FL-Sunshine State News/Susquehanna (R): Romney leads Obama by 4

[Tender Branson]

Do you approve or disapprove of the job Barack Obama is doing as President?

38% Approve
54% Disapprove

Thinking way ahead to the next election for President in 2012. If the general election for President were being held today and the candidates were Barack Obama, the Democratic candidate and Mitt Romney, the Republican candidate, for whom would you vote?

46% Romney
42% Obama
  2% Refused
10% Undecided

Are you registered to vote as a Republican, a Democrat, an Independent or something else?

42% Democrat
42% Republican
16% Independent

http://www.sunshinestatenews.com/story/us-jobless-numbers-dragging-barack-obama-down-florida

Obama vs. Romney:

[Gustaf]

"Thinking way ahead"?

[Heimdal]

This must be a flawed poll.

Surely Governor Scott would ensure the Democrats victory in Florida come 2012.

[Bull Moose Base]

Unsarcastically, this is a garbage poll. Even in the state that found Casey not guilty, Obama being 16 underwater isn't credible.  On top of that, read the Murdochy article it's attached to.  Less credible than the recent Tennessee poll.

[pbrower2a]

This must be a flawed poll.

Surely Governor Scott would ensure the Democrats victory in Florida come 2012.

It comes with very biased analysis. It focuses upon unemployment -- the President's obvious weak spot, something for which he is not culpable. It is also far out of line for the US as a whole. Such results would suggest that the President has a national approval around 40-43%, which would be necessary for this poll to be valid. 

Junk poll.

[krazen1211]

And here comes the denial brigade.

These people polled Scott and Sink as even shortly before election day, underestimating Scott of course.

[tmthforu94]

-16 approval may be a slight stretch, but I certainly wouldn't call this a junk poll. I don't see what's so weird about Romney leading by 4 in a swing state, though I could understand why pbrower won't post it, since he hates any poll that makes Obama look bad.

[pbrower2a]

-16 approval may be a slight stretch, but I certainly wouldn't call this a junk poll. I don't see what's so weird about Romney leading by 4 in a swing state, though I could understand why pbrower won't post it, since he hates any poll that makes Obama look bad.

This is the sort of approval rating one would expect in Alabama or Oklahoma. This is far below any recent nationwide poll. Florida is about R+2, and I don't see any reason to believe that the President's approval is 40% nationwide. Just check the recent Rasmussen polls.

Florida gets polled often -- PPP and Quinnipiac -- so hold off on writing off Florida as a likely Obama hold in 2012. I might have believed something like 43-54. 

[Bull Moose Base]

And here comes the denial brigade.

These people polled Scott and Sink as even shortly before election day, underestimating Scott of course.

The defense of the poll is that this same pollster got another election wrong?

-16 approval may be a slight stretch, but I certainly wouldn't call this a junk poll. I don't see what's so weird about Romney leading by 4 in a swing state, though I could understand why pbrower won't post it, since he hates any poll that makes Obama look bad.

Romney with a slight lead on Obama isn't implausible.  Since it's paired with an approval rating no other credible pollster has found, it's not serious.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

Given Obama's approvals in nationwide polls being something like 45-47, this seems way too heavily Republican.

[memphis]

Too bad for the GOP Romney won't be the nominee. It's pretty obvious at this point that they're going to pick a nutter. It may not be the current flavor of the week, but the GOP is going down the Goldwater/McGovern route.

[krazen1211]

And here comes the denial brigade.

These people polled Scott and Sink as even shortly before election day, underestimating Scott of course.

The defense of the poll is that this same pollster got another election wrong?

-16 approval may be a slight stretch, but I certainly wouldn't call this a junk poll. I don't see what's so weird about Romney leading by 4 in a swing state, though I could understand why pbrower won't post it, since he hates any poll that makes Obama look bad.

Romney with a slight lead on Obama isn't implausible.  Since it's paired with an approval rating no other credible pollster has found, it's not serious.

They were in the +- 1 point range from everyone else, and if anything, Democrat favored. But believe what you wish.

It's not like unemployment is low in Florida.

[tmthforu94]

-16 approval may be a slight stretch, but I certainly wouldn't call this a junk poll. I don't see what's so weird about Romney leading by 4 in a swing state, though I could understand why pbrower won't post it, since he hates any poll that makes Obama look bad.

This is the sort of approval rating one would expect in Alabama or Oklahoma. This is far below any recent nationwide poll. Florida is about R+2, and I don't see any reason to believe that the President's approval is 40% nationwide. Just check the recent Rasmussen polls.

You wouldn't expect Obama to have strong approvals in Tennessee either, yet you include a poll with Obama leading there. You have no problem counting questionable polls that have Obama leading - it's the ones he's losing in you refuse to count.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

-16 approval may be a slight stretch, but I certainly wouldn't call this a junk poll. I don't see what's so weird about Romney leading by 4 in a swing state, though I could understand why pbrower won't post it, since he hates any poll that makes Obama look bad.

This is the sort of approval rating one would expect in Alabama or Oklahoma. This is far below any recent nationwide poll. Florida is about R+2, and I don't see any reason to believe that the President's approval is 40% nationwide. Just check the recent Rasmussen polls.

You wouldn't expect Obama to have strong approvals in Tennessee either, yet you include a poll with Obama leading there. You have no problem counting questionable polls that have Obama leading - it's the ones he's losing in you refuse to count.

I agree with tmth; both of these polls are ignorable, just like Zogby and Rasmussen.

[Gustaf]

The top-line seems reasonable. Florida was +5 for GOP last time around. If that has stayed the same this would imply a 1% lead for Obama nationwide. Obama probably leads by a bit more nationally, but then again I'd guess (wildly, I know) that Florida might have drifted a point or so towards the GOP. Throw in MoE and the polls seems allright. The approval ratings is a different matter of course and might well be off.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

Why are people arguing with pblower? He included a junk uni poll showing Obama ahead in Tennessee for god's sake.

[pbrower2a]

Why are people arguing with pblower? He included a junk uni poll showing Obama ahead in Tennessee for god's sake.

This is why I reject that poll:

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/obama_approval_index_history

Rasmussen is an R-leading pollster to begin with.

Illustrative today:

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[tmthforu94]

Why are people arguing with pblower? He included a junk uni poll showing Obama ahead in Tennessee for god's sake.

This is why I reject that poll:

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/obama_approval_index_history

Rasmussen is an R-leading pollster to begin with.

Well then judging by that, not only is Florida too anti-Obama, but Tennessee, a state comfortably won by McCain in 2008, is clearly too Obama friendly. The only way I could find reason in you rejecting this poll is if you also throw out that junk university poll from Tennessee.

[Tender Branson]

Why are people arguing with pblower? He included a junk uni poll showing Obama ahead in Tennessee for god's sake.

This is why I reject that poll:

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/obama_approval_index_history

Rasmussen is an R-leading pollster to begin with.

Problem just is that this poll is not from Rasmussen.

[Bull Moose Base]

Why are people arguing with pblower? He included a junk uni poll showing Obama ahead in Tennessee for god's sake.

This is why I reject that poll:

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/obama_approval_index_history

Rasmussen is an R-leading pollster to begin with.

Well then judging by that, not only is Florida too anti-Obama, but Tennessee, a state comfortably won by McCain in 2008, is clearly too Obama friendly. The only way I could find reason in you rejecting this poll is if you also throw out that junk university poll from Tennessee.

Agree that both deserve to be ignored.

[pbrower2a]

This is from that "junk" poll.

Obama Approval Rating in Tennessee:

44% Approve
50% Disapprove

http://www.tennessean.com/article/20110619/NEWS/306190050/Obama-holds-lead-over-GOP-hopefuls-Tennessee

Sure, John McCain won the state 57-42.  Is a 44% approval rating that far off in a state in which the current President won only 41.79% of the vote? It is either within the margin of error or it suggests some movement in favor of the President.

I have no doubt that Mike Huckabee would win this state if he were the Republican nominee. Huckabee is an excellent match for neighboring Arkansas, a state that generally votes with Tennessee and has similar demographics.

John McCain was a very good  match for Tennessee in 2008. His political pedigree is very Southern, and he is a military hero. Such matters greatly in deciding who can win what states. But are current Republican nominees as good matches for Tennessee? Could President Obama be gaining some in places that he lost badly (not that that will be enough to win a state like Tennessee)?

The President has a slightly-higher approval rating, last shown, in Georgia.

As I have said as succinctly as possible,

"Incumbents either run on their records and win or run from their records and lose".

Could it be that President Obama has addressed some of the misgivings that many Southern white voters had of him? In 2008 that mattered greatly in Tennessee. In 2012 that might not matter so much.  But if the President is doing badly in Tennessee at this point, then shouldn't some Republican be running away with the state? Sure it is a surprise, but so is the recent 44% approval for the President in Pennsylvania.

The Sunshine State News poll has  suspect characteristics, most notably editorial bias that drips. The next day (today as I write this) it showed a 27% approve/58% disapprove split for Governor Rick Scott and sugarcoated it as 'not that bad'. But President Obama, with an approval rating in the thirties, is "doomed".     

[pbrower2a]

Oh, the PPP poll for North Carolina, with a 45-51 split in approval for President Obama doesn't so much repudiate the Tennessee poll as show it obsolete.   

[pbrower2a]

Here is the editorial bias:  Start with the title:

U.S. Jobless Numbers Dragging Obama Down in Florida

A conclusion with no supporting evidence in the poll. Sure, the US economy is dreadful, but any time that one seeks to make such a conclusion based on polling data, maybe one had better ask the question

"On matters other than the economy, do you APPROVE or DISAPPROVE of the President's performance?"

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Such was intended to be written as post-poll analysis.

Now take a look at this headline the next day:

For Rick Scott, a Tough Road to Reform

http://www.sunshinestatenews.com/story/gov-rick-scott-tough-road-reform

Reform? Reform what?

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Doctor Pangloss, I presume? A rattlesnake bite isn't necessarily lethal, either, but consequences may require an amputation.

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Let's see: 27% approve, 58% disapprove. The same pollster was writing off President Obama the previous day, yet says that all that Rick Scott needs to do is to make Floridians bite the bullet harder so that he can rescue the state.

If he were the President of Florida instead of Governor, he would need to watch his back in the event that disgruntled military officers had their own political solutions -- solutions that don't include him.

Floridians would surely prefer to amputate Governor Rick Scott to amputating President Barack Obama from their political life.

[krazen1211]

Kenric Ward is not a pollster. He is a columnist. He does not work for VSS. Your conclusions are dreadfully wrong.

[Gustaf]

This is from that "junk" poll.

Obama Approval Rating in Tennessee:

44% Approve
50% Disapprove

http://www.tennessean.com/article/20110619/NEWS/306190050/Obama-holds-lead-over-GOP-hopefuls-Tennessee

Sure, John McCain won the state 57-42.  Is a 44% approval rating that far off in a state in which the current President won only 41.79% of the vote? It is either within the margin of error or it suggests some movement in favor of the President.

I have no doubt that Mike Huckabee would win this state if he were the Republican nominee. Huckabee is an excellent match for neighboring Arkansas, a state that generally votes with Tennessee and has similar demographics.

John McCain was a very good  match for Tennessee in 2008. His political pedigree is very Southern, and he is a military hero. Such matters greatly in deciding who can win what states. But are current Republican nominees as good matches for Tennessee? Could President Obama be gaining some in places that he lost badly (not that that will be enough to win a state like Tennessee)?

The President has a slightly-higher approval rating, last shown, in Georgia.

As I have said as succinctly as possible,

"Incumbents either run on their records and win or run from their records and lose".

Could it be that President Obama has addressed some of the misgivings that many Southern white voters had of him? In 2008 that mattered greatly in Tennessee. In 2012 that might not matter so much.  But if the President is doing badly in Tennessee at this point, then shouldn't some Republican be running away with the state? Sure it is a surprise, but so is the recent 44% approval for the President in Pennsylvania.

The Sunshine State News poll has  suspect characteristics, most notably editorial bias that drips. The next day (today as I write this) it showed a 27% approve/58% disapprove split for Governor Rick Scott and sugarcoated it as 'not that bad'. But President Obama, with an approval rating in the thirties, is "doomed".     

What happened to the +6 rule?