MI-PPP: Obama ahead by at least 5 points

[Tender Branson]

Do you approve or disapprove of President Barack Obama’s job performance?

Approve .......................................................... 50%
Disapprove...................................................... 46%

...

Barack Obama................................................ 47%
Mitt Romney.................................................... 42%

Barack Obama................................................ 50%
Rick Perry ....................................................... 35%

Barack Obama................................................ 53%
Michele Bachmann ......................................... 37%

Barack Obama................................................ 50%
Herman Cain................................................... 33%

Barack Obama................................................ 54%
Sarah Palin ..................................................... 36%

Barack Obama................................................ 50%
Thad McCotter ................................................ 31%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_MI_727930.pdf

Obama vs. Romney

[King]

inb4 pbrower gloatfest

[Tender Branson]

The difference between the EPIC-MRA poll which had Romney ahead and this one is in the sample.

The EPIC-MRA poll had a 37% Republican 37% Democratic split.

This poll has a 40% Democratic and 30% Republican split.

The 2008 Exit Poll was D+12 and the 2004 Exit Poll was D+5.

While I think the PPP poll could be slightly too optimistic about Obama's chances, I think it's the better one than the EPIC poll.

[Tender Branson]

If the PPP poll was re-weighted to the EPIC sample (37-37-26), Romney would lead Obama 46-44.

[pbrower2a]

No gloating here. Demographics (large African-American vote for a northern state) sinks all Republicans in Michigan in 2012 in statewide elections (look at Senator Stabenow).  President Obama obliterates anyone who can be seen as part of the Hard Right, although President Obama might be in the single digits against Romney, Giuliani, or Huntsman. Michigan is basically Maryland without the money. The auto bailout is appreciated in Michigan.

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If the Republicans nominate Palin,  Perry, or Bachmann  the Republicans lose the state by a gigantic  margin. Thaddeus McCotter will not help Republicans who want to pull Michigan into the GOP camp should someone think of him as a VP candidate.

Obama vs. Romney

Obama vs. Bachmann

Obama vs. Palin

Obama vs. Perry

Favorite Sons:


Obama vs. local favorite sons

DeMint -- South Carolina
Santorum -- Pennsylvania
Romney -- Michigan and New Hampshire
Pawlenty -- Minnesota
Thune -- South Dakota
Gingrich -- Georgia
Christie -- New Jersey
Bachmann -- Minnesota (but I am showing her in Iowa instead because of Pawlenty)
Palin -- Arizona (she is allegedly moving there) and Alaska
Perry -- Texas
Cain -- Georgia (but I will show him in North Carolina)
Ron Paul -- Texas (but I will show him in Oklahoma for this purpose
Daniels -- Indiana (if the state is ever polled)  
Johnson -- New Mexico
McCotter -- Michigan (but I will show him in Ohio for this purpose)
Huntsman -- Utah (but I show him in Idaho)
Roemer -- Louisiana

[pbrower2a]

If the PPP poll was re-weighted to the EPIC sample (37-37-26), Romney would lead Obama 46-44.

The Democrats are going to have a well-funded GOTV drive in Michigan in 2012, probably intended as much to win back some House seats lost in 2010 as anything. The Michigan electorate was probably close to the EPIC poll in 2010, but that looks unlikely to recur in 2012.

This is consistent with the recent Quinnipiac poll in Ohio, where President Obama had a lead on everyone and Senator  Sherrod Brown looked to have a strong chance of winning  re-election.

[Bull Moose Base]

pbrower, I'll save you the trouble.  Of actual candidates who are running, only two top Obama in their home state: Ron Paul and Jon Huntsman.  Until either one ever tops a statewide primary poll, let's just put it this way:

There is no plausible GOP nominee leading Obama in his or her home state.

[Ben Romney]

pbrower you forgot NC in your Perry/Obama map
Perry leads Hussein in the last poll there

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

pbrower you forgot NC in your Perry/Obama map
Perry leads Hussein in the last poll there

1. GOP poll.
2. Seriously? Ignored (along with CARLHAYDEN and that one crazy Arkansan)

[pbrower2a]

pbrower, I'll save you the trouble.  Of actual candidates who are running, only two top Obama in their home state: Ron Paul and Jon Huntsman.  Until either one ever tops a statewide primary poll, let's just put it this way:

There is no plausible GOP nominee leading Obama in his or her home state.

But one candidate comes in after another. Huckabee seems to do about as well as anyone else, yet he projects to do little better than McCain did and chooses to broadcast on FoX Propaganda and Clear Channel. Don Quixote Trump enters the fray, makes a fool of himself, and leaves. There's talk of Mitch Daniels, James DeMint, and John Thune. Gingrich appears as a potential candidate and is exposed for his marital history and his huge credit accounts at Tiffany's. Tim Pawlenty and shows himself to have "plenty of nothin'" and drops off the radar. Ron Paul has fantastic support among the Ayn Rand cult that doesn't have enough votes to deliver in the primaries. Sarah Palin  doesn't have a clue, and Michelle Bachmann scares the Hell out of anyone who has Joseph R. McCarthy as a villain. Herman Cain shows why people with no political experience or substantial experience with government are non-starters in the primaries. If Ross Perot couldn't be elected President despite being more politically astute and running as a moderate, then what career entrepreneur can? Thaddeus McCotter announces his entrance, and shows that he could more wisely run for a Safe R seat in Congress.  

I don't know which state is Mitt Romney's home.

Senators Thune and DeMint have no plausibility as national candidates. Thune doesn't know how to relate to states that, unlike South Dakota, have high-cost services and high-cost infrastructure. James DeMint would be a poor cultural match outside the South.  Christie is losing popularity quickly in New Jersey, and his abrasive personality is unlikely to convince people that he could get along with Congress -- even a Republican-majority Congress. Rick Santorum acts as if the political climate is the same as it was in 2000 and seems to have learned little from his defeat in 2006.

I see candidates against whom Obama would have replays parallel to the elections of 1956, 1964,  and either 1972 or 1984 (basically the same thing).  This is before the President does any campaigning.  

Most Presidential election years have few candidates. This one is Barack Obama and a bunch of mediocrities and worse. I am satisfied that John Thune would win South Dakota and that James DeMint would win South Carolina -- not that either has much viability as a national candidate.

Maybe that map can be moved.  

[pbrower2a]

pbrower you forgot NC in your Perry/Obama map
Perry leads Hussein in the last poll there

The late King Hussein of Jordan (decent fellow, really) isn't running against President Obama. Saddam Hussein? Since when did HELL become a state of the US?

(OK -- Texas in 1845 and Arizona in 1912, but that is on climatic criteria.  Satan Hussein dwells in neither).

[Joe Republic]

I don't know which state is Mitt Romney's home.

His two main homes are in Wolfeboro, NH, and La Jolla, CA, but he maintains his voting registration in Belmont, MA.

[m4567]

I don't think Romney can win Massachusetts. Has anyone ever been elected president, without winning his home state? Al Gore amost did.

[Marston]

Sounds about right to me.  McCotter's outperforming my expectations, though. I was expecting 29%. Tops.

 

[pbrower2a]

I don't think Romney can win Massachusetts. Has anyone ever been elected president, without winning his home state? Al Gore almost did.

Maybe if

1. One loses touch with the home state. The state changes and the politician doesn't but neither does enough of the country.

2. The state that one is from is electorally small and isolated.

3. One has political strengths more valuable outside one's region than inside it.

Possible circumstance in 2012: Michelle Bachmann (Reactionary Nutcase, Minnesota) is much out of touch with Minnesota, a state that Republicans have won in a Presidential election only in 1972 (it was the 49th-best state for Richard Nixon, who still won the state). Minnesota would be one of her worst states, but Republicans have never been in the situation in which they needed to win Minnesota for a very long time. Aside from 1972, Minnesota hasn't gone R in a Presidential election  except in years when the Democrats got almost all of their electoral votes in the South for more than 90 years. It last went for a Republican loser in 1916. 2016, maybe? Maybe the nominee will be Senator Amy Klobuchar, a really-good match for Minnesota.

As I can't yet rule out a return to the 2007-2009 economic meltdown, a personal scandal involving the President, or the sudden revival of the Religious Right, I can't fully rule out the defeat of President Obama by Michelle Bachmann with a political map much like either 2000 or 2004. Minnesota is not a swing state and has not been for a very long time.         

[Gustaf]

I don't think Romney can win Massachusetts. Has anyone ever been elected president, without winning his home state? Al Gore amost did.

Depends on how you count - Nixon in 1968 and Wilson in 1916 are potential.

[Brittain33]

Romney isn't from Massachusetts originally and moved to NH full-time some years ago. I don't consider it his home state for "neener neener" purposes even though he actually tried to be a governor in his first two years.

[The Professor]

The maximum number of home states a candidate is permitted is 3. Mitt Romney is currently at 4 (Massachusetts, New Hampshire, Utah and Michigan). Romney has to give up one or else.

[memphis]

I don't think Romney can win Massachusetts. Has anyone ever been elected president, without winning his home state? Al Gore amost did.

Depends on how you count - Nixon in 1968 and Wilson in 1916 are potential.

Also Polk in 1844. TN has no love for native sons.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

The maximum number of home states a candidate is permitted is 3. Mitt Romney is currently at 4 (Massachusetts, New Hampshire, Utah and Michigan). Romney has to give up one or else.

George HW Bush had a bunch, too. Of course he got 3rd place in Maine in 1992, which was pretty embarrassing.

Although not as embarrassing as George W Bush losing his birth city (New Haven, CT) by well over 60 points.