the other parties?

[DL]

I did a slightly crude estimate of the popular vote in Toronto in the federal election and it came out to Liberals 35%, Tories 32% and NDP 29% - so the NDP vote is if anything slightly higher in the provincial polls while the Tory vote is a lot lower and the Liberals somewhat higher. Almost all the seats the federal Tories won in Toronto were won by very narrow margins - so my prediction is that if these Toronto polls are right - The NDP gains two seats for sure and probably a third somewhere for a total of seven in Toronto while the get the other 15 unless the Tories manage to grab one or two max.

[lilTommy]

I did a slightly crude estimate of the popular vote in Toronto in the federal election and it came out to Liberals 35%, Tories 32% and NDP 29% - so the NDP vote is if anything slightly higher in the provincial polls while the Tory vote is a lot lower and the Liberals somewhat higher. Almost all the seats the federal Tories won in Toronto were won by very narrow margins - so my prediction is that if these Toronto polls are right - The NDP gains two seats for sure and probably a third somewhere for a total of seven in Toronto while the get the other 15 unless the Tories manage to grab one or two max.

I was on Rabble, and i saw these numbers:
Seats: Cons 9, NDP 8, Lib 6
Popular Vote: Lib 35%, Cons 31%, NDP 30%, Green 3%, Others 0%
Polling Divisions: NDP 35%, Lib 33%, Cons 32%, Green 0%

I don't think it changes what you said, 2 solid for the NDP (YSW, Davenport) and another battle, probably SSW, but i'd rather see the NDP win SRR.

[Hatman 🍁]

Interesting!

By the way, I got my first ever robo poll call today. Not sure who it was for. But whoever it was, the pronounced our candidate's name wrong.