Kentucky???

[Tender Branson]

Kentucky will be about 59-40 for the Republican next year, especially with Rick Perry on the ticket. With some other candidates like Romney or Bachmann, the margin could be about 2-3% closer. But let's wait for a SurveyUSA poll out of the state.

Not a chance in hell Perry does better than Romney.

I wouldn't be so sure of that. Of course, if PPP would poll KY now, Romney would do better against Obama, because Perry isn't really known yet to most of the KY voters. I think Romney has a 80% name recognition and Perry a 40% one. But if SurveyUSA or PPP would poll KY in December, I think Perry would have more appeal than Romney in a state like KY.

[Keystone Phil]

Sarah Palin is the only candidate that would lose states like Kentucky.

No.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

I wouldn't be so sure of that. Of course, if PPP would poll KY now, Romney would do better against Obama, because Perry isn't really known yet to most of the KY voters.

Perry is known. And we don't like him.

[Tender Branson]

I wouldn't be so sure of that. Of course, if PPP would poll KY now, Romney would do better against Obama, because Perry isn't really known yet to most of the KY voters.

Perry is known. And we don't like him.

Maybe known to you because you are a nerd, but unknown to the vast majority of actual voters.

[Keystone Phil]

I wouldn't be so sure of that. Of course, if PPP would poll KY now, Romney would do better against Obama, because Perry isn't really known yet to most of the KY voters.

Perry is known. And we don't like him.

Humor us and ask someone that doesn't live inside your house if they know and like Perry. Go ahead and ask more than two people if you really want to make us happy.

[King]

Sarah Palin is the only candidate that would lose states like Kentucky.

No.

She's only beating Obama by 2 points in Utah.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Humor us and ask someone that doesn't live inside your house if they know and like Perry. Go ahead and ask more than two people if you really want to make us happy.

I already have.

If Perry wins Kentucky, it means that either the election is rigged, or GOP supporters have moved so far away from populated areas that the rural areas make up their whole margin.

[King]

Humor us and ask someone that doesn't live inside your house if they know and like Perry. Go ahead and ask more than two people if you really want to make us happy.

I already have.

If Perry wins Kentucky, it means that either the election is rigged, or GOP supporters have moved so far away from populated areas that the rural areas make up their whole margin.

Well this is true regardless.

[Keystone Phil]

Sarah Palin is the only candidate that would lose states like Kentucky.

No.

She's only beating Obama by 2 points in Utah.

And you believe that that's accurate? I understand that the woman is very unpopular but when it comes down to it, people in states like Utah and Kentucky will vote for her over someone they dislike even more (the President).

[Tender Branson]

Humor us and ask someone that doesn't live inside your house if they know and like Perry. Go ahead and ask more than two people if you really want to make us happy.

I already have.

If Perry wins Kentucky, it means that either the election is rigged, or GOP supporters have moved so far away from populated areas that the rural areas make up their whole margin.

Rural KY voters may be registered Democrats, but are nothing else than Republicans.

And these "Democrats" will end up voting for Perry by a really big margin.

[Keystone Phil]

Humor us and ask someone that doesn't live inside your house if they know and like Perry. Go ahead and ask more than two people if you really want to make us happy.

I already have.

If Perry wins Kentucky, it means that either the election is rigged

Either the election is rigged? Is there really another option? I thought it was always rigged when a Republican wins, Bandit. And somehow you still have the guts to say that Republicans whine that elections are stolen...

And to think that someone said to me, "At least Bandit is moving away from the whole 'the election was stolen' routine." I knew you wouldn't let us down.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Rural KY voters may be registered Democrats, but are nothing else than Republicans.

And these "Democrats" will end up voting for Perry by a really big margin.

Remember, Kentucky has this little thing called Elliott County.

[King]

Sarah Palin is the only candidate that would lose states like Kentucky.

No.

She's only beating Obama by 2 points in Utah.

And you believe that that's accurate? I understand that the woman is very unpopular but when it comes down to it, people in states like Utah and Kentucky will vote for her over someone they dislike even more (the President).

It could be 10-15 points off and still a joke for a Republican in Utah.  

I disagree that they do not dislike Obama even more.  Palin wears her negative aspects on her sleeve and has only one skill: digging herself in a deeper hole.  Once you don't like somebody, you don't like somebody.

Utah, Wyoming, Idaho, Oklahoma, and Alabama might still vote Palin, but by the end of a long campaign, it would take a lot more than our current situation for her to win more than that.

She has nowhere to go but down, which is why she won't run and if she did she wouldn't get nominated as even Bachmann and Perry are ten times better.

[Tender Branson]

Rural KY voters may be registered Democrats, but are nothing else than Republicans.

And these "Democrats" will end up voting for Perry by a really big margin.

Remember, Kentucky has this little thing called Elliott County.

Probably a bunch of poor, white hippies concentrated in these few counties ...

[CatoMinor]

Humor us and ask someone that doesn't live inside your house if they know and like Perry. Go ahead and ask more than two people if you really want to make us happy.

He'd likely find more people that like him there in KY than I would here in Texas were we've actually lived under his reign.

[pbrower2a]

The case for any Republican winning against Obama in Kentucky in 2012:

1. The state can vote for Democrats, but only Southern moderates. The state hasn't voted for a Northern liberal since JFK in 1960. Eisenhower won the state twice. Gore forgot his Southern roots in 2000 and lost the state.

Beginning with 1952 with Kentucky:

northern liberals 1 (JFK)
southern moderates 3 (LBJ, Carter 1976, Clinton twice)
Republicans 10 (Eisenhower twice, Nixon twice, Reagan twice, GHWB 1992, Dubya twice, McCain)

Does anyone expect Barack Obama to be an exception?

2. The state wasn't close in 2008. The news media called Kentucky promptly for John McCain in a bad year for Republicans. A state voting for the losing side in a Presidential election by a 10% or higher margin suggests that the partisan edge in that state is decisively with the Party that lost that election.

3. This is the state that gave America Senator Mitch McConnell, who has said that his first priority is to ensure that Barack Obama be a one-term President. Such suggests that running against Barack Obama is good politics in Kentucky even if it might be bad politics for someone from Ohio.

4. This is the state that elected Rand Paul despite his staffers roughing up a heckler.

5. The President will not be campaigning for any Senatorial candidate in Kentucky.

Now the other side:

1. The Republicans can nominate someone absolutely nuts.

2. Polarization that has so marked the Presidential elections beginning in 2000 may have abated. In a 53-46 election like 1944 with little interstate polarization (outside of the Solid South) the President could win all but the absolutely-safest states for Republicans.

3. We don't have any recent (post-election) polls for Kentucky.

[memphis]

Sadly, bandit is following the same Phil logic from the 2008 race. Obama can't be doing well in Pennsylvania or white Philly. I know people and they're all against him.

[Keystone Phil]

I disagree that they do not dislike Obama even more.  Palin wears her negative aspects on her sleeve and has only one skill: digging herself in a deeper hole.  Once you don't like somebody, you don't like somebody.

And they dislike Obama, too. They happen to at least agree with Palin on policy. Your points here are just laughable. With 9% unemployment and another global economic crisis in the making, states like Utah are going to be tough for Palin to win? Please.

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Idaho would even be a battle ground? Yeah. Ok.

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That makes zero sense.

 

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I've said that for over a year anyway.

[Keystone Phil]

Sadly, bandit is following the same Phil logic from the 2008 race. Obama can't be doing well in Pennsylvania or white Philly. I know people and they're all against him.

Memphis, I know you dislike me because I don't have time for your idiocy but don't compare Bandit's "knowing" people to what I said in 2008. I'm actually involved in politics. I actually participate in the community. Bandit is so isolated from reality that he declared his surrounding area a new country.

Oh, and I never said or suggested that "they're all against him." So stop the trolling. Feel free to dislike me but don't exaggerate what I've said in the past.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

With 9% unemployment and another global economic crisis in the making, states like Utah are going to be tough for Palin to win?

In northern Kentucky, 9% unemployment is actually a huge improvement.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

Yes, against opponents that would play well in the state on social issues during a horrible economy, Obama would absolutely win the state.

Bachmann and Perry are both nuts, and people know it.

And Perry has a terrible economic record when you look just below the surface.

[King]

Phil, Palin is so obviously awful that unemployment can be 15% and people would not vote Palin because it's obvious that she is not capable of doing better.

[Zot]

Obama will lose Kentucky regardless of who he runs against.

[DS0816]

Kentucky has gone the way of Tennessee and Illinois and Delaware: out of the bellwether camp into the PVI strongly advantaged for a given party.

[Zot]

I'm glad Kentucky has moved the right way.