CO-PPP: Obama, with 50% disapproval, leads Romney by 7, others by more

[Bull Moose Base]

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_CO_08101118.pdf

Obama: Approve 46 Disapprove 50

Obama 48
Romney 41

Obama 51
Perry 38

Obama 51
Bachmann 39

Obama 54
Palin 38

Obama 51
Cain 35

[Devilman88]

This sample is too democratic I believe. Not that it matters because I can't see ibama losing CO

[Fuzzybigfoot]

LOL   How is Romney at 30/51%?

[King]

LOL   How is Romney at 30/51%?

Liberals who hate his hard line conservativism and conservatives who despise how liberal he is.

[Landslide Lyndon]

I'm surprised at how fast and how much Colorado has moved to the Democrats. It has become the opposite of West Virginia.

[Tender Branson]

Re-calculated using current Colorado registration figures (35% IND, 33% GOP, 32% DEM):

44.5% Obama
43.6% Romney

[Devilman88]

Well isn't alot of people from Cali moving there?

[Bull Moose Base]

Re-calculated using current Colorado registration figures (35% IND, 33% GOP, 32% DEM):

44.5% Obama
43.6% Romney

I assume the party registration was the same or more Republican when Obama beat McCain by 8.5 points.

[California8429]

Well isn't alot of people from Cali moving there?

Where did you get that from?

[Devilman88]

Re-calculated using current Colorado registration figures (35% IND, 33% GOP, 32% DEM):

44.5% Obama
43.6% Romney

that seems more like what i would expect with a disapproval of 50 in CO

[Devilman88]

Well isn't alot of people from Cali moving there?

Where did you get that from?

I thought I read it a while back somewhere could be mistaking.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

Maybe plower's +6 rule is accurate if we believe these polls.

[Tender Branson]

Re-calculated using current Colorado registration figures (35% IND, 33% GOP, 32% DEM):

44.5% Obama
43.6% Romney

I assume the party registration was the same or more Republican when Obama beat McCain by 8.5 points.

The 2008 Exit Poll showed a 39% IND, 31% GOP, 30% DEM sample.

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/results/polls/#COP00p1

The CO Secretary of State showed election day registration of 34% IND, 33% GOP, 33% DEM.

http://www.sos.state.co.us/pubs/elections/VoterRegNumbers/2008/November/VR_Stats_by_Party.pdf

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

I'm surprised at how fast and how much Colorado has moved to the Democrats. It has become the opposite of West Virginia.

There is nothing correct about that analogy. Colorado has been highly competitive on the local level going back decades. Heck, Bill Owens is the only Republican to have served as governor between 1975 and 2011.

During the same time, West Virginia was solidly Democratic, going Republican only on the rarest of occasions.

[Landslide Lyndon]

I'm surprised at how fast and how much Colorado has moved to the Democrats. It has become the opposite of West Virginia.

There is nothing correct about that analogy. Colorado has been highly competitive on the local level going back decades. Heck, Bill Owens is the only Republican to have served as governor between 1975 and 2011.

During the same time, West Virginia was solidly Democratic, going Republican only on the rarest of occasions.

We are talking about presidential elections here.

[DrScholl]

The sample is totally irrelevant, since PPP doesn't really use it as a screen really. Tinkering with the numbers to make them better for Romney doesn't make the topline inaccurate, it just puts Romney close to McCain's number and under counts for Obama.

[pbrower2a]

Obama vs. Romney

Obama vs. Bachmann

Obama vs. Palin

Obama vs. Perry

Favorite Sons:


Obama vs. local favorite sons

[krazen1211]

This sample is too democratic I believe. Not that it matters because I can't see ibama losing CO

Yep. Even by a registered voter model they nicely got themselves an excess of D's.

[pbrower2a]

This sample is too democratic I believe. Not that it matters because I can't see ibama losing CO

Yep. Even by a registered voter model they nicely got themselves an excess of D's.

It is too early to figure who will be the registered voters of 2012. Democrats and their political associates will do everything possible to register as many new voters as possible in Colorado and elsewhere -- as in 2008. I am satisfied that the McCain-Obama gap is a fair representation of the likely split.

[California8429]

I'm surprised at how fast and how much Colorado has moved to the Democrats. It has become the opposite of West Virginia.

There is nothing correct about that analogy. Colorado has been highly competitive on the local level going back decades. Heck, Bill Owens is the only Republican to have served as governor between 1975 and 2011.

During the same time, West Virginia was solidly Democratic, going Republican only on the rarest of occasions.

We are talking about presidential elections here.

His point is still valid. We elect lots of democrats on local levels so it isn't as if the party doesn't exist and that all of a sudden we've become liberal. These local officials just tend to be a lot more moderate, but still the fact remains that the democratic party has been strong in Colorado locally so nationally it isn't a huge shocker. And one Presidential election mirroring the national average in favor of the democrat of the last few cycles doesn't mean we're a shoe in for democrats. Look at Obama's weak approval numbers. Every where in the country he's winning against specific names, but not a generic republican and his approvals are not great. Once there's actually a republican nominee and voters pay attention and learn about the candidates instead of just listening to a little bashing now and then by media pundits or other candidates, we'll get an actual picture of the future of Colorado which could just as easily vote republican in 2012 as it could vote for Obama's re-election.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

I'm a little surprised by these numbers given Obama has a 50% disapproval rating. I think Romney would have a reasonable shot at winning here if Obama's national approval remains low. Colorado hasn't become that liberal of a state, has it? I know the GOP blew 2010 by nominating a tea partier, but they did that in a number of states.

[krazen1211]

It is too early to figure who will be the registered voters of 2012. Democrats and their political associates will do everything possible to register as many new voters as possible in Colorado and elsewhere -- as in 2008. I am satisfied that the McCain-Obama gap is a fair representation of the likely split.

Voter registration figures are readily available. The fact that some choose to ignore them is more a sign of the bias of the ignorer than reality.

[Holmes]

Well isn't alot of people from Cali moving there?

Even if it's true, does it matter? It would take a lot of migration from California to Colorado to have a noticeable effect.

[backtored]

The poll's methodology is even more hackneyed than the sort of baloney that PPP usually produces.

Colorado's active voter registration has a solid Republican lean:  37 R, 32 D, 29 I.  So why PPP decided to give Democrats an outrageous 41% share of this poll, is bizarre.

And, for whomever asked, Democrats in 2008 actually had a 2 or 3 point registration advantage for the first time in many years.  But Republicans have actually recovered quite well.

It gets old listening to Beltway pundits--and it looks like some here, too--with very little knowledge of Colorado politics in any historical context, determine willy-nilly that the state is moving dramatically to the left.  Colorado has NEVER been an easy GOP pickup.  It has ALWAYS been a very independent state that swings wildly, and not necessary with the rest of the country (see: 1996, 1998, 2010).  Bill Owens beat a very, very, very liberal Gail Shoettler by less than 1% in 1998, and then won by 20-ish points in 2002.  

And you only have to look at 2010 to see how unruly the state's politics really are.  Last year Republicans took back the state house, won 3 of 5 statewide races, and won a majority of congressional races (taking back roughly a third of all congressional seats from the Democrats).  The only two races the Democrats won were the Senate race (by less than .5%) and the gubernatorial race (where there was no GOP candidate to speak of).  Yet those races were the ones that Washington media focused on and used to determine Colorado's "blue trend."

The reality: Colorado's a conservative state.  But even moreso it's an independent state that voter however it wants, dang it, and you ain't gonna do anything about it.  That western spirit will probably be bad news for Obama in 2012, no matter what this poll says.  I fully expect Romney to win by roughly the same margin that Bush did in 2004.

Look at the Gallup numbers from yesterday.  Obama is doing far worse in Colorado than in Georgia, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Virginia.  Those numbers tell you where 2012 will be won for Team Obama.  And it won't be in Colorado.

[bgwah]

It's always funny to see people talking about Californian migration.

When people are leaving California, they're hard-working conservatives escaping liberal tyranny. But when they arrive in their new state, they've suddenly become liberal invaders importing their evil coastal culture.