Quinnipiac: Perry ahead by a modest margin

[Tender Branson]

Without Palin:

26% Perry
20% Romney
12% Bachmann
10% Paul
  5% Cain
  4% Gingrich
  2% Santorum
  1% Huntsman
  1% McCotter
19% Undecided

With Palin:

24% Perry
18% Romney
11% Palin
10% Bachmann
  9% Paul
  5% Cain
  3% Gingrich
  1% Santorum
  1% Huntsman
  1% McCotter
16% Undecided

From August 16 - 27, Quinnipiac University surveyed 2,730 registered voters with a margin of error of +/- 1.9 percentage points. Live interviewers call land lines and cell phones. The Republican primary included 1,185 voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.9 percent.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1295.xml?ReleaseID=1639

[King]

I have a feeling the next debate is going to be similar to the Dem 2008 debate where Obama and Clinton's 1 minute response lasted 5-6 minutes while Chris Dodd had 5 seconds.  Perry and Romney are clearly the ones to start carrying about.  The rest are now noise.

[tmthforu94]

This looks about right. I don't think it's time for Romney to start getting aggressive yet. I think the chance that Rick Perry says something dumb enough to bring him down several notches is still quite possible.

[Likely Voter]

The only thing keeping Romney relevant is that the conservative/evangelical/Tea Party vote is split. Romney is praying Palin jumps in or at least hopes that Cain and Bachmann stay in the race all the way through super Tuesday (Gingrich, McCotter and Santorum will be gone by then).

Does anyone think if it came down to Romney v Perry it would even be close?  

[tmthforu94]

The only thing keeping Romney relevant is that the conservative/evangelical/Tea Party vote is split. Romney is praying Palin jumps in or at least hopes that Cain and Bachmann stay in the race all the way through super Tuesday (Gingrich, McCotter and Santorum will be gone by then).

Does anyone think if it came down to Romney v Perry it would even be close?  

It depends on who has the momentum going into Super Tuesday. Romney's going to have to do well in the lead-off states in order to win this thing - he can't rely on a strong Super Tuesday performance. Romney is still polling decent in Iowa - if I were him I'd almost want to take a gamble and try to win both Iowa and New Hampshire, similar to his attempts in 2008. If he could pull that off he'd be in a very good position. Assuming he doesn't, however, Florida is a must-win state for him.

[Mr. Morden]

Super Tuesday is only going to have about 8-10 primaries this time, about half of which are southern states (TX, TN, VA, OK).  So I don't think Romney can "win" Super Tuesday.  He can only survive it.  The big coastal states like CA, NY, PA now don't come until late April or later.

[Likely Voter]

My point isnt really about Super Tuesday but about Romney hoping that the conservative vote gets split for as long as possible. The sooner this race boils down to just him and Perry he is in trouble.

[Stan]

If these should be the results, i think that Cain and Gingrich will withdraw after Iowa and New Hampshire primaries.

[California8429]

If these should be the results, i think that Cain and Gingrich will withdraw after Iowa and New Hampshire primaries.

I would hope after a half year in the spotlight, republicans won't still be so eager to support Perry

[big bad fab]

Perry will make a mistake before the end of the year.

I can't imagine Romney not winning this, even if this is by default and because the right of the right is splitted.

[NHI]

Romney will be the nominee for one reason: Perry is unelectable.

[Niemeyerite]

Romney will be the nominee for one reason: Perry is unelectable.

Murkowski, Lowden and Castle were nominated for one reason: Miller, Angle and O'Donnell were unelectable.

[NCeriale]

Romney will be the nominee for one reason: Perry is unelectable.

Murkowski, Lowden and Castle were nominated for one reason: Miller, Angle and O'Donnell were unelectable.

Hehehe
Also Jane Norton

[Bull Moose Base]

Romney will be the nominee for one reason: Perry is unelectable.

Murkowski, Lowden and Castle were nominated for one reason: Miller, Angle and O'Donnell were unelectable.

Besides that, polls are showing Perry about as competitive as Romney.  Rasmussen has even shown Perry stronger.  Without the electability argument, Romney's in trouble.  It's created a confusing paradox where he's now attacking Perry as both too far to the right as Romney himself scrambles to his right, accusing Perry of being too far to the left.  I think his campaign has been playing a weak hand pretty well actually.  Still, his electability argument is looking increasingly shaky and with it, his nomination hopes.

[Likely Voter]

Romney will be the nominee for one reason: Perry is unelectable.

Murkowski, Lowden and Castle were nominated for one reason: Miller, Angle and O'Donnell were unelectable.

Besides that, polls are showing Perry about as competitive as Romney.  Rasmussen has even shown Perry stronger.  Without the electability argument, Romney's in trouble.  It's created a confusing paradox where he's now attacking Perry as both too far to the right as Romney himself scrambles to his right, accusing Perry of being too far to the left.  I think his campaign has been playing a weak hand pretty well actually.  Still, his electability argument is looking increasingly shaky and with it, his nomination hopes.

I was thinking just this when I saw Romney's latest line of attack that Perry is soft on immigration. Romney is becoming a parodox with his "I am more electible and Rick Perry doesn't hate Mexicans enough"