IA-PPP: Perry has a small lead, Paul with strong numbers

[Tender Branson]

Without Palin:

Rick Perry ....................................................... 22%
Mitt Romney.................................................... 19%
Michele Bachmann ......................................... 18%
Ron Paul......................................................... 16%
Herman Cain................................................... 7%
Newt Gingrich ................................................. 5%
Rick Santorum ................................................ 5%
Jon Huntsman................................................. 3%
Someone else/Not sure .................................. 5%

With Palin:

Rick Perry ....................................................... 21%
Mitt Romney.................................................... 18%
Michele Bachmann ......................................... 15%
Ron Paul......................................................... 12%
Sarah Palin ..................................................... 10%
Newt Gingrich ................................................. 7%
Herman Cain................................................... 6%
Rick Santorum ................................................ 5%
Jon Huntsman................................................. 3%
Someone else/Not sure .................................. 4%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_IA_0823424.pdf

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

every time someone mentions the name of Ron Paul, I go

[tpfkaw]

Palin takes more from Paul than Bachmann?

Weird.

[Tender Branson]

Palin takes more from Paul than Bachmann?

Weird.

The more interesting part is that Gingrich gains 2 points when Palin is included ...

[Tender Branson]

Also:

Rick Santorum now has the 3rd best net favorables in the race, yet he still doesn't go anywhere.

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

Palin takes more from Paul than Bachmann?

Weird.

The more interesting part is that Gingrich gains 2 points when Palin is included ...

Random button mashers?

[Mehmentum]

Looking at these numbers, I'd say that any of Perry, Romney, Bachmann, and Paul could win Iowa and that it will be close.  This will definitely be something to watch. 

Still, if Paul actually wins, I will laugh.

[Guderian]

Palin takes more from Paul than Bachmann?

Weird.

Paul and Palin supporters are mostly paranoid cultists who distrust all other candidates, so there has to be some overlapping between the groups.

[argentarius]

I'm quite surprised at Palin taking votes from Paul, the establishment will be begging her to jump in now if they think she can take any chance of victory away from him.

[tmthforu94]

People need to stop ignoring the possibility of Romney winning Iowa. If Romney wins both Iowa and New Hampshire, I can't see him losing the nomination.

[Eraserhead]

every time someone mentions the name of Ron Paul, I go

Oh, do you work for the media?

Anyway, Romney's numbers are pretty strong too. If he beats expectations and wins here, it should be over.

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

Anyway, Romney's numbers are pretty strong too. If he beats expectations and wins here, it should be over.

NGTH

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

Is the ongoing Bachmann implosion surprising anyone? This was bound to happen, I expect her to fizzle out further over the coming months. A nearly exclusive Perry vs Romney showdown seems very likely at this point.

These numbers must make the Romney team curl up into a ball:
Rick Perry 48%
Mitt Romney 30%
Not Sure 22%

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

If Romney finishes second here, it would be basically like him winning.

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

If I were Romney, my pantaloons would be sagging with poop at this point. Perry will turn into a juggernaught as long as Bachmann continues to implode, which is very likely. Romney does have the advantage of a great primary calendar that gives him easy wins but other than that I see little hope for him.

Or maybe someone will laugh at my predictions by this time next year. We'll see.

[Bull Moose Base]

People need to stop ignoring the possibility of Romney winning Iowa. If Romney wins both Iowa and New Hampshire, I can't see him losing the nomination.

Joementum predicted Romney wins Iowa and New Hampshire then loses the nomination and I got the hot hand!  I'll give myself honorable mention if it's Romney winning those two but instead of a 1st round KO, winning a long slog in June.

Romney is in some ways like a 2012 Republican version of John Kerry who swept IA and NH and right now, Iowa looks like a bit like Democrats 2004 Iowa- totally up-for-grabs.  Could maybe stay that way until the last couple days before the caucus.

[Likely Voter]

Romney is damned if he does and damned if he doesnt on IA. If he ignores it Perry could come out strong and be unstoppable after a 2nd place in NH and win in SC. But if he contests IA and loses he will be even more weakened. But I still think it is worth the risk. He could end Perry by winning IA. And he could probably rustle up 25-30% (the so called establishment/moderates) and that would be enough to win with Perry and Bachmann, etc. splitting the tea party & evangelicals, and Paul scooping up the libertarians (with each getting 18-25%)

[Keystone Phil]

Also:

Rick Santorum now has the 3rd best net favorables in the race, yet he still doesn't go anywhere.

Slow and steady...

[Landslide Lyndon]

How the hell is Romney going to win Iowa when he has already decided to skip it?

[Mr. Morden]

How the hell is Romney going to win Iowa when he has already decided to skip it?

He hasn't decided to skip it.  He's decided to not do very much there for the time being, and keep his options open.

[Likely Voter]

How the hell is Romney going to win Iowa when he has already decided to skip it?

i was saying if he campaigns he has a chance to win, but he would have to go for it. But that runs the risk of trying and losing which is a lot worse than not trying and losing.

[Lief 🗽]

Meh, Bachmann has hardly collapsed in these numbers, especially without Palin. She's basically tied with Perry and Romney, and Perry is no doubt enjoying an announcement bounce of sorts. She's still definitely in this.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

I expected Perry to be doing far better then this, really.

Romney didn't loose anything to Perry, maybe 2 points which is insignificant.

Bachmann also has not plunged down like some predicted which may be the answer to the first point. Either her support is more stable then we thought or he just isn't that appealing to Tea Partiers. Perry is a more establishment tea party candidate. Considering he has gerrymandered Texas twice, it's hard to see how he can be considered anything but an establishment guy. 

And of course Ron Paul doesn't seem to be going anywhere. And both he and Bachmann have every incentive to go aggressive in IA, because if they don't win there, they probably are both done. 

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Why, that's the strongest 12% I've ever seen!

PAUL FEVER

catch it

[King]

Meh, Bachmann has hardly collapsed in these numbers, especially without Palin. She's basically tied with Perry and Romney, and Perry is no doubt enjoying an announcement bounce of sorts. She's still definitely in this.

Bachmann has collapsed regardless if she wins Iowa because Perry's entrance means she won't win the South.  Her appeal is now only in the upper Midwest and there's just not enough delegates there to win a nomination.