Who'll be in power in the following countries in 2016?

[Antonio the Sixth]

United States : Barack Obama
United Kingdom : No idea, honestly, but I'm gonna bet Cameron is still there unless things get particularly bad
Germany : SPD leading a coalition with the greens. No idea who the Chancelor is
France : Hopefully a socialist, but could be Aubry as well as Hollande
Australia : Labour if the Coalition is still led by Abbot, Coalition otherwise
Netherlands : I'm hopeless for this countyy... Still Mark Rutte
Denmark : Helle Thoring-Schmidt, hopefully
Spain : Sigh... Mariano Rajoy
Canada : I'd give an edge to Stephen Harper, but things could start getting worse for him and we could maybe see the first NDP PM !
Italy : Nichi Vendola ! OK, that's a bit of wishful thinking (even though I'm sure he can win)... but it will most certainly be a left-winger.
Poland : No idea, honestly. Hopefully not a PiS guy...
Belgium : Still no government. Nah, it's definitely impossible to tell.
Sweden : Social-Democrats
Finland : No idea, but hopefully the True Morons will have faded away by that time
New Zealand : No idea
Portugal : Socialist Part, soon the PSD will be loathed
Ireland : Still Fine Gael ? Or who know, maybe a Labour government. Epic Fail won't come back anytime soon.
Greece : PASOK, I want to bet people won't be stupid enough to hand back power to those who put them in this sh*t.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Finland: NCP-led coalition. Grue Finns as Jr. Party.

I believe this is a typo, but it's still very funny.

What is the reasoning for those who think cohabitiation is possible in France? The Quinquennat has synchronized terms for the presidency and the lower house, or do you think the PS is saving its civil war for the end of its mandate?

It is not theoretically impossible to see the President-elect's party losing legislative elections, but the odds for this to happen are very unlikely.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Finland: NCP-led coalition. Grue Finns as Jr. Party.

I believe this is a typo, but it's still very funny.

What is the reasoning for those who think cohabitiation is possible in France? The Quinquennat has synchronized terms for the presidency and the lower house, or do you think the PS is saving its civil war for the end of its mandate?

Deliberated. If this is against forum policies, no problem,  I'd change it.

For my guess on France: infightings, backlash, EU economy and the trend on maintaining conservative legislators and leftist local administrations, despite national leanings.
I know. These are weak reasons. I'm relying more on my instincts. Not on my wishes, thought.

This is far too recent and conjunctural to be called a trend.

[Antonio the Sixth]

I can't really speak for late 4th Republic (I think that's what you're alluding to), but as for modern times, things are quite simple. Since 1977 or at least 1983, French are used to voting against the party in power for local elections. There has been almost no exception to this rule since then. During the Mitterrand years, the right dominated local offices (it held around 80 departements and every region but 2). Now, as the right is in power since 2002, it's not surprising to see the left fare well, even though it's not the only reason why they do so well.

[Antonio the Sixth]

You don't think that the Fourth Republic counts as 'modern times'?

Seen from today, it looks like Antiquity. Most French people would have difficulties to imagine they had that kind of regime just 53 years ago... And of course its political/party systems and voting patterns have nothing in common with today's.

Anyways, I didn't want to express disagreement, just adding some explanations about why we have this situation since 2004. Anti-incumbent vote is a defining factor in French politics, and local elections are kind of "mid-terms" as you said.

[Antonio the Sixth]

But yet, it has not been immediately. It has some delay on turning sides. So it's fair to suppose 60-40% for the left in 2014.

Most likely, yes. But if they take over in 2012, the left will probably start facing important losses at the local level.

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Do they ? I admit I don't pay much attentions to popularity rating of this and that politicial, but as far as I know there is no significant left-wing figure which is unpopular, and while a few right-wingers remain quite popular, they are mostly "mavericks" like Borloo or Rama Yade. Anyways, French Presidential elections are always about personality, so all that matters is how people percieve each candidate.

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So far, PS candidates are still polling at unseen levels (Aubry around 26%, Hollande 29%), and for the first time since 1995 they are ahead of the right. Every 2nd round poll gives the PS candidate over 55% (one had Aubry at 53%, but it hasn't been corroborated yet). Before mid-2010, the PS candidates either had a small lead or were tied with Sarkozy. Sure, there is some back-and-forth, and in these days Sarko has certainly gained ground. But so far polls are still quite bright for the PS.

A cohabitation is not impossible : it might happen in such a political climate, where the entire political class is discredited. My philosophy here is "never say never". However, you must remember that, since Presidential and Legislative elections are syncronized, the latter are often considered by the voters as a formality (hence the awful turnout) : it's all about "giving the President his majority". So it's, at least, highly unlikely for a cohabitation to happen in such situation.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Well, I was stating figures for general politicians, not the presidential race. If the IPSOS Baromètre politique is reliable for the last 2 years, there was this surge, but it is slowly fading (including for Hollande and Aubry, despite Hollande's meteorical surge on April and June, self-explained) and right wing politicians are in a really better figure on a sustained basis. One thing I've noticed was this rates of approval independs the chief of state approval. As I've already said, this is not on my wishlist of political developments. My best wishes you folks are right and election synchronization overrides this.

What figures are you talking about exactly ? As I've said, approval ratings of the politicians in a party are pretty meaningless in France's system. And also, can you link to a few of those approval numbers ? I haven't noticed right-wing politicians being more popular than left-wing ones in average, and if it's true that's an interesting factoid.

[Antonio the Sixth]

As the fall of Sarkozy seemed to not affect it, I've figured out the same lack of political hell transferring could happen on legislative election. The other rightists don't pass me the same level of non-republican appeal that Sarko does. And if this is the reason for his trailing on polls (I'm not having to much information on people's humor about this, my father is the TV5 24 hours guy, not me) more than disenchantment with the government (and, sure if PS is not able to control their own messes), than my spider sense told me there may be cohabitation. Again, hope it's broken. In 98 I almost lost some limbs for predicting France's victory.

Nah, that's not how French politics work. The approval of a few figureheads have 0 influence in legislative elections. I'm not saying a cohabitation won't happen (even though it's very unlikely), but if it happens it won't be for this reason.

Actually, I think a cohabitation between Sarkozy and a PS Assembly is far more likely than the reverse situation. If French people reelect Sarkozy in 2012, it will be by default, not because they like it. They will still consider him to be an evil asshole, but for whatever reason will prefer him to the alternative (PS candidate disqualified by 1st round, or heavily unpopular, or perceived as incompetent). In such scenario, the French would be prone to prevent Sarkozy from keeping implementing his policies, and could very well vote for the PS in the legislative elections.