MilesC'S 2012 Congressional Predictions

[Miles]

I was going to post this soon anyway, but I'll post it now since tmthforu also gave us his ratings.

30%- Slight
40%- Lean
60%- Likely
90%- Safe
Lime- Pure Tossup

Open Seats:

AZ- Given the state's lean, I'll give Flake a leg up and I'm expecting him to win. Still, assuming Giffords doesn't run, Goddard also posts some promising numbers.

CT- Shays could make this somewhat of a race, but he'll probably have a bloody primary with McMahon.

HI- Lingle couldn't even crack 40% in the last PPP poll there. Her favorables have gone down considerably and he'd be running in a super-blue state in a Presidential year. Good luck! I'm pulling for Hirono in the primary. Not quite Safe yet, but still very, very likely D.

NM- Interesting primaries on both sides. The Democrats still have an advantage. This wouldn't be a Senate-flipping seat for Republicans, it would be the icing on the cake for them if they have a good night.

ND- Kent Conrad is the Evan Bayh of 2012. This would be a better pickup for the GOP than NE.

TX- I expect the GOP's 16-year statewide streak to continue.

VA- This is like WA 2010; everyone knows the candidates and already has opinions of both. This will come down to how well the individual campaigns are run.

WI- Without Feingold, I'm giving the GOP an advantage by a hair. Kind would be the best Democrat in my mind, he'd just need to boost his name recognition; I've always said that Baldwin is too liberal/polarizing to win statewide.


Incumbents

Democrats:

CA: Feinstein is a fixture in the Senate. She may post subpar approvals, but she stomps any actual Republican.

DE- Carper isn't going anywhere.

FL- Nelson's "vulnerability" is overrated. The only reason his approval is fairly poor (about 38/31 last I checked) is that Dems are pretty lukewarm on him. They'll end up voting for him anayway.

MD- See DE.

MI- Even if Hoekstra got the nomination, he's start our trailing by about 8.

MN- Incumbents with a 61/28 approval rating don't lose.

MO- While Clarie's numbers have remained fairly consistent, the GOP trend in MO is working against here. If the GOP nominates Steelman, this moves to Slight D; if its Aiken, it satys a tossup.

MT- This is the seat most likely to flip control of the Senate. Rehberg has always won his House seat with 60% or better, but he's never had a good opponent. Tester still has a very good approval 51/39. Still, a primary challenge from the DailyKos could seriously cripple him. The candidates will probably bw within a few points of each other up until election day.

NE- Eh, Nelson. It will be amazing if he pulls this out. Bruning is gaffe-prone though and Nelson still leads lesser-known opponents.

NJ- Menendez has never been particularly well, but Republicans would be better off using their resources elsewhere.

NY- Gillibrand is among the most popular Senators.

OH- Brown is doing well in the polls from now, but  that may be derived from a combination of anti-Kasich sentiment and low-profile opponents. I expect this race to become tighter as we approach election day.

PA- Like Sherrod Brown, Bob Casey could only sit back helplessly as his state moved sharply towards the GOP last year. However, the 2012 environment will not be as hostile towards Democrats and the Casey name is still golden.

RI- Though Whitehouse had surprisingly weak approvals (49/38), but this is RI.

VT- See MN. Incumbents with a 67/28 approval don't lose elections. 25% of Republicans even approve of Sanders.

WA- Patty Murray got over 52% in a horrible year for Democrats. With a better atmosphere, a weaker opponent, and better approvals, Cantwell is a solid favorite.

WV- With district basically unchanged, Capito should be content with running for her House seat again. She'd be the only Republican who would come within 10 points of Manchin.

Republicans:

IN: I'm expecting Lugar to pull through in the primary and he'll subsequently be a strong favorite. Even though Joe Donnelly is a top-tier recruit for Democrats, he'd still be the underdog even against Mourdock.

ME- Snowe is unstoppable. Even as an Independent, PPP has here getting over 50%.

MA- Brown is the favorite for now. I just chipped in a few $$ to the PCCC to draft Elizabeth Warren, so I do have a dog in this race.

MS- Even Democrats narrowly approve of Wicker.

NV- Though Heller has won in all of PPP's polls, he has a few key things working against him. First, his approvals have eroded since his move to the Senate. Second, Reid's powerful machine is now at work for Berkley. Third, Democrats have traditionally tended to underpoll in NV.

TN- Bredesen is the only Democrat who'd beat Corker. I'm npt expecting him to run. Still, a Corker primary challenge isn't out of the question.

UT- The outcome of this race will be heavily dependent on whether Matheson takes the plunge or not. If he runs, it moves to Tossup, otherwise, Likely/Safe R.

WY- Barrasso is about as safe as they get.

[tmthforu94]

This looks almost exactly like my map. Will be interesting to see this looking back. I'd really like for Wilson to win in New Mexico. She's my "Kelly Ayotte" of 2012, though I don't think she'll win as easily as Ayotte did.

If Thompson runs in Wisconsin, I think the GOP will be looking at 50 seats on Election Night, meaning they'll only have to win one of the remaining close states (Montana, Missouri, Ohio, Michigan, Virgina, Florida) to win. Not a sure thing, but I like our chances. All depends on what the environment is, as well as who the GOP nominates. If I were a 2012 GOP Congressional candidate, I'd be endorsing Romney right about now.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

[Miles]

My NC Congressional ratings:

(assuming the current lines stand in the courts)



Safe R:
NC-03
NC-09

Likely R:
NC-02
NC-05
NC-06
NC-10

Lean R:
NC-08
NC-13

Tossup:
NC-11

Slight D:
NC-07

Safe D:
NC-01
NC-04
NC-12

[Napoleon]

A bit favorable to Democrats in some way, yet favorable to Republicans in other ways. Hm. Just my opinion.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

A bit favorable to Democrats in some way, yet favorable to Republicans in other ways. Hm. Just my opinion.

The D parts are mostly to comply with the VRA.

[Miles]

A bit favorable to Democrats in some way, yet favorable to Republicans in other ways. Hm. Just my opinion.

The D parts are mostly to comply with the VRA.

Yep. The 1st, 4th and 12th districts will never, ever elect a Republican.
They're all over 70% Obama.

McIntyre is a slight favorite and Shuler is 50/50.

[Torie]

[quoteBob Casey could only sit back helplessly as his state moved sharply towards the GOP last year. However, the 2012 environment will not be as hostile towards Democrats[/quote]

Not sure about that. It may well be - even if Obama wins due to a very flawed opponent. I guess there is maybe a 35%-40% that it will be as bad. Nobody knows I would suggest.

[Miles]

[quoteBob Casey could only sit back helplessly as his state moved sharply towards the GOP last year. However, the 2012 environment will not be as hostile towards Democrats

Not sure about that. It may well be - even if Obama wins due to a very flawed opponent. I guess there is maybe a 35%-40% that it will be as bad. Nobody knows I would suggest.
[/quote]

Well, I'm not expecting the environment to be as hostile.

[Miles]

I'm also working on a cumulative map of all the House districts (kinda like the one I made for my TL, except with the actual districts). I'm drawing districts for the states that are already done with the process.

[Miles]

These are my first few Congressional endorsements; just to get these on the record.

They're only for non-incumbents (or incumbents that have seriously altered districts).


Senate:
HI-Mazie Hirono
NM- Hector Balderas
NV- Shelley Berkley
VA- Tim Kaine
MA- [Elizabeth Warren]

House:
TX-35: Lloyd Doggett
NC-04: Brad Miller
MI-14: Hansen Clarke
WV-01: Mike Oliverio
AZ-01: Ann Kirkpatrick
NV-??: Dina Titus
Fl-??- Alan Grayson
AR-02: [Bill Halter]
MN-08: [Daniel Fanning]

[not actually running yet]

[BigSkyBob]

[quoteBob Casey could only sit back helplessly as his state moved sharply towards the GOP last year. However, the 2012 environment will not be as hostile towards Democrats

Not sure about that. It may well be - even if Obama wins due to a very flawed opponent. I guess there is maybe a 35%-40% that it will be as bad. Nobody knows I would suggest.

Well, I'm not expecting the environment to be as hostile.
[/quote]

Zero jobs created.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

Might as well make my endorsements for Republican-held and open Senate seats:

Arizona: ?
Connecticut: Chris Murphy
Hawaii: Mazie Hirono
Indiana: Joe Donnelly (might stay out of this if Lugar wins his primary)
Maine: ?
Massachusetts: Elizabeth Warren
Mississippi: ?
Nevada: Shelley Berkley
New Mexico: Martin Heinrich
North Dakota: ?
Tennessee: Bart Gordon (if he runs)
Texas: John Sharp (if he runs)
Utah: Jim Matheston (if he runs)
Virginia: Tim Kaine
Wisconsin: Tammy Baldwin

[Miles]

I'm not endorsing in every race yet.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

Technically, I'm staying out of a few until we get a clearer field. But I might as well do most of them.

[Miles]

Well, there are some races where I won't endorse in, either because I'm not excited about the candidates or I'm still on the fence.

[bore]

[quoteBob Casey could only sit back helplessly as his state moved sharply towards the GOP last year. However, the 2012 environment will not be as hostile towards Democrats

Not sure about that. It may well be - even if Obama wins due to a very flawed opponent. I guess there is maybe a 35%-40% that it will be as bad. Nobody knows I would suggest.

Well, I'm not expecting the environment to be as hostile.

Zero jobs created.
[/quote]

Republican House of representatives.

[Miles]

An update after a few months:




Changes from original:

CA: Safe D -> Likely D
MI: Slight D -> Lean D
FL: Lean D -> Likely D
MA: Lean R -> Tossup
MO: Tossup -> Slight D
ME: Likely R -> Safe R
VA: Slight D -> Tossup
CT: Likely D -> Lean D

[redcommander]

An update after a few months:




Changes from original:

CA: Safe D -> Likely D
MI: Slight D -> Lean D
FL: Lean D -> Likely D
MA: Lean R -> Tossup
MO: Tossup -> Slight D
ME: Likely R -> Safe R
VA: Slight D -> Tossup
CT: Likely D -> Lean D

Have you received some inside information about a challenger to Feinstein?

[Miles]

haha, no. But until the Feinstein business blows over, I'm downgrading it to Likely D. Her reelects seem to be sinking to new lows, so CA is accordingly less safe for the Dems than it was back in August.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

51D-49R

[Miles]

Very possible, but I think Republicans have a better chance of picking up Kohl's seat that ousting McCaskill.

[Miles]

With exactly a year until Election 2012, I'll update my Senate ratings (I'm due for a November update anyway):



Changes:

MA: Tossup -> Slight D
 Elizabeth Warren's campaign is off to a great start and she has the momentum. As a fan of her's myself, I'm very enthused.
And no, this pic isn't an Obama volunteer meeting; its for Warren!

WI: Slight R -> Tossup
Baldwin emerged as the winner this month with strong fundraising and a rebound in the polls. This is another race where progressives will be spending $$. Me myself, I'm not particularly big on Baldwin; I always thought she was too left to represent the state as a whole, but she may prove me wrong. In any case, she will undoubtedly be the beneficiary of a close GOP primary between Thompson and Neumann.

FL: Likely D -> Lean D
Nelson is still favored, but Connie Mack's entrance makes this somewhat more of a contest. The GOP primary will be interesting; we'll see if LeMieux can get any of his previous Senate colleagues to go to bat for him against Mack and Hasner. 'Just remember...'LeMieux: Its French for Crist.'

UT: Likely R -> Safe R
'Looks like we won't be seeing a seemingly once-in-a-lifetime competitive Utah general election. Hatch was one of the biggest winners of this cycle; with Chaffetz gone, his right flank is safe, and now, with Matheson out of the picture, he'll be safe in the general.

CA: Likely D -> Safe D
With or without Feinstein, a Democrat will undoubtedly win here by double-digits.

CT: Lean D -> Likely D
I have a feeling that the GOP will nominate McMahon....

[Ogre Mage]

With exactly a year until Election 2012, I'll update my Senate ratings (I'm due for a November update anyway):



Changes:

MA: Tossup -> Slight D
 Elizabeth Warren's campaign is off to a great start and she has the momentum. As a fan of her's myself, I'm very enthused.
And no, this pic isn't an Obama volunteer meeting; its for Warren!

WI: Slight R -> Tossup
Baldwin emerged as the winner this month with strong fundraising and a rebound in the polls. This is another race where progressives will be spending $$. Me myself, I'm not particularly big on Baldwin; I always thought she was too left to represent the state as a whole, but she may prove me wrong. In any case, she will undoubtedly be the beneficiary of a close GOP primary between Thompson and Neumann.

FL: Likely D -> Lean D
Nelson is still favored, but Connie Mack's entrance makes this somewhat more of a contest. The GOP primary will be interesting; we'll see if LeMieux can get any of his previous Senate colleagues to go to bat for him against Mack and Hasner. 'Just remember...'LeMieux: Its French for Crist.'

UT: Likely R -> Safe R
'Looks like we won't be seeing a seemingly once-in-a-lifetime competitive Utah general election. Hatch was one of the biggest winners of this cycle; with Chaffetz gone, his right flank is safe, and now, with Matheson out of the picture, he'll be safe in the general.

CA: Likely D -> Safe D
With or without Feinstein, a Democrat will undoubtedly win here by double-digits.

CT: Lean D -> Likely D
I have a feeling that the GOP will nominate McMahon....

Yes, I would say this is about where the Senate map is right now.  Thoughts on the 4 tossup races:

Nevada:  After a big fundraising victory in the 3rd quarter and polls showing her pulling even, Berkley has really gone on the attack against Heller.  First on China currency and more recently, over Social Security payments and Heller's last-minute cancellation of a meeting with the Latino Chamber of Commerce, a two-pronged issue attack aimed at seniors and Latinos, two key constituencies in Nevada.  It was recently announced that Bill Clinton is coming to campaign for Berkley in January, a clear indication that National Democrats see this as a prime pickup possibility.  Berkley got tripped up in Sept. over the NYT story about her lobbying for the medical industry her husband is a part of, but now she seems to have regained some momentum.

Montana:  I think Tester is the 2nd most endangered incumbent Democratic Senator after Ben Nelson (but I frankly don't care much if Nelson wins or loses).  Unlike, say, Clarie McCaskill, he does not have a significant urban center to boost him.  Of the four tossup states listed here, NV, WI and VA are all states the Obama campaign will devote considerable resources to, but I rather doubt Montana will merit much attention.  The President is very unpopular here and Rehberg has a clear shot at Tester, whereas WI and MO will feature bloody GOP primaries.  

Wisconsin:  Recent polling suggests that Baldwin is starting to solidify the Democratic base behind her.  It's not clear if the ongoing antics at the state level of governance will have an impact on this race.  I realize some are skittish about running a strong liberal in a swing state, but the GOP isn't afraid to run strong conservatives in swing states and Baldwin has certainly proven she can win elections.  Nevertheless, since her progressive credentials are unquestioned, she would be wise to spend the majority of her time constructing a general-election persona.  If I were Team Baldwin I would be subtly trying to weaken Thompson as he attempts to navigate the GOP Primary.

Virginia:  I don't have much to say about this one, other than the fact it will likely be a nailbiter to the end.  But everybody knew that already.  It is arguably the tightest Senate race in the country.

[Miles]

^^^ Good analysis.