Who'll be in power in the following countries in 2016?
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  Who'll be in power in the following countries in 2016?
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Author Topic: Who'll be in power in the following countries in 2016?  (Read 4830 times)
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change08
Junior Chimp
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« on: August 07, 2011, 06:52:16 PM »
« edited: August 07, 2011, 07:02:25 PM by Refudiate »

Which parties, under which leaders, will be in government in the following countries, 5 years from today in August 2016? Answer as many or as few as you wish.

United States
United Kingdom
Germany
France
Australia
Netherlands
Denmark
Spain
Canada
Italy
Poland
Belgium
Sweden
Finland
New Zealand
Portugal
Ireland
Greece
                                                                 

United States - Barack Obama; GOP House and Senate
United Kingdom - Labour
Germany - SPD/Greens
France - Francois Hollande
Australia - Coalition at the start of August; ALP by the end of it
Netherlands - VVD led government under Mark Rutte
Denmark - Left coalition under Helle Thorning-Schmidt
Spain - People's Party
New Zealand - National led by John Key
Ireland - Fine Gael led government
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redcommander
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« Reply #1 on: August 07, 2011, 10:40:34 PM »
« Edited: August 07, 2011, 10:43:42 PM by SayNotoJonHuntsman »

United States Mitt Romney
United Kingdom David Cameron
Germany Frank-Walter Steinmeier
France Marine Le Pen
Australia Tony Abbott
Netherlands Geert Wilders
Denmark Lars Løkke Rasmussen
Spain Partido Popular (Not sure if Rajoy would still be leader or not)
Canada Stephen Harper
Italy Silvio Berlusconi
Poland PiS
Belgium Yves Leterme I guess?
Sweden Håkan Juholt
Finland Timo Soini
New Zealand John Key
Portugal Pedro Passos Coelho
Ireland Enda Kenny
Greece Antonis Samaras
            
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hawkeye59
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« Reply #2 on: August 07, 2011, 10:56:10 PM »

United States Mitt Romney
United Kingdom David Cameron
Germany Frank-Walter Steinmeier
France Marine Le Pen
Australia Tony Abbott
Netherlands Geert Wilders
Denmark Lars Løkke Rasmussen
Spain Partido Popular (Not sure if Rajoy would still be leader or not)
Canada Stephen Harper
Italy Silvio Berlusconi
Poland PiS
Belgium Yves Leterme I guess?
Sweden Håkan Juholt
Finland Timo Soini
New Zealand John Key
Portugal Pedro Passos Coelho
Ireland Enda Kenny
Greece Antonis Samaras
            
No. Le Pen is far too right-wing
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Hatman 🍁
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« Reply #3 on: August 07, 2011, 11:03:19 PM »

United States - Barack Obama
United Kingdom - David Cameron
Germany - SPD/Green government
France - Francois Hollande
Australia - Coalition
Netherlands - VVD led coalition
Denmark - SD led coalition
Spain - PP led coalition
Canada - Conservatives under a new leader, perhaps Peter McKay
Italy - Bersani
Poland - Huh
Belgium - abolishes federal parliament for regional parliaments
Sweden - The Alliance
Finland - Huh
New Zealand - Labour
Portugal - SDP
Ireland - Fine Gael led coalition
Greece - New Democracy led coalition
                                                    
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #4 on: August 07, 2011, 11:13:17 PM »


He isn't running again and I believe him when he says it.
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redcommander
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« Reply #5 on: August 07, 2011, 11:16:52 PM »


He isn't running again and I believe him when he says it.

His replacement leader of the PdL will win then. I don't see the Left winning considering how incompetent they have been against Berlusconi.
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Bacon King
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« Reply #6 on: August 07, 2011, 11:29:50 PM »

Belgium: still no government lol
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Zarn
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« Reply #7 on: August 07, 2011, 11:32:49 PM »


Best guess of the bunch
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Hatman 🍁
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« Reply #8 on: August 07, 2011, 11:42:06 PM »


I think if that happens, you will see my hypothesis come to fruition.
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Platypus
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« Reply #9 on: August 08, 2011, 12:02:38 AM »

US: Obama, Dem senate, GOP house.
UK: Conservatives.
GER: SDP/?
FRA: UMP. Not sure of President.
AUS: Depending on when the election is, whowver wins the next election will lose the one after it.
NED, DEN, ITA, POL, BEL, SWE FIN: No idea.
ESP: PP.
CAN: The Libs and NDP will have the numbers to form a government. Not sure if they'll actually do so.
NZL: John Key will be there for a long, long time I feel.
IRE: Due for a major shakeup.
GRE: Will no longer exist? Not sure, but not PASOK.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #10 on: August 08, 2011, 02:24:41 AM »

Austria: SPÖVP, Erwin Pröll (ÖVP) President
United States: Barack Obama, Congress: GOP/GOP
United Kingdom: Labour
Germany: SPD-Greens
France: UMP, Hollande President
Australia: The Conservatives
Netherlands: A center-left government
Denmark: Socialist-led government
Spain: PP
Canada: Conservatives
Italy: Center-Left coalition
Poland: PO government
Belgium: Will they even have a government by then ?
Sweden: Red-Green
Finland: True Finns led government
New Zealand: Conservatives
Portugal: Conservatives
Ireland: Something involving Fine Gael
Greece: Conservatives
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TheDeadFlagBlues
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« Reply #11 on: August 08, 2011, 03:20:18 AM »

Someone needs to post some SamSpade/Beet/Lief-type predictions.
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #12 on: August 08, 2011, 04:46:27 AM »

United States : Barack Obama
United Kingdom : No idea, honestly, but I'm gonna bet Cameron is still there unless things get particularly bad
Germany : SPD leading a coalition with the greens. No idea who the Chancelor is
France : Hopefully a socialist, but could be Aubry as well as Hollande
Australia : Labour if the Coalition is still led by Abbot, Coalition otherwise
Netherlands : I'm hopeless for this countyy... Still Mark Rutte
Denmark : Helle Thoring-Schmidt, hopefully
Spain : Sigh... Mariano Rajoy
Canada : I'd give an edge to Stephen Harper, but things could start getting worse for him and we could maybe see the first NDP PM ! Cheesy
Italy : Nichi Vendola ! Cheesy OK, that's a bit of wishful thinking (even though I'm sure he can win)... but it will most certainly be a left-winger.
Poland : No idea, honestly. Hopefully not a PiS guy...
Belgium : Still no government. Tongue Nah, it's definitely impossible to tell.
Sweden : Social-Democrats
Finland : No idea, but hopefully the True Morons will have faded away by that time
New Zealand : No idea
Portugal : Socialist Part, soon the PSD will be loathed
Ireland : Still Fine Gael ? Or who know, maybe a Labour government. Epic Fail won't come back anytime soon.
Greece : PASOK, I want to bet people won't be stupid enough to hand back power to those who put them in this sh*t.
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Foucaulf
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« Reply #13 on: August 08, 2011, 06:23:21 AM »

If I don't put names down, it's because I believe the current leader of the parties in question will have been kicked out by then.

United States: Barack Obama, D Senate R House
United Kingdom: Labour
Germany: SPD/CDU (Grand coalition)
France: François Hollande, PS Assemblée nationale
Australia: Coalition without control of the Senate
Netherlands: Mark Rutte and his Denmark majority
Denmark: Helle Thoring-Schmidt, A-F minority
Spain: PSOE + regionalists
Canada: Conservative minority
Italy: PD-led coalition, though the party should be renamed by then
Poland: PO with a SLD opposition
Belgium:
Sweden: Håkan Juholt, S minority with MP-V support
Finland: SSP-Kesk-Vihr-RKP coalition (Social Democrats, Centre, Greens, Swedes)
New Zealand: John Key's last mandate (National minority)
Portugal: PS minority
Ireland: Fine Gael coalition, though with whom nobody knows
Greece: PASOK, though party politics will mean little by that point.
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batmacumba
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« Reply #14 on: August 08, 2011, 08:23:49 AM »

Austria: SPÖVP
United States: Barack Obama, D Senate R House
United Kingdom: Labour (can anybody tell me why so many people answered Cameron, with that stable to even-growing labour-led polling?)
Germany: SPD/Greens
France: François Hollande, Cohabitation
Australia: Coalition
Netherlands: Mark Rutte
Denmark: Helle Thoring-Schmidt, A-B-F minority, with ø tolerating it.
Spain: PP
Canada: Conservative minority
Italy: PD-led weak coalition
Poland: PO
Belgium: Still a big mess
Sweden: Social-Democrats-led coalition
Finland: NCP-led coalition. Grue Finns as Jr. Party.
New Zealand: John Key
Portugal: PS minority
Ireland: Fine Gael-Labour coalition.
Greece: PASOK minority. KKE, Synaspismos and La.o.s. growth.
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Insula Dei
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« Reply #15 on: August 08, 2011, 08:40:06 AM »

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UK governments tend to do better in polls as election day approaches. I also think a lot of people here are looking at the job approval of Milliband compared to Cameron's.
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Insula Dei
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« Reply #16 on: August 08, 2011, 09:00:53 AM »
« Edited: August 08, 2011, 09:05:05 AM by belgiansocialist »

Some very bold and overtly specific predictions/guesses/ideas:

Austria: SPÖVP (though, who knows, SPÖ-FPÖ? :shudder:)
US: Obama, Dems control both houses of congress, but likely to lose House and/or Senate in 2016 midterms.
UK: Labour, led by Ed Milliband
Germany: SPD-Greens
France: Hollande or Aubry president
Australia: Julia Gillard, I hope, or maybe Julie Bishop or someone. I do hope it's not Abbot.
Netherlands: PvdA leads centre-left government, not sure whether Cohen leads it, PVV biggest party in parliament
Spain: PP Sad
Portugal: probably PSD (?)
Italy: Another weak government of the left, or maybe the right's gotten back in again already after yet another UDEUR 2008-like failure.
Canada: hopefully an NDP majority or minority
Sweden: Social-Democrats
New Zealand: John Key
Ireland: Enda Kenny
Greece: PASOK

Belgium: Very hard to predict, yet probably the one that's the least likely to see big changes. Yet another large, essentially centrist coalition (like just about every Belgian government ever).
Prime Minister might very well be Di Rupo (or his heir Magnette), as Flanders is low on future Prime Ministers. I could see Steven Vanackere make a good one, but he won't be leader of the CD&V any time soon, nor will they be in a position to lead a government in this decade. Bruno Tobback might be a concession to Flanders if the socialists remain the largest family in parliament, though, say, Johan Vandelanotte might be more acceptable to the rest of the political landscape. The Flemish liberals don't seem like they have that sort of talent or moderate credentials in house, though Alexander de Croo might alwaus be another Verhofstadt. I don't think the N-VA will ever actually participate in a government. Wallonia doesn't have any party appart from the PS capable of delivering an acceptable Prime Minister.
But then, if you'd have told me in 2006 that the N-VA would still exist in 2011 and would even be the largest party in Flanders, I'd have thought you very droll indeed.
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Foucaulf
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« Reply #17 on: August 08, 2011, 09:03:07 AM »

Finland: NCP-led coalition. Grue Finns as Jr. Party.

I believe this is a typo, but it's still very funny.

What is the reasoning for those who think cohabitiation is possible in France? The Quinquennat has synchronized terms for the presidency and the lower house, or do you think the PS is saving its civil war for the end of its mandate?
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #18 on: August 08, 2011, 09:54:08 AM »

Finland: NCP-led coalition. Grue Finns as Jr. Party.

I believe this is a typo, but it's still very funny.

What is the reasoning for those who think cohabitiation is possible in France? The Quinquennat has synchronized terms for the presidency and the lower house, or do you think the PS is saving its civil war for the end of its mandate?

It is not theoretically impossible to see the President-elect's party losing legislative elections, but the odds for this to happen are very unlikely.
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #19 on: August 08, 2011, 10:06:37 AM »

I'm amused by the people that predict with such certainty that a left leaning government will be in power in Italy in 2016. I guess they forgot some of the Italian Left's favorite traditions...
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batmacumba
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« Reply #20 on: August 08, 2011, 10:07:34 AM »

Finland: NCP-led coalition. Grue Finns as Jr. Party.

I believe this is a typo, but it's still very funny.

What is the reasoning for those who think cohabitiation is possible in France? The Quinquennat has synchronized terms for the presidency and the lower house, or do you think the PS is saving its civil war for the end of its mandate?

Deliberated. Smiley If this is against forum policies, no problem,  I'd change it.

For my guess on France: infightings, backlash, EU economy and the trend on maintaining conservative legislators and leftist local administrations, despite national leanings.
I know. These are weak reasons. I'm relying more on my instincts. Not on my wishes, thought.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #21 on: August 08, 2011, 10:21:53 AM »

UK governments tend to do better in polls as election day approaches. I also think a lot of people here are looking at the job approval of Milliband compared to Cameron's.

I presume those are the reasons, yeah. Against that, we don't yet know how low the government parties will sink as they've only been in power for a year, while Miliband's ratings aren't noticeably worse than Cameron's (neither are good). But the reality is that it's impossible to tell, especially now that we have a government that is made up of two parties.
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #22 on: August 08, 2011, 10:23:32 AM »

I will be. Except for the North American ones. North America will have been sunk by then.
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #23 on: August 08, 2011, 10:24:23 AM »

Finland: NCP-led coalition. Grue Finns as Jr. Party.

I believe this is a typo, but it's still very funny.

What is the reasoning for those who think cohabitiation is possible in France? The Quinquennat has synchronized terms for the presidency and the lower house, or do you think the PS is saving its civil war for the end of its mandate?

Deliberated. Smiley If this is against forum policies, no problem,  I'd change it.

For my guess on France: infightings, backlash, EU economy and the trend on maintaining conservative legislators and leftist local administrations, despite national leanings.
I know. These are weak reasons. I'm relying more on my instincts. Not on my wishes, thought.

This is far too recent and conjunctural to be called a trend.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #24 on: August 08, 2011, 10:25:24 AM »

This is far too recent and conjunctural to be called a trend.

Or too far back in the past to be called a trend. You could call it a long-term tendency, maybe. Which is quite different. And not at all predictive.
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