Predict Iowa now, based on Ames results

[King]

Bachmann 29%
Paul 28%
Pawlenty 14%
Santorum 10%
Cain 9%
Perry 4%
Romney 3%
Gingrich 2%
Huntsman 0%
McCotter 0%

[redcommander]

Romney isn't going to get below 5% in Iowa. Even McCain managed to get more than 5, and he basically wrote off the state much more than Romney has.

[ajc0918]

Looking at the field, there's a strong chance a bigot will win in Iowa.

[tmthforu94]

Bachmann - 23%
Paul - 19%
Romney- 17%
Perry - 16%
Pawlenty - 10%
Santorum - 7%
Cain - 5%
Gingrich - 2%
Huntsman - 1%

I'll have to wait for more polling with Palin in the mix as well, but I think there's a reasonable shot of Romney pulling through and winning Iowa if both Palin and Perry are competing there.

[NVGonzalez]

1.Perry 36
2. Bachmann 30
3. Romney 12
4. Paul 11
5. Cain 6
6. Pawlenty 2
7. Gingrich 2
The rest get peas

[AUH2O Libertarian]

Paul ~30%
Bachmann ~26%
Romney ~26%
Perry ~10%
Cain~3%
Santorum ~2%
Pawlenty ~1%
Everyone Else ~1%

[RodPresident]

Paul: 24%
Bachmann: 23%
Romney: 15%
Perry: 15%
Santorum: 8%
Pawlenty: 8%
Cain: 5%
Gingrich: 2%

[Thomas D]

1.Perry 30
2. Bachmann 25
3. Romney 18
4. Paul 15
5. Pawlenty 6
6. Cain 6

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

Looking at the field, there's a strong chance a bigot will win in Iowa.

We already have a bigot as President. Everyone of our Presidents was a racist to some variation, even Lincoln. Not much a big deal in that case.

[Verily]

Bachmann: 37% [+1 from Pawlenty dropping out]
Perry: 30% [+1]
Paul: 17%
Romney: 8% [+1]
Pawlenty: 3%
Cain: 2%
Others: <1% each

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

Buddy Roemer.

[Meeker]

Bachmann: 30%
Perry: 21%
Romney: 19%
Paul: 14%
Pawlenty: 6%
Cain: 5%
Santorum: 3%
Everyone else: 2%

[All Along The Watchtower]

Bachmann: 33%
Perry: 27%
Paul: 15%
Pawlenty: 8%
Romney: 7%
Santorum:5%
Cain: 3%
Others: 2% total


No one's gonna lose a bet by underestimating the craziness of the modern Republican electorate.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

Bachmann 32%
Perry 27%
Paul 20%
Cain 10%
Romney 7%
Pawlenty 2%
Scattered 2%

[Yelnoc]

Looking at the field, there's a strong chance a bigot will win in Iowa.

We already have a bigot as President. Everyone of our Presidents was a racist to some variation, even Lincoln. Not much a big deal in that case.

[citation needed]

[Lucius Quintus Cincinatus Lamar]

Perry.  29%
Romney 20%
Bachmann 18%
T-Paw.  13%
Cain.      6%
Paul.      6%
Santorum 5%
Gingrich. 3%
others.    1%

Paul does well in the straw poll, but not the primary.  Perry becomes fav of social conservatives, even though he thumbed his nose at the straw poll.

[Jacobtm]

Nate Silver predicted:



He also notes that since 1979, the winner of the Iowa caucuses always placed 1st or 2nd in Ames. So if precedent holds, the winner will be Bachman or Paul.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

Looking at the field, there's a strong chance a bigot will win in Iowa.

We already have a bigot as President. Everyone of our Presidents was a racist to some variation, even Lincoln. Not much a big deal in that case.

I wouldn't consider Obama, Bush Jr., or Clinton to be racists, or any president since Reagan. Maybe if you really stretch the definition of racism, then I guess everyone is.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tbud8rLejLM

[Thomas D]

Bumped to make us all look like fools.

[Averroës Nix]

Bumped to make us all look like fools.

Think so? The most common top 4 consists of Paul, Romney, Bachmann, and Perry. Which, honestly, doesn't seem that unlikely at this point.

[Simfan34]

Gingrich at 2.7%? Yep, all fools.

[Meeker]

Bachmann: 30%
Perry: 21%
Romney: 19%
Paul: 14%
Pawlenty: 6%
Cain: 5%
Santorum: 3%
Everyone else: 2%

Yikes.

[Free Palestine]

Ron Paul will win.