Bachmann's Path to Victory

[Progressive]

For those of you who think Bachmann will win the GOP nomination, can you tell me what you believer her path to victory will be during the primaries? I don't mean if you support her, I mean if you believe she will be the nominee.

[Yelnoc]

Don't say anything stupid and let Romney character-assassinate Perry.  Than ride the Tea Party wave to victory.  At least, that's what I would bet on if I thought she was going anywhere, which I don't.

[Progressive]

Don't say anything stupid and let Romney character-assassinate Perry.  Than ride the Tea Party wave to victory.  At least, that's what I would bet on if I thought she was going anywhere, which I don't.

Specifically though...like what states...i.e. win in Iowa, lose NH, win SC, win FL?

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

I highly doubt she will win, but for the fun of it:

Bachmann wins Iowa quite strongly, making her the definitive "Tea Party" candidate over Paul or Cain. In New Hampshire she has practically no chance of winning, but she would benefit from a very weak Romney/Perry victory or, even better, a slight Ron Paul win in a divided field (caused by Romney and Perry being weakened). Then she probably loses South Carolina to Perry, but ideally gains endorsements from Cain and maybe Santorum. Romney almost certainly wins Nevada, but without much steam going into ST. If she gets incredibly lucky, Ron Paul will win New Hampshire and maybe another state or two, perform horribly somewhere, drop out and endorse her (the two are on much better terms than Paul was with any 08 opponent), resulting in considerable strength in the west.

From here, she can basically coast to victory. In the best case scenario, she has Iowa and New Hampshire in addition to momentum, meaning she doesn't need to do much to win. Otherwise, with at least Iowa as a base she can use tea party clout mixed with endorsements to win in places like New York and Georgia, which, when added to her natural strength in the midwest and southwest, would probably be sufficient (Perry would likely do best in certain southern states while Romney might do better in certain western and northeastern states and Paul might take some of the remainder depending on performance).

[anvi]

I don't believe she'll go anywhere either; I think she'll be toast by Super Tuesday.  But for someone who believes she can win, the path would look something like this (and please be aware that I'm spitballing big-time here).  

Win in Iowa and hope that a Romney win in New Hampshire takes wind out of Perry's sails and cash out of his coffers.  Try to build up women's support from the GOP in the meantime and eek out a win in South Carolina.  Now, if Romney wins Nevada, four contests have gone by without a Perry victory, and by now he must really be running short on confidence and donations.

There are, let's say, three contests on Feb. 7, and even if Bachmann loses Florida, she could pick up Minnesota and North Dakota, and if it's Romney who wins Florida, Perry is out.

Of the three possible remaining contests before Super Tuesday, Bachmann could win Georgia, where Romney's polls are bad, and really fight him hard in Arizona by accusing him of being a flip-flopper on immigration issues.  If she makes it a close contest, she can head into Super Tuesday with some steam.

Then, on Super Tuesday, Bachmann can, if she has done this well so far, win the contests in Idaho, Oklahoma and Tennessee.  The big showdown will be in Texas, and if she can come out of Super Tuesday with those four states, she can try to finish Romney off with wins in Alabama and Mississippi before Romney has a chance to punch back in Illinois.

Like I said, I don't believe this will happen.  I think that, even if Bachmann wins Iowa, Perry has a good chance of stopping her cold in South Carolina, and after that, she'll fade quickly.

[Bull Moose Base]

Not so complicated.  Others have the basic idea.  Perry could theoretically make more or bigger mistakes and receive more attack from Romney.  She wins Iowa, riding that momentum wins South Carolina, accelerating the momentum and deflating Perry until he gives up.  She puts Romney away.

[CJK]

She could attack Romney for Romneycare and attack Perry for being an open borders/amnesty RINO, then position herself as the true conservative candidate.

[milhouse24]

what if Sarah Palin beats her in Iowa?

[anvi]

If Bachmann loses to anyone in Iowa, she is finished.

[nhmagic]

I wouldn't hold it past her to eke out a win up here in NH.  NH voters are more right wing and less right wing on any given day of the week.  She could have a good night.  Romney's support across the party may be a lot wider, but its an inch deep.  For a successful strategy, she should let Romney and Perry attack each other.  If they attack her, she can easily dispatch them the way she did Pawlenty the other night in the debate.  It's kind of like a Rick Lazio/Hillary Clinton scenario.  If Romney and Perry pummel each other enough, it will make her look like a reasonable alternative.  Additionally, she is, so to speak, the odd man out in this three-way.  I don't think that Perry's base is as different from Romney's as is indicated by the press.  Her strategy right now is paying off pretty well, so I would suggest for her not to diverge from it.  Continued successful debate performances and tv appearances (like todays MTP, minus the 6 minute onslaught of gay marriage questioning) will go a long way in reducing the scare factor among potential donors and moderates.

[AUH2O Libertarian]

She would need to win Iowa, hope Perry takes enough support from Romney that Paul manages to squeak out a win (or extremely close second) in NH.  Then have Paul win Nevada.  By then the evangelicals in SC and Florida would need to rally around her to prevent Paul from gaining any more traction.  Then she'd have to clean up on Super Tuesday.

[AUH2O Libertarian]

Oops, double post.

[Bleach Blonde Bad Built Butch Bodies for Biden]

Don't say anything stupid

How else will she get Tea Party support?

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Not lose too many male TP voters to Perry is the first point for me.

The GOP primary is the not Dem primary, winning IA and SC only proves fundamentalists and fundamentalist southerners like you...

NH is the key - she cannot be seen to have 'lost' it - perform at expectations -> but if she intends to win the nomination, she cannot run as Huckabee - she will need to win one big industrial state early on... but the problem is that state will probably be Michigan... not exactly going to help her.

I don't know if she can afford too many 'placings' and only winning in the bible-belt. Plus, unlike Huckabee, she doesn't have a real natural conservative geographic base - I would expect Romney to do well in states he won in 08 as well as those Northern McCain states...

To put it simply... she's going to have to pull an upset in a large industrial/moderate state to survive.

[Bleach Blonde Bad Built Butch Bodies for Biden]

Not lose too many male TP voters to Perry is the first point for me.

The GOP primary is the not Dem primary, winning IA and SC only proves fundamentalists and fundamentalist southerners like you...

NH is the key - she cannot be seen to have 'lost' it - perform at expectations -> but if she intends to win the nomination, she cannot run as Huckabee - she will need to win one big industrial state early on... but the problem is that state will probably be Michigan... not exactly going to help her.

I don't know if she can afford too many 'placings' and only winning in the bible-belt. Plus, unlike Huckabee, she doesn't have a real natural conservative geographic base - I would expect Romney to do well in states he won in 08 as well as those Northern McCain states...

To put it simply... she's going to have to pull an upset in a large industrial/moderate state to survive.

I... half-agree.  Romney should do well in northern states, but I doubt he'll do too well in the South.  In 2008, he didn't carry a single southern state in the primary, possibly because of his religion.  Bachmann will probably be the "Huckabee" of this campaign and do well in those states.  That's where her geographic base will be.  That, and the Midwest.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

I think the South (except FL) will be divided among Bachmann and Perry, with Romney and Paul placing.

The Mormon thing was a problem in the South in 08 and it will be now.

Also, I wouldn't be too sure about how well Bachmann will do in the Midwest (outside of IA)

[Bleach Blonde Bad Built Butch Bodies for Biden]

I think the South (except FL) will be divided among Bachmann and Perry, with Romney and Paul placing.

The Mormon thing was a problem in the South in 08 and it will be now.

Also, I wouldn't be too sure about how well Bachmann will do in the Midwest (outside of IA)

Well, I know this sounds a little superficial, but I think a lot of Midwesterners tend to favor... well, Midwesterners.  Indiana went to Obama in '08 and McCain's victory was so narrow in Missouri that there could have been a recount if one was needed.