IA/WI-PPP: Obama leads all Republicans in both states

[Tender Branson]

Iowa:

Do you approve or disapprove of President Barack Obama’s job performance?

Approve .......................................................... 45%
Disapprove...................................................... 48%

Barack Obama................................................ 49%
Mitt Romney.................................................... 39%

Barack Obama................................................ 51%
Rick Perry ....................................................... 38%

Barack Obama................................................ 51%
Michele Bachmann ......................................... 34%

Barack Obama................................................ 51%
Herman Cain................................................... 33%

Barack Obama................................................ 54%
Sarah Palin ..................................................... 33%

Wisconsin:

Do you approve or disapprove of President Barack Obama’s job performance?

Approve .......................................................... 45%
Disapprove...................................................... 51%

Barack Obama................................................ 47%
Mitt Romney.................................................... 42%

Barack Obama................................................ 50%
Rick Perry ....................................................... 40%

Barack Obama................................................ 51%
Michele Bachmann ......................................... 39%

Barack Obama................................................ 52%
Sarah Palin ..................................................... 40%

Barack Obama................................................ 50%
Herman Cain................................................... 36%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_IAWI_0824.pdf

Obama vs. Romney

[King]

His state approval polls don't really seem to bad compared to the national ones.  Could it be that he's doing so poorly in GOP strongholds that it's skewing the divide?

I have a feeling this election is going to be more like 2004.  Obama isn't going to do great (40% or so) everywhere like he did in 2008.  NC being the only competitive state in the South.  CO and NM being the only states in the Plains/Rocky West being competitive. 

[krazen1211]

His state approval polls don't really seem to bad compared to the national ones.  Could it be that he's doing so poorly in GOP strongholds that it's skewing the divide?

And places like Pennsylvania, possibly. Approvals aren't going to fluctuate in the South nearly that much until he starts losing blacks.

[Landslide Lyndon]

His state approval polls don't really seem to bad compared to the national ones.  Could it be that he's doing so poorly in GOP strongholds that it's skewing the divide?

I have a feeling this election is going to be more like 2004.  Obama isn't going to do great (40% or so) everywhere like he did in 2008.  NC being the only competitive state in the South.  CO and NM being the only states in the Plains/Rocky West being competitive. 

Tom Jensen notes that Iowans have actually seen and heard the Republicans hopefuls, and that's the reason why Obama enjoys double digit leads against them.

["'Oeps!' De blunders van Rick Perry Indicted"]

His state approval polls don't really seem to bad compared to the national ones.

RCP has his national average at 43. Given how IA and WI voted last time, these numbers are about what you'd expect.

[Devils30]

Perry has zero midwestern appeal, he honestly needs to win Pennsylvania or New Hampshire to have a chance against Obama. Not sure a hardcore right wing southern governor is the best guy for that task.

[pbrower2a]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_IAWI_0824.pdf

Junk polls excluded for FL, MI, and PA. Paradoxically the Muhlenberg poll makes the President look more likely to win Pennsylvania.

This is how things look at the likely nadir of approval ratings for President Obama.    

Obama vs. Romney

Obama vs. Bachmann

Obama vs. Palin

Obama vs. Perry

[Thomas D]

Obama vs. Perry

LOL

[pbrower2a]

Perry has zero midwestern appeal, he honestly needs to win Pennsylvania or New Hampshire to have a chance against Obama. Not sure a hardcore right wing southern governor is the best guy for that task.

Political culture may not overwhelm everything; it determines what issues and styles can win in certain states. The unambiguous Tea Party types seem to lose big, and Mitt Romney seems to have a chance but still has his work cut out for him.   

[Eraserhead]

His state approval polls don't really seem to bad compared to the national ones.  Could it be that he's doing so poorly in GOP strongholds that it's skewing the divide?

And places like Pennsylvania, possibly. Approvals aren't going to fluctuate in the South nearly that much until he starts losing blacks.

And that will never happen.

[NVGonzalez]

His state approval polls don't really seem to bad compared to the national ones.  Could it be that he's doing so poorly in GOP strongholds that it's skewing the divide?

And places like Pennsylvania, possibly. Approvals aren't going to fluctuate in the South nearly that much until he starts losing blacks.

And that will never happen.

[pbrower2a]

Obama vs. Perry

LOL

The result for Texas is likely obsolete. But that said, we shall see polls for Kentucky (a Clinton-but-not-Obama state) and South Carolina from PPP next week.

[King]

Perry will win Texas, but a Ron Paul 3rd party candidacy would make it super fun time.

[Lief 🗽]

I'd expect the Republicans to be doing much better in Iowa, since they've basically been campaigning there for the last few months about how terrible Obama without opposition.

[Landslide Lyndon]

I'd expect the Republicans to be doing much better in Iowa, since they've basically been campaigning there for the last few months

But that's exactly the reason why they do so terrible.

[CARLHAYDEN]

This is an interesting case of the dichotomy of the PPP surveys.

The Wisconsin survey seems to be reasonably distributed in terms of respondents by partisan identification (37% Democrats, 34% Republicans and 29% Others/Independents) whereas the Iowa survey appears to be loaded in favor of Democrats (35% Democrat, 32% Republican and 33% Others/Independents).

When looking at Iowa, whether examining Registration, or exit polls (2008 and 2010), it would appear the Democrats constitute approximately 33% of likely 2012 voters, whereas Republicans constitute approximately 34% of likely 2012 voters.

[Tender Branson]

This is an interesting case of the dichotomy of the PPP surveys.

The Wisconsin survey seems to be reasonably distributed in terms of respondents by partisan identification (37% Democrats, 34% Republicans and 29% Others/Independents) whereas the Iowa survey appears to be loaded in favor of Democrats (35% Democrat, 32% Republican and 33% Others/Independents).

When looking at Iowa, whether examining Registration, or exit polls (2008 and 2010), it would appear the Democrats constitute approximately 33% of likely 2012 voters, whereas Republicans constitute approximately 34% of likely 2012 voters.

The current party registration in Iowa is 33% DEM, 30% GOP and 37% IND.

[pbrower2a]

Perry will win Texas, but a Ron Paul 3rd party candidacy would make it super fun time.

I agree with you on that. The Favorite Son effect is huge if the candidate from that state is well respected there (that would not help Rick Santorum in PA, by the way). Perry wasn't campaigning for President when the poll was taken for Texas.

I see Perry as the sort of nominee who could do well in the core South but nowhere else -- a right-winger and a cultural vulgarian (Trent Lott, Saxby Chambliss, James DeMint, and the late  Jesse Helms) -- who reminds people outside that region why they dislike Southern politics. George Wallace had that problem even if he was quite liberal on economics.

PPP will be polling Kentucky and South Carolina... and we just might see how a Northern right-winger and cultural vulgarian does in the South. OK, Kentucky is on the southern Fringe, but South Carolina wasn't.

[Brittain33]

His state approval polls don't really seem to bad compared to the national ones.  Could it be that he's doing so poorly in GOP strongholds that it's skewing the divide?

I have a feeling this election is going to be more like 2004.  Obama isn't going to do great (40% or so) everywhere like he did in 2008.  NC being the only competitive state in the South.  CO and NM being the only states in the Plains/Rocky West being competitive. 

Tom Jensen notes that Iowans have actually seen and heard the Republicans hopefuls, and that's the reason why Obama enjoys double digit leads against them.

Excellent point.

Sharron Angle led Reid consistently before people got an up-close look at her, too. The Republican primary electorate remains Obama's best hope for reelection.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

PPP will be polling Kentucky and South Carolina... and we just might see how a Northern right-winger and cultural vulgarian does in the South. OK, Kentucky is on the southern Fringe, but South Carolina wasn't.

I've lived in Kentucky for 38 years. And we don't like Perry.

[Tender Branson]

PPP will be polling Kentucky and South Carolina... and we just might see how a Northern right-winger and cultural vulgarian does in the South. OK, Kentucky is on the southern Fringe, but South Carolina wasn't.

I've lived in Kentucky for 38 years. And we don't like Perry.

The poll will likely show something very different.

I expect Perry to be close to 40% in the primary poll (without Palin included) and about 15% ahead of everyone else.

I also expect that Perry is about 10% ahead of Obama at this point.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

The poll will likely show something very different.

I expect Perry to be close to 40% in the primary poll (without Palin included) and about 15% ahead of everyone else.

I also expect that Perry is about 10% ahead of Obama at this point.

I go by what I see on the ground.

And we love Obama in these parts.

[Franzl]

Pretty dumb way to judge the state of the race.

[Tender Branson]

The poll will likely show something very different.

I expect Perry to be close to 40% in the primary poll (without Palin included) and about 15% ahead of everyone else.

I also expect that Perry is about 10% ahead of Obama at this point.

I go by what I see on the ground.

And we love Obama in these parts.

The part where you live in voted with 60% for McCain. It does not love Obama.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

The part where you live in voted with 60% for McCain. It does not love Obama.

The people in my county who buy my books and read my newsletters and blogs didn't get the memo that says we're required to vote GOP based on The Media's say-so.

Trust me. We love Obama.