The Fab Four of Obamamania

[Reaganfan]

The biggest hurdle to the election of a Republican President in 2012 isn't the campaign money that Barack Obama will have or whether or not a Republican nominee is "too" conservative for the mainstream or not. It is the fab four states of Obamamania.

Let's assume for a second that next year's election ends up being very close. Let's also assume that the race is Barack Obama vs. Rick Perry. Let's give Perry the benefit of the doubt and make the electoral map a carbon copy of 2004.

Perry: 292
Obama: 246

PERRY ELECTED PRESIDENT


Not so fast. Four states have seemed to blossom into a full-blown love affair with Barack H. Obama: Virginia, New Mexico, Iowa and Colorado. Indeed, even Nevada is much more friendly to Obama than the majority of America. So let's switch those states to Obama.

Obama: 279
Perry: 259

FOUR MORE YEARS!


So let's break down the impressions of the state. What type of impression does one get from Virginia? Two different states.

Northern and Eastern Virginia caters to the Obama crowd. Virginia Tech, a college, clearly would have a strong region of support to re-elect the President. Cities in the northern portion of the state have also trended Democratic.



Southern and Western Virginia is much more rural, and old fashioned. This would surely be Perry country.



Colorado. When people think of Colorado, they get two impressions.

One is a state out west that is rural, lots of nature, and the opportunity to vote more traditionally conservative.




However, the other impression is one of the liberalism coming out of the cities. Aspen's ski lodges with their trendy college-age kids sipping hot chocolate, wearing their fuzzy gloves and spouting liberal ideals. Boulder, Denver and other areas are also exploding with liberalism, thus edging towards Barack Obama.

Indeed, it is often commonplace to see Hollywood celebrities right there in the cities.



"House parties" are often held, where Generation X-ers sit back drinking beer wishing they can relive the glory of the voguish, contemporary dissimulation of the Clinton/Gore era.



While one may say I am stereotyping, indeed the odds are that these type of folks would trend heavily towards the apparition of Barack Obama.

So let's say forget Colorado and Virginia...New Mexico is right next to Texas. Another problem state. The electorate has become so liberal and so heavily Hispanic, I can see Rick Perry carrying Pennsylvania before he carries New Mexico. Indeed, this state may soon follow many in New England and become a reliable Democratic state.

So let's move to Iowa. Anyone who has been to Iowa knows that it is a beautiful rural state, but clearly those who feel strongly in liberal beliefs tend to swing the state towards Democrats. Indeed, it has gone Democratic in 4 of the last 5 elections, and odds are that even someone like Rick Perry's rural, evangelical turnout can not offset Barack Obama's organization which stems back to 2007.

So in the end, these four states may seal the deal for Obama. Even if Florida and Ohio and Missouri and Indiana and North Carolina trend Republican. This must be addressed and be prepared for by the GOP nominee. Don't do what Kerry supporters did with Ohio in 2004 and assume that states will break for the nominee just because of economic issues, especially if underlying trends say otherwise.

[Keystone Phil]

This is art.

This might be my favorite part...

"House parties" are often held, where Generation X-ers sit back drinking beer wishing they can relive the glory of the voguish, contemporary dissimulation of the Clinton/Gore era.

[Torie]

Naso, you need to change the color of Nevada since you ceded that state to "the apparition." 

[Reaganfan]

Naso, you need to change the color of Nevada since you ceded that state to "the apparition." 

I have not ceded Nevada.

[Tender Branson]

Naso, you need to change the color of Nevada since you ceded that state to "the apparition." 

I have not ceded Nevada.

If Rick Perry's the candidate, you can cede it. Only Romney makes this state close.

[Keystone Phil]

Naso, you need to change the color of Nevada since you ceded that state to "the apparition." 

I have not ceded Nevada.

If Rick Perry's the candidate, you can cede it. Only Romney makes this state close.

Only Romney makes the state close? Uh, thanks for playing.

[Meeker]

I have no words.

[Paul Kemp]

Simply excellent.

[Keystone Phil]

Naso, you need to change the color of Nevada since you ceded that state to "the apparition." 

I have not ceded Nevada.

If Rick Perry's the candidate, you can cede it. Only Romney makes this state close.

Only Romney makes the state close? Uh, thanks for playing.

Oh. Wait. Sorry for my serious response. I should have known that Tender was posting a joke comment given the nature of the thread!

[Tender Branson]

Naso, you need to change the color of Nevada since you ceded that state to "the apparition." 

I have not ceded Nevada.

If Rick Perry's the candidate, you can cede it. Only Romney makes this state close.

Only Romney makes the state close? Uh, thanks for playing.

Maybe Huntsman too, but not one of the "Crazies" (incl. the guy in your signature).

Besides the dislike of Nevadans to elect "crazy" right-wing Republicans, there's also the ever-growing minority population in Nevada and the massive import of Californians who register as Democrats before the election (something that pbrower has once pointed out, don't know if this was true in 2008, but understandable, because NV is a small state and nearby California).

[Torie]

Naso, you need to change the color of Nevada since you ceded that state to "the apparition." 

I have not ceded Nevada.

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Well then Naso you might want to revise and extend your bolded text, since if Nevada is "more friendly" to Obama than the "majority of America," and Obama is winning the election, than just how does he lose Nevada again?  Or is Obama going to get all those electoral votes while losing the popular vote?

[opebo]

Ooh, I think I'm in that picture.  Haha, just kidding.  Though I did spend the entirety of the 1990s in those parties, or in a (non-chain) coffeehouse, I never wore blue-jean dungarees.

[Keystone Phil]

Naso, you need to change the color of Nevada since you ceded that state to "the apparition." 

I have not ceded Nevada.

If Rick Perry's the candidate, you can cede it. Only Romney makes this state close.

Only Romney makes the state close? Uh, thanks for playing.

Maybe Huntsman too, but not one of the "Crazies" (incl. the guy in your signature).

Besides the dislike of Nevadans to elect "crazy" right-wing Republicans, there's also the ever-growing minority population in Nevada and the massive import of Californians who register as Democrats before the election (something that pbrower has once pointed out, don't know if this was true in 2008, but understandable, because NV is a small state and nearby California).

Did you just cite something pbrower said and then go on to say that you didn't bother to verify it? Wow.

[Link]

The Fab Four of Obamamania

You're really into this Obamamania today.  Did Rush Limbaugh or Hannity do a program about it or something?

[Torie]

Speaking of Nevada, shortly before the 2008 election, the registration numbers of Pubbies and Dems were about even. That is not the case now. The state has slipped into Dem PVI territory. The real cusp states in my opinion are Virginia, New Hampshire, and Wisconsin, and to a lesser extent at the moment, Iowa (just a tad Dem), with North Carolina close behind (GOP, but not by much at all, when there is a big black turnout).

[Tender Branson]

Naso, you need to change the color of Nevada since you ceded that state to "the apparition." 

I have not ceded Nevada.

If Rick Perry's the candidate, you can cede it. Only Romney makes this state close.

Only Romney makes the state close? Uh, thanks for playing.

Maybe Huntsman too, but not one of the "Crazies" (incl. the guy in your signature).

Besides the dislike of Nevadans to elect "crazy" right-wing Republicans, there's also the ever-growing minority population in Nevada and the massive import of Californians who register as Democrats before the election (something that pbrower has once pointed out, don't know if this was true in 2008, but understandable, because NV is a small state and nearby California).

Did you just cite something pbrower said and then go on to say that you didn't bother to verify it? Wow.

Well, I´ve read about it during the 2008 election.

But I´m not sure how many people actually moved from CA to NV or CO just to help Obama win. I know that the Obama campaign bused tons of volunteers into the state to get out the vote and help people register to vote. Here´s an article about it (in which one guy even claimed to move from CA to CO just to vote for Obama there, so there were probably others who did so as well):

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/news/ap/politics/2008/Oct/31/californians_campaigning_in_nevada__colorado.html

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[Tender Branson]

Thinking about it:

Is it possible to register to vote in California and then 2 months before the vote move to Nevada and also register there and on election day first vote in Nevada and then drive back home to California and also vote there ?

[Foucaulf]

So are Nevada, Ohio, Florida and North Carolina the Rolling Stones for the GOP? If no one answers, I'll conduct my own investigation.

[Kevin]

Naso, you need to change the color of Nevada since you ceded that state to "the apparition." 

I have not ceded Nevada.

If Rick Perry's the candidate, you can cede it. Only Romney makes this state close.

Only Romney makes the state close? Uh, thanks for playing.

Maybe Huntsman too, but not one of the "Crazies" (incl. the guy in your signature).

Besides the dislike of Nevadans to elect "crazy" right-wing Republicans, there's also the ever-growing minority population in Nevada and the massive import of Californians who register as Democrats before the election (something that pbrower has once pointed out, don't know if this was true in 2008, but understandable, because NV is a small state and nearby California).

Did you just cite something pbrower said and then go on to say that you didn't bother to verify it? Wow.

Well, I´ve read about it during the 2008 election.

But I´m not sure how many people actually moved from CA to NV or CO just to help Obama win. I know that the Obama campaign bused tons of volunteers into the state to get out the vote and help people register to vote. Here´s an article about it (in which one guy even claimed to move from CA to CO just to vote for Obama there, so there were probably others who did so as well):

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/news/ap/politics/2008/Oct/31/californians_campaigning_in_nevada__colorado.html

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Yeah but the number of people going through all of that to vote for Obama in 2008 was pretty small, probably not even a enough to make that much of a difference.

And for 2012, the number of that category has probably shrunk considerably.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Thinking about it:

Is it possible to register to vote in California and then 2 months before the vote move to Nevada and also register there and on election day first vote in Nevada and then drive back home to California and also vote there ?

How many people can afford dual residences in California and Nevada?

[Kevin]

To add to what other people have said so far, I think the 2012 map looks something like this. Those in regular or dark red are solid Obama, while those in light red are comfortable Obama, and those in pink have a slight lean towards the President.

Those in dark or regular blue are the exact opposite in the sense that their solid Republican. While those in light blue are comfortable or weak Republican. And those in light blue have a slight lean towards the Republican candidate.

The states in green are tossups, even though Obama maybe leading in many of them at the moment, they will revert to their true battleground nature closer to the election. However, for me it was difficult to pick which one's I should color green and vice versa. As I thought I should have colored CO green vs. MI pink etc.

[Tender Branson]

Thinking about it:

Is it possible to register to vote in California and then 2 months before the vote move to Nevada and also register there and on election day first vote in Nevada and then drive back home to California and also vote there ?

How many people can afford dual residences in California and Nevada?

I´m not interested in how much it costs, I'm interested if it's theoretically possible.

Because the US has no system of household registration, it should be possible ?

Who knows more about it ?

[CJK]

I don't think Virginia is that big of a problem. If the Republican wins the popular vote, they will win Virginia. The western states are more troublesome because of hispanics and socially liberal whites.   

I think that a minimum Republican performance (in victory) would be Bush 2004 minus Nevada, Colorado, and New Mexico which would give 272 electoral votes.

[Iosif]

What the hell is this?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Hahahaha. Champion.