Ontario 2011 (6th October)

[Smid]

Expect a new projection this evening based on the new poll.

Good! I was thinking about that on the tram this morning on my way to work, wondering when the next one will be up.

As for campaigns, I think I've probably been on more losing ones than winning ones - I often go to either marginal electorates or electorates where our presence is particularly weak and the party needs members on the ground to assist with the campaign. I've spent many an election day at booths where we might hope to get a third of the vote (bearing in mind we have only two major parties here).

[DL]

Another poll.... http://news.nationalpost.com/2011/09/01/liberals-narrow-pc-lead-in-ontario-poll/

Tories - 35%
Liberals - 30%
NDP - 26%

Interesting how the Toronto Star poll said it was a 3 way race with the NDP further behind, while the National Post had the NDP doing better, but completely ignores them in the headline and says it's not a 3 way race yet. (although, those numbers are suggest otherwise)

Especially given that according to this poll the Liberals are closer to coming in third than they are to coming in first!

[Хahar 🤔]

How important is this election for the federal Liberals? Should we assume that a disasterous showing may be the final blow, or should we go by the general 'no real connection between the federal and the provincial level' principle?

Canada's a very odd country politically, particularly in terms of the federal political structure. Voters treat federal elections as a referendum on provincial politics far more than the reverse.

[Hatman 🍁]

http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.com/2011/09/ontario-election-2011-prediction.html

Tory minority projected with the NDP at 19 seats.

[RogueBeaver]

Grits to unveil their platform tomorrow. "Four More Years" probably summarizes it in a sentence.


http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/ontariovotes2011/story/2011/09/02/liberals-unveil-platform.html

[RogueBeaver]

Dad: There is no deficit.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/national/ontario/dalton-mcguinty-makes-electoral-pitch-to-women-seniors-new-canadians/article2153430/

[Hatman 🍁]

New Nanos poll:

PC: 35 (-7)
Lib: 32 (-6)
NDP: 23 (+7)
Grn: 4 (+1)

Im not sure where the other 6% went

Undecideds are at 8% (down 8%)

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

Remember folks, so long as "Dad" is in second place, every insult against him is one step closer to a Hudak government.

[Hatman 🍁]

Much like the Harper minority governments, a Hudak minority government I can handle, and *prefer* over a McGuinty government. I just hope it doesn't lead to a Hudak majority 5 years from now, but rather an NDP government.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

Sure, if you want to kill public transit in the process.

[Smid]

Earl, when shall be the next prediction update? Will it be based on this Nanos poll, or will you wait for another poll or two to be released, and then average the results?

[Hatman 🍁]

Earl, when shall be the next prediction update? Will it be based on this Nanos poll, or will you wait for another poll or two to be released, and then average the results?

Im going to wait for more polls to come in. They will begin to flow in, and I don't have the time to do a projection every day, unfortunately. (I'm not using any computer programs, each riding is done individually)

[lilTommy]

Earl, when shall be the next prediction update? Will it be based on this Nanos poll, or will you wait for another poll or two to be released, and then average the results?

Im going to wait for more polls to come in. They will begin to flow in, and I don't have the time to do a projection every day, unfortunately. (I'm not using any computer programs, each riding is done individually)

GAH! so makes sense to have a handfull of polls then eh... reminds me of the "good old days", something to be said about putting all the effort in, usually the results are more accurate? we shall see...

http://www.facebook.com/#!/event.php?eid=278377288845954 - Sorry i could only find the Facebook link but the NDP will launch their campaign in Thunder bay *cough* targets! *cough* from this, the NDP WILL be focusing on the winning over those northern seats they hold federally, and they have a good shot at many of them.

[Hash]

Much like the Harper minority governments, a Hudak minority government I can handle, and *prefer* over a McGuinty government. I just hope it doesn't lead to a Hudak majority 5 years from now, but rather an NDP government.

Disgusting but hardly surprising.

[MaxQue]

I wish to say than I don't approve of the "Anybody but Liberals" thinking of Earl, even if I understand his reasons.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

When I do go and vote for McIdiot, I plan to literally hold my nose.

Either that or, if I'm certain that the Grits will hold on to this riding, I might spoil my ballot.

[minionofmidas]

Somebody put the date of this election into the subject header or at least the opening post, or I'll have this man



raised from the dead to abduct him.

[Hatman 🍁]

Oh Lewis, that's what my blog is for!

Note to the haters: I still prefer a Liberal majority over a Tory majority, obviously.  With a Tory minority, we could see a Liberal+NDP coalition developed which is almost the best option!

[Franzl]

Sure, if you want to kill public transit in the process.

Is that what Conservatives are proposing?

[Holmes]

Sure, if you want to kill public transit in the process.

Is that what Conservatives are proposing?

A PC government would certainly help and enable Ford into killing transit in Toronto even more.

[mileslunn]

What do you guys think the impact will be of McGuinty's $10,000 tax credit for hiring an immigrant.  While one can argue whether it is a good or bad policy, this almost seems like a John Tory moment.  If I were McGuinty I would find a way to get this off the front page ASAP before the Tories can capitalize on it.

[RogueBeaver]

What do you guys think the impact will be of McGuinty's $10,000 tax credit for hiring an immigrant.  While one can argue whether it is a good or bad policy, this almost seems like a John Tory moment.  If I were McGuinty I would find a way to get this off the front page ASAP before the Tories can capitalize on it.

I think Walkom summed it up well in his column today, even if I disagree with his conclusion. Of all the things to criticize in McGuinty's record, this would be pretty far down my list.

[lilTommy]

I think that was a wrong move made with good intensions... but in the end will benefit the NDP. Why? the NDP has a similar plan BUT isn't specific on immigrants but rather ALL ontarians...

From their policy book --> Reward Job creators... create a 10% tax credit for companies that invest in building, machinery and equipment.... create a training tax credit for companies to help their staff upgrade skills. Couple that with the NDP's plan to reduce the small business tax rate to 4%

And how will the liberals attach the NDP... with a video of the NDP van driving close (to me looks like more than a meter away but heck who knows!) to a cyclist. To me that was pathetic! It looks like the Liberals are desperate to hold even Toronto Centre!

[RogueBeaver]

I think that was a wrong move made with good intensions... but in the end will benefit the NDP. Why? the NDP has a similar plan BUT isn't specific on immigrants but rather ALL ontarians...

From their policy book --> Reward Job creators... create a 10% tax credit for companies that invest in building, machinery and equipment.... create a training tax credit for companies to help their staff upgrade skills. Couple that with the NDP's plan to reduce the small business tax rate to 4%

And how will the liberals attach the NDP... with a video of the NDP van driving close (to me looks like more than a meter away but heck who knows!) to a cyclist. To me that was pathetic! It looks like the Liberals are desperate to hold even Toronto Centre!

If you believe 308, McGuinty might lose his own riding. Hopefully Dad's done.

[lilTommy]

... In this case i don't believe 308, I believe McGuinty will still win Ottawa South. His brother held it federally in May after their disaster of a showing so i think the "family" have some personal strength there.

In 95, when the NDP was decimated, Rae still held on to York South.

NOW i could be wrong... In May Ignatieff lost Etobicoke-Lakeshore and in 90, Liberal Premier Peterson lost his London Centre seat so it could happen. I really believe that many seats are going to come down to local candidates and local conditions, especially since there will be so many ridings in play