Who'll be in power in the following countries in 2016?

[batmacumba]

Austria: SPÖVP
United States: Barack Obama, D Senate R House
United Kingdom: Labour (can anybody tell me why so many people answered Cameron, with that stable to even-growing labour-led polling?)
Germany: SPD/Greens
France: François Hollande, Cohabitation
Australia: Coalition
Netherlands: Mark Rutte
Denmark: Helle Thoring-Schmidt, A-B-F minority, with ø tolerating it.
Spain: PP
Canada: Conservative minority
Italy: PD-led weak coalition
Poland: PO
Belgium: Still a big mess
Sweden: Social-Democrats-led coalition
Finland: NCP-led coalition. Grue Finns as Jr. Party.
New Zealand: John Key
Portugal: PS minority
Ireland: Fine Gael-Labour coalition.
Greece: PASOK minority. KKE, Synaspismos and La.o.s. growth.

[batmacumba]

Finland: NCP-led coalition. Grue Finns as Jr. Party.

I believe this is a typo, but it's still very funny.

What is the reasoning for those who think cohabitiation is possible in France? The Quinquennat has synchronized terms for the presidency and the lower house, or do you think the PS is saving its civil war for the end of its mandate?

Deliberated. If this is against forum policies, no problem,  I'd change it.

For my guess on France: infightings, backlash, EU economy and the trend on maintaining conservative legislators and leftist local administrations, despite national leanings.
I know. These are weak reasons. I'm relying more on my instincts. Not on my wishes, thought.

[batmacumba]

You don't think that the Fourth Republic counts as 'modern times'?

Seen from today, it looks like Antiquity. Most French people would have difficulties to imagine they had that kind of regime just 53 years ago... And of course its political/party systems and voting patterns have nothing in common with today's.

Anyways, I didn't want to express disagreement, just adding some explanations about why we have this situation since 2004. Anti-incumbent vote is a defining factor in French politics, and local elections are kind of "mid-terms" as you said.

But yet, it has not been immediately. It has some delay on turning sides. So it's fair to suppose 60-40% for the left in 2014.
Well, I admitted it was a weak reason. Now, center-right politicians keep polling well, despite Sarkozy (at least on IPSOS), while the left ones keep polling bad, except the prospective presidential candidates (and Lang, for some motive). There was a left surge, between late 2010 and early 2011, but it's getting back to previous state. So that's why I instinctively imagined cohabitation, combined with those really weak political motives.

Germany: Angela Merkel, CDU/Green or CDU/SPD coalition

So far, CDU Chancellors have either been in power for only three years or for a period of ca. 15 years. Merkel is way past the three and clinging to power as the one thing she's really really good at. Besides, the SPD has managed to maintain its aura of general incompetence so far. Fukushima also removed the main obstacle for a CDU/Green coalition at the federal level.

I'd imagined that, but I wondered if the greens wouldn't find they would have better positions and weight at the government, negotiating with the runner-up, witch, after all, had been their most traditional allies. Guess I was relying too much on my own country political patterns. I also thought Stuttgart21 would make Greens refrain from this alliance.
So, how much being the most voted overrides historical common alliances and policies?

[batmacumba]

But yet, it has not been immediately. It has some delay on turning sides. So it's fair to suppose 60-40% for the left in 2014.

Most likely, yes. But if they take over in 2012, the left will probably start facing important losses at the local level.

We're saying the same thing, here. Something like 98, but inverted.

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So far, PS candidates are still polling at unseen levels (Aubry around 26%, Hollande 29%), and for the first time since 1995 they are ahead of the right. Every 2nd round poll gives the PS candidate over 55% (one had Aubry at 53%, but it hasn't been corroborated yet). Before mid-2010, the PS candidates either had a small lead or were tied with Sarkozy. Sure, there is some back-and-forth, and in these days Sarko has certainly gained ground. But so far polls are still quite bright for the PS.

A cohabitation is not impossible : it might happen in such a political climate, where the entire political class is discredited. My philosophy here is "never say never". However, you must remember that, since Presidential and Legislative elections are syncronized, the latter are often considered by the voters as a formality (hence the awful turnout) : it's all about "giving the President his majority". So it's, at least, highly unlikely for a cohabitation to happen in such situation.

Well, I was stating figures for general politicians, not the presidential race. If the IPSOS Baromètre politique is reliable for the last 2 years, there was this surge, but it is slowly fading (including for Hollande and Aubry, despite Hollande's meteorical surge on April and June, self-explained) and right wing politicians are in a really better figure on a sustained basis. One thing I've noticed was this rates of approval independs the chief of state approval. As I've already said, this is not on my wishlist of political developments. My best wishes you folks are right and election synchronization overrides this.

[batmacumba]

That's it, and people on the left are way better than about an year ago. Delanoë was in the best rates for a long time, alone on the left side. Strauss-Kahn surged, when it was clear that he was in the race, Lang shortly after. For obvious reasons, he's no longer there. Aubry surged, and lastly Hollande. For some reason (not being so exposed on the media?) the right wing always polled on top.
As the fall of Sarkozy seemed to not affect it, I've figured out the same lack of political hell transferring could happen on legislative election. The other rightists don't pass me the same level of non-republican appeal that Sarko does. And if this is the reason for his trailing on polls (I'm not having to much information on people's humor about this, my father is the TV5 24 hours guy, not me) more than disenchantment with the government (and, sure if PS is not able to control their own messes), than my spider sense told me there may be cohabitation. Again, hope it's broken.
In 98 I almost lost some limbs for predicting France's victory.