OH-PPP: Obama @ 44% approval, leads Republicans by at least 2%

[Tender Branson]

Do you approve or disapprove of President Barack Obama’s job performance?

Approve .......................................................... 44%
Disapprove...................................................... 52%

...

Barack Obama................................................ 45%
Mitt Romney.................................................... 43%

Barack Obama................................................ 45%
Rick Perry ....................................................... 41%

Barack Obama................................................ 48%
Michele Bachmann ......................................... 41%

Barack Obama................................................ 47%
Herman Cain................................................... 39%

Barack Obama................................................ 51%
Sarah Palin ..................................................... 38%

PPP surveyed 792 Ohio voters from August 11th to 14th. The margin of error for the survey is +/- 3.5%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews.

PPP is a Democratic polling company, but polling expert Nate Silver of the New York Times found that its surveys in 2010 actually exhibited a slight bias toward Republican candidates.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_OH_0816424.pdf

[Reaganfan]

Not bad at all. Note that with the exception of Palin, he can't get to 50% and even someone still gaining name recognition like Perry is within striking distance.

[King]

Obama Approval -8

Favorable:
Perry -9
Cain -13
Romney -19
Bachmann -19
Palin -25

Obama is still the least hated of the bunch, although Perry is close.  He is also the most unknown at the moment so I expect that to fall as well.

[Umengus]

party id sample: D +10

LOL

[Oakvale]

party id sample: D +10

LOL

Do you dismiss every poll you don't like? I'm seeing a pattern.

Garbage poll again...

Sample party id: D +8

gallup party id amongst CO adult population: R +1

sample is D + 13...

Gallup party id amongst NC adult population is D + 4

Garbage poll...

fake poll. Outlier.

[King]

party id sample: D +10

LOL

There are and there are always will be more registered Democrats than Republicans in polls of most states as the Republican Party is more ideologically purist and does not feature as many moderates as the Democrats.  It is more important with polls to look at how they identify ideologically:

41% Conservative
31% Moderate
27% Liberal

This is a correct sample.  If you stupidly adjusted it on party ID, that would turn it into a majority conservative sample.  A place that elects Sherrod Brown as its Senator is not a majority conservative state.

[You kip if you want to...]

The GOP will be in the political wilderness for a long time to come if none of their candidates can lead the incumbent with 44% approvals.

[pbrower2a]

Not bad at all. Note that with the exception of Palin, he can't get to 50% and even someone still gaining name recognition like Perry is within striking distance.

How can you be sure that the more that people know about Perry that they will like him more?

[Chaddyr23]

This seems spot on! From all what I've heard or read from across the country is everyone's just angry at politicians cause of the job market, they feel the president isn't doing anything but they  are turned off by the Republicans even more so.

[Niemeyerite]

party id sample: D +10

LOL

This is the guy who said Aubry had muslim connections. PPP may have muslim connections, too

[TJ in Oregon]

There are and there are always will be more registered Democrats than Republicans in polls of most states as the Republican Party is more ideologically purist and does not feature as many moderates as the Democrats.  It is more important with polls to look at how they identify ideologically:

41% Conservative
31% Moderate
27% Liberal

This is a correct sample.  If you stupidly adjusted it on party ID, that would turn it into a majority conservative sample.  A place that elects Sherrod Brown as its Senator is not a majority conservative state.

It seems a little high on the number of liberals and a little low on the number of moderates. If I remember correctly, the Gallup ID poll had Ohio at 19% liberal and only a handful of states at 27% liberal or higher. It's hard to say whether this changes the results a whole lot and at this point Ohio should be in the toss-up/lean Obama category along with a slew of other battleground states, but the difference in ideology is worth keeping in mind.

[King]

There are and there are always will be more registered Democrats than Republicans in polls of most states as the Republican Party is more ideologically purist and does not feature as many moderates as the Democrats.  It is more important with polls to look at how they identify ideologically:

41% Conservative
31% Moderate
27% Liberal

This is a correct sample.  If you stupidly adjusted it on party ID, that would turn it into a majority conservative sample.  A place that elects Sherrod Brown as its Senator is not a majority conservative state.

It seems a little high on the number of liberals and a little low on the number of moderates. If I remember correctly, the Gallup ID poll had Ohio at 19% liberal and only a handful of states at 27% liberal or higher. It's hard to say whether this changes the results a whole lot and at this point Ohio should be in the toss-up/lean Obama category along with a slew of other battleground states, but the difference in ideology is worth keeping in mind.

I don't believe Gallup has ever been known to have good state polling, but maybe data says otherwise.  They're a top rate national pollster I know.

[TJ in Oregon]

I think the national breakdown is usually closer to 40-40-20 conservative-moderate-liberal and I don't expect Ohio to be wildly different from this, certainly not enough that moderate and liberal are within four points.

[King]

I think the national breakdown is usually closer to 40-40-20 conservative-moderate-liberal and I don't expect Ohio to be wildly different from this, certainly not enough that moderate and liberal are within four points.

Nationally, CNN exit polls in 2008 had it it at 44% moderate, 34% conservative, 22% liberal and in 2004, 45% moderate, 34% conservative, 21% liberal.

This poll might be slightly too liberal for Ohio, but it's probably also slightly too conservative as well.  It could also be that moderates are apathetic being so far from the election and not responding to polls at the moment as much as liberals and conservatives.

[King]

CNN Ohio had the following:

2008
45% Moderate
35% Conservative
20% Liberal

Less liberals, but also less conservatives. If you were to reweigh Bachmann-Obama from the crosstabs with those numbers, you would get approximately the following:

Obama 49.7%
Bachmann 38.2%

Obama actually does 2 points better than the original this way.  So I guess PPP is a conservative pollster.  Who knew?

[Gustaf]

CNN Ohio had the following:

2008
45% Moderate
35% Conservative
20% Liberal

Less liberals, but also less conservatives. If you were to reweigh Bachmann-Obama from the crosstabs with those numbers, you would get approximately the following:

Obama 49.7%
Bachmann 38.2%

Obama actually does 2 points better than the original this way.  So I guess PPP is a conservative pollster.  Who knew?

The electorate is likely going to be less Dem-friendly than it was in 2008 though.

I don't get Obama doing so relatively well in Ohio. It doesn't make sense to me.

[TJ in Oregon]

The electorate is likely going to be less Dem-friendly than it was in 2008 though.

I don't get Obama doing so relatively well in Ohio. It doesn't make sense to me.

John Kasich. Otherwise Obama would be in the dumpster here too and he may very well wind up there eventually depending on how the economy is and what ends up happing with Ohio Senate Bill 5, the public employee union reform. By that I don't just mean how badly it fails, but what the public outcry is like.

[Torie]

The electorate is likely going to be less Dem-friendly than it was in 2008 though.

I don't get Obama doing so relatively well in Ohio. It doesn't make sense to me.

John Kasich. Otherwise Obama would be in the dumpster here too and he may very well wind up there eventually depending on how the economy is and what ends up happing with Ohio Senate Bill 5, the public employee union reform. By that I don't just mean how badly it fails, but what the public outcry is like.

Just why is Kasich so unpopular?

[TheGlobalizer]

The electorate is likely going to be less Dem-friendly than it was in 2008 though.

I don't get Obama doing so relatively well in Ohio. It doesn't make sense to me.

John Kasich. Otherwise Obama would be in the dumpster here too and he may very well wind up there eventually depending on how the economy is and what ends up happing with Ohio Senate Bill 5, the public employee union reform. By that I don't just mean how badly it fails, but what the public outcry is like.

Just why is Kasich so unpopular?

Ohio Senate Bill 5, the public employee union reform

[TJ in Oregon]

Yes. It hasn't received the national attention that Scott Walker's in Wisconsin has because the Republicans had enough votes in the state senate for quorum so the Democrats couldn't flee the state, and because Ohio's state capital is not in a far-left town where it is considered acceptable to skip for a protest. But it's still going on, still very unpopular, and still on the ballot in a referendum this November.

[Torie]

Odd. I don't understand why folks want to overpay public employees, but I guess that is their right. One would think they would rather pay market, and get more services (or less taxes), but I guess not.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Walker and Kasich have both framed the debate in the worst possible way (both are probably seen by almost everyone who disapproves of them as evil teacher-haters.) while at the same time deluding themselves into believing that they have the majority support on this issue (for evidence of this mind set read krazen's posting history.) It's as if some people hate public sector workers so much they can't comprehend how anyone else who isn't one could have an opinion toward them other than extreme burning hatred (liberals granted often end up thinking the same way, but I'd say that common liberal targets like for example oil industry executives really ARE unpopular. At least more unpopular than teachers.)

[TJ in Oregon]

Odd. I don't understand why folks want to overpay public employees, but I guess that is their right. One would think they would rather pay market, and get more services (or less taxes), but I guess not.

Welcome to Ohio

Plus, the bill would put contractual disputes up to a local referendum, which I suspect would lead to making a lot of nasty disputes even nastier. It bans binding arbitration. I'm uncertain of how I'll vote, which ought to tell you that the Democrats are a lock to win it.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

IIRC it only passed the Ohio Senate by one vote, despite the GOP having an over 2/3 majority.

[TheGlobalizer]

Odd. I don't understand why folks want to overpay public employees, but I guess that is their right. One would think they would rather pay market, and get more services (or less taxes), but I guess not.

When you have a culture of unionization, everything that reduces union influence is treated as worker-hatred.

It's like being a libertarian in the DC suburbs.  They're like, "What, you want to screw us all out of jobs?"