Irish Elections - Referendum, Presidential, and General (polling or byelections)

[ObserverIE]

The funniest thing is that Fianna Fáil have apparently dropped to 10% support.

wtf.

If FF's best shot at some degree of relevance is to be the junior partner in a government coalition, and if the party continues to have no real ideology, doesn't that mean it's doomed to disappear?

They self-refer as Ireland's "Republican Party". SF is clearly Republican too. If SF can convince people they are not terrorists, FF could disappear.

FF is traditionally a centrist party:

• cross-class appeal, although traditionally strong among smaller farmers and the urban working and lower middle classes, and weaker among the established, "old money" middle classes, and with a self-image of being outside the establishment,
• economically centrist and trade union-friendly although moderately socially conservative on sexual issues,
• fairly nationalist on Northern Ireland/Irish unity.

If it has an international parallel, it might be the Canadian Liberal Party...

Sinn Féin would be further to the left economically and its organisation on the ground is very weak in a lot of places. The memories of 69-94 would also be offputting to older voters. In short, I can't see it happening on a wide scale. I expect them to hold on and possibly recover a bit outside Greater Dublin. On the other hand, I didn't expect the scale of the clusterf**k over the Presidential election.

As far as the opinion polls go, 10% just strikes me as being too low at the moment. I'd think their current level of support is about 15% (at least before the aforementioned clusterf**k). The fact that Labour are in a government which is likely to be unpopular in the longer term, rather than leading the opposition, gives them some sort of a chance of recovery.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

If the party gets below 10%, they risk not winning any seats due to the electoral system and their spread-out vote. That's more what I mean. I could see those centrist/left people going SF, but only if SF changes itself. The longer we get away from the Troubles, the more of a chance SF has to do better. The "problem" is that the more successful parties get, the more centrist voters they need to attract, the more centrist they become. Look at what happened to all the "Communist Politicians", MP's and such, in eastern Europe in 1987, and where they all were in 1992. Many of them were suddenly now right-wingers. That's because there was only one party, when you do have options, this happens to a lesser degree. By the time SF becomes electible to government, it will be different from the SF we know now. Think of how much the party has changed just during Adams term as leader.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Sinn Fein already forms part of the government in part of Ireland.

[ObserverIE]

First poll with all seven potential candidates (Millward Brown/IMS online for the Irish Independent, sample size 500, margin of error 4%)

David Norris 27%
Michael D. Higgins 18%
Martin McGuinness 15%
Mary Davis 15?%
Seán Gallagher 11%
Gay Mitchell 10%
Dana Rosemary Scallon 4%

McGuinness VS Norris (if that were the final ballot) Norris would win. McGuinness VS Higgins, Higgins wins. VS Davis, Davis wins, etc

How about Norris VS Higgins, or, Norris VS Davis?

The number of eliminations and transfers required will make things complex. The big caveat about these assumptions is that they're based on the current levels of support.

Scallon's vote represents a very socially-conservative (though not necessarily economically right-wing) base. I don't see much of it going to Norris or McGuinness and very little to Higgins. The remainder should favour Mitchell over Gallagher or Davis, though perhaps not by enough to save him from the next elimination.

Mitchell's vote represents the most hard-core, traditionalist part of the Fine Gael base - authoritarian both socially and on law and order issues, hostile to Irish nationalism, economically right-wing, viscerally anti-Fianna Fáil for reasons long predating Haughey or Ahern. Some will go to Higgins as a coalition partner, some may go to Norris as a perceived way of stopping McGuinness. Gallagher's business background might make him superficially attractive, but his Fianna Fáil links would tell against him, so I'd see Davis as being the main beneficiary.

Gallagher's vote would probably favour Davis as a fellow independent (and the most likely other recipient of the "culturally Fianna Fáil" vote) moreso than Norris. McGuinness and Higgins would get smaller portions of the vote.

At this point, you're probably looking at an order of Norris-Davis-Higgins-McGuinness. McGuinness's anti-establishment vote would be most likely to go to Norris, the consciously left-wing portion would go to Higgins, and the nationalist/republican/ex-FF part would largely go to Davis and Higgins.

This might move Higgins ahead of Davis, and I'd expect her votes to favour Higgins over Norris. I'd also expect Higgins' votes - once you factor in transfers received - to marginally favour Davis over Norris, but not by enough to stop Norris.

[ObserverIE]

Higgins should be the Labour guy ? Well, that's encouraging.

Given that he'd been in a comfortable lead until Norris re-entered the race, not so much.

Norris, if he were to be forced into a party, would be closer to Labour than any other, no?

He'd be close to the middle-class, secular liberal wing of Labour; I'm not sure how really economically left-wing he is (but then much the same can be said about the Labour Party these days...).

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That's Fine Gael being Fine Gael, and in particular Gay Mitchell being Gay Mitchell. The more people see or hear of Mitchell, the lower his vote is likely to go. In any case, portraying yourself as the anti-Shinner candidate is pointless when it doesn't look as if the Shinner is likely to win and you yourself are in sixth place out of seven

[MaxQue]

There is no FF candidate?

[ObserverIE]

The funniest thing is that Fianna Fáil have apparently dropped to 10% support.

wtf.

If FF's best shot at some degree of relevance is to be the junior partner in a government coalition, and if the party continues to have no real ideology, doesn't that mean it's doomed to disappear?

cough, cough, blatant plug, cough, cough.

I'll make two immediate quibbles about that posting, although most of it is sound enough:

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Up until the 1970s and the arrival of Garret FitzGerald at the helm of Fine Gael, Fianna Fáil would arguably have been the less closely associated of the two main parties with craven obeisance to the RCC, and from personal observation I don't see much correlation between church attendance and political loyalties.

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It may have been a factor in working-class areas, but an equally important factor was the memory of Fianna Fáil being the party of social reform (urban housing schemes and slum clearance in the 1930s, the introduction of free secondary education, improvements in social welfare and pensions) and the fact that the party traditionally got on quite well with trade unions, as opposed to the cold hostility received from Fine Gael. Labour were starting from a weak base and up until 1992 were always committed to supporting coalitions in which Fine Gael would be the dominant partner.

[ObserverIE]

There is no FF candidate?

Nope. At least not officially.

One of their MEPs, Brian Crowley, has been interested in running for a long time and Éamon Ó Cuív, grandson of de Valera, cabinet minister until February and self-appointed guardian of the traditional soul of FF, was also interested in running.

After the election defeat, the leadership's inclination was not to run an official candidate; an election campaign would have cost money the party no longer had with no chance of success. Then it emerged that Gay Byrne had been contacted by the party leader to run as an independent candidate with party support. This put the noses of the prospective party candidates out of joint, and they were knocked further out of joint when Byrne eventually declined.

Crowley eventually said that he wouldn't run, but there were a number of fractious meetings over whether to run a candidate, whether to allow TDs or Senators to lend support to other indepedent candidates, or to abstain from the nomination process altogether. The decision made two weeks ago, after reported threats of resignation from Ó Cuív (newly appointed as party deputy leader), was to abstain.

Then last week, with the renewed mention of a Norris candidacy and the expected arrival of McGuinness into the race, one of the FF Senators (many of whom are p'd off with the party leader because he tried to dump them in favour of (relatively) newer (relatively) shinier models) decided that he wanted to run as an independent candidate. After a couple of days of speculation, another fractious meeting was held at which the party leader got his way and there will be no FF candidate.

However...

Of the independent candidates, Gallagher (a panellist on the Irish edition of Dragon's Den) was a member of the Fianna Fáil National Executive until late last year and was briefly mentioned last year as a possible FF general election candidate in Louth, and Davis has a number of ex-FF backroom staff working on her campaign.

[ObserverIE]

RedC poll for the Sunday Business Post, sample:1000

With only the five candidates officially nominated so far:

Michael D. Higgins 27
Martin McGuinness 20
Mary Davis 20
Gay Mitchell 18
Seán Gallagher 15

With all eight(!) potential candidates:

David Norris 21
Michael D. Higgins 18
Martin McGuinness 16
Mary Davis 13
Gay Mitchell 13
Seán Gallagher 11
Dana Rosemary Scallon 6
Labhrás Ó Murchú 1

Party support

FG 33 (down 8 since RedC's last poll in May)
Lab 16 (down 3)
FF 15 (down 1)
SF 15 (up 4)
Greens 2
Others 19 (up 8 )

RedC has tended to slightly overstate FG support in the past.

http://guthanphobail.net/index.htm (in Irish but the basics should be clear).

[Oakvale]

I wish Red C would distinguish between the ULA-ers and "others". I wish all polling companies would do that, actually.

[ObserverIE]

I wish Red C would distinguish between the ULA-ers and "others". I wish all polling companies would do that, actually.

While I agree, the ULA are still officially two separate organisations, and I don't see the local affiliates of the CWI and the IS agreeing a merger soon. Indeed, I wonder how long it will be before we see a bust-up between the two. But either has more seats than the fecking Green Party.

There's also the question of how distinct the general public view the ULA as being from the likes of Wallace, McGrath, and other left-wing independents.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

The two ULA leaders (of their respective parties) hate one another.

Also, do you think there'll be any breakdowns by party in the polls? for example?

FG supporters
20% Gay
40% Norris
10% Higgins

SF supporters
50% McGuinness
30% Norris

Labour supporters
30% Higgins
30% Norris

etc etc etc

[ObserverIE]

The two ULA leaders (of their respective parties) hate one another.

Also, do you think there'll be any breakdowns by party in the polls? for example?

FG supporters
20% Gay
40% Norris
10% Higgins

SF supporters
50% McGuinness
30% Norris

Labour supporters
30% Higgins
30% Norris

etc etc etc

The accompanying comment article in the paper (not online) says that Mitchell is attracting only a quarter of FG voters and that Norris, when added, gets almost as many from that party. No other details provided.

[Јas]

I wish Red C would distinguish between the ULA-ers and "others". I wish all polling companies would do that, actually.

I understand RedC would have no issue doing so, but that they are simply following their terms of reference from SBP.

[Јas]

Looks like the 20 Oireachtas nominations route is beyond Norris now with Mattie McGrath's decision not to sign his papers.

But he has just gotten the backing of Laois County Council; will probably get Dublin City Council later today as well.

Carlow and Roscommon CCs are meeting today as well and could nominate either Norris or Dana. Another 7 or so councils are meeting tomorow.

Looks like both will get sufficient council nominations in time.

[Јas]

Carlow split 5-5 on the Norris nomination. Chairman (FG) cast against - they've apparently nominated Dana now, giving her her 1st nomination.

Limerick and Roscommon CCs are about to hold meetings now.

[ObserverIE]

South Dublin (which is actually Tallaght/Rathfarnham/Lucan/Clondalkin in case anyone actually knows Dublin geography) has voted 12-11 not to support Norris.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

Do you think there'd be any backlash if Norris does not manage a nomination?

[ObserverIE]

Do you think there'd be any backlash if Norris does not manage a nomination?

I would expect it to create more cynicism about the political system if the candidate who hasn't a hope in hell of winning (Dana) gets through while a candidate who has significant support (though he won't win) gets blocked.

[Јas]

Today's Council Meetings
Donegal 10am
Cork 10.30am
Waterford City 1pm
Westmeath 2pm
Offaly 2pm
Longford 4pm
Dublin City 6.45pm
Cavan 7pm

[ObserverIE]

Donegal says Aye to Dana.

[Andrea]

Cork on Norris
9 in favour
20 against
7 abstentions

[Andrea]

Waterford on Norris
6 in favour
3 against
5 abstentions

[minionofmidas]

Waterford on Norris
6 in favour
3 against
5 abstentions

Is that a nomination, or do abstentions count like nays?

[Andrea]

Waterford on Norris
6 in favour
3 against
5 abstentions

Is that a nomination, or do abstentions count like nays?

yes, it's a nomination