US might have entered recession in April 2011

[Mr.Phips]

March 2011 was when the unemployment rate bottomed at 8.8%.  Since then it has risen four straight months to 9.2%. 

The unemployment rate has never increased for four straight months unless we were in a recession or going into one. 

[phk]

Well... we'll see it in Obama's poll numbers. Especially against Romney.

[J. J.]

The double dip, that I was expecting.

[memphis]

Not surprising with oil as high as it is. That's what always destroys our economy.

[Del Tachi]

If a debt ceiling plan passes (and that's a big "if" at this point) then the renewed confidence in  American futures will lead to a short rally on Wall Street.  That might be enough to delay a "double-dip" for a month or two, at the most.

Unemployment is not a good judge of whether we are in "recession".  What do GDP growth rates look like--as compared to this time last year? 

[Sam Spade]

Did you see my post a few months ago?  We have a sub-GDP growth quarter coming in either 4th Q 2011 or 1st Q 2012, according to my estimation.  Not to mention that we either deal with the account deficit issue and take the (at minimum) 10%-15% GDP decline now or be destroyed 5-10 years down the road, at latest.

[Iosif]

The double dip, that I was expecting.

Guess Mensa doesn't teach sentence construction, huh?

[J. J.]

The double dip, that I was expecting.

Guess Mensa doesn't teach sentence construction, huh?

Guess you couldn't get it due to being unable to understand the application instructions, huh?

[Ban my account ffs!]

The double dip, that I was expecting.

Guess Mensa doesn't teach sentence construction, huh?

Guess you couldn't get it due to being unable to understand the application instructions, huh?

Being obsessed with credentials like that, kinda like having a ton of piercings or wearing a ton of body jewelry, is an indication of lack of intelligence... not an abundance of.

[phk]

The US probably didn't enter a recession in April 2011.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

You mean we had found our way out of the recession? News to my sorry about-to-lose-my-job-again ass.

[Person Man]

The US probably didn't enter a recession in April 2011.

It will soon enough. Something about crybabies, tea and an engineered sovreign debt crisis in a country that posesses approxamately 22% of the GGP.

[J. J.]

The double dip, that I was expecting.

Guess Mensa doesn't teach sentence construction, huh?

Guess you couldn't get it due to being unable to understand the application instructions, huh?

Being obsessed with credentials like that, kinda like having a ton of piercings or wearing a ton of body jewelry, is an indication of lack of intelligence... not an abundance of.

I'm not the guy who keeps bringing it up.  Some people are insecure, like Hawkeye of old.

I don't have the heart to tell him I'm in Intertel, too.  Well, at least I don't make the Triple Nine cut.

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

I disagree with this thread.  private sector job growth during this recovery matches the growth of the last recovery (2001-2007).  There is no recession red light flashing in the jobs numbers.



now, a new crisis could throw us back into recession, but we didnt enter a new one last April...besides, no one believed the 8.8% number 4 months ago.

[pinqy]

March 2011 was when the unemployment rate bottomed at 8.8%.  Since then it has risen four straight months to 9.2%. 

3 straight months.  We won't know until next week when the July data is released if it was 4.

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Never is a long time:
Jun-59: 5.0%
Jul-59: 5.1%
Aug-59: 5.2%
Sep-59: 5.5%
Oct-59: 5.7%
Nov-59: 5.8%

Now, this was betweeen the recessions of 1958 and 1960, but there was no recession at the time, but 5 months of rising unemployment.

[The Vorlon]

March 2011 was when the unemployment rate bottomed at 8.8%.  Since then it has risen four straight months to 9.2%. 

The unemployment rate has never increased for four straight months unless we were in a recession or going into one. 

The "topline" unemployment number is a bit flakey right now.

When it "dropped" to 8.8%, it didn't "really" drop, the number of discouraged workers simply fell.

Conversely, as folks exhaust their savings, unemployment benefits, etc, increasing numbers of formerly discouraged workers are being forced back into the pool, hence the rise in the official rate.

In terms of the actual state of the economy, total workforce participation is better index.

[Sam Spade]

Did you see my post a few months ago?  We have a sub-GDP growth quarter coming in either 4th Q 2011 or 1st Q 2012, according to my estimation.  Not to mention that we either deal with the account deficit issue and take the (at minimum) 10%-15% GDP decline now or be destroyed 5-10 years down the road, at latest.

Oh, really?  And what economic models are you privy to that none of us have access to?

None.  I just read the economic reports thoroughly, and then formulate my opinion (i.e. my estimation) based on those facts.