UT-PPP: Matheson competitive

[King]

DINOs are closer what the ideal Republican Party should be.  We should always encourage having DINOs instead of halfwits like Chaffetz.

As long as Dem hacks don't count on him as part of some lofty 60 seat progressive plan for America like they did with the DINOs in 2008 and just use him for important committee work, he'll work out just fine.

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

2008 was a terrible year for Republicans and McCain still carried Utah by 28 points. 2012 will be a better year for them. While the poll is encouraging, conventional wisdom dictates otherwise. As someone already said on here, IT's UTAH. Matheson, although a DINO and quite uninspiring, is our best candidate, but even against a crazy teabagger Republican and even if a crazy like Bachmann/Santorum/Perry wins the nomination, I still don't see Matheson winning.

Not against Bachmann or Perry.

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

I like these "Even if Bachmann/Santorum/Perry/Palin win the nomination..." comments. I know you guys are admitting that they'd still win the state but does anyone really believe they'd do noticeably worse than McCain or Bush?

This would essentially be a repeat of the 2004 Oklahoma Senate race: everyone thinks it could be competitive then it turns into a cakewalk for the Republican nominee partly because of the strength at the top of the ticket.

Yeah any of those candidates would do noticeably worse than McCain, especially with a protracted nomination battle against Romney involving subtle attacks on his Mormonism. The state is trending towards the Democrats thanks to SLC's growth and the political culture of the state is slowly changing in those enclaves.

[Keystone Phil]

I like these "Even if Bachmann/Santorum/Perry/Palin win the nomination..." comments. I know you guys are admitting that they'd still win the state but does anyone really believe they'd do noticeably worse than McCain or Bush?

This would essentially be a repeat of the 2004 Oklahoma Senate race: everyone thinks it could be competitive then it turns into a cakewalk for the Republican nominee partly because of the strength at the top of the ticket.

Yeah any of those candidates would do noticeably worse than McCain, especially with a protracted nomination battle against Romney involving subtle attacks on his Mormonism. The state is trending towards the Democrats thanks to SLC's growth and the political culture of the state is slowly changing in those enclaves.

Uh...you're aware that Romney ran and was attacked in 2008, right? McCain wasn't damaged by that.

What's noticeably worse than McCain's 63% in 2008? Don't tell me you think the eventual nominee would slip into the mid 50s...

[Nichlemn]

Since I said the same about Scott Brown, I'm going to be consistent: coattails are overrated. That's not to say I think Matheson is the favourite, but nor do I think he's doomed coz it's UTAH.

One difference between this and MA, however, is that according to Nate Silver, MA has quite a lot of swing voters despite not being a swing state. Utah, on the other hand, has a very large Republican base.

[HST1948]

Nothing would make me happier than to see Chaffetz go down in defeat, in Utah of all places. But Matheson... not too inspiring.

Dude, it's UTAH!!

Cool, a Democratic senator that we can all complain about a year or two down the road.

I was just about to post these exact words lol.

Not me. Any time I feel like complaining I would remember two words:

"Jason Chaffetz"

Oh I'm not complaining. A DINO is far better than a TEA Partier any day, and is better than a republican because it helps keep a majority. I'm just saying during the election every democrat and their mother will be drooling over Matheson and the minute he breaks ranks with the party (see Joe Manchin), every liberal will be complaining about him.   

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

I like these "Even if Bachmann/Santorum/Perry/Palin win the nomination..." comments. I know you guys are admitting that they'd still win the state but does anyone really believe they'd do noticeably worse than McCain or Bush?

This would essentially be a repeat of the 2004 Oklahoma Senate race: everyone thinks it could be competitive then it turns into a cakewalk for the Republican nominee partly because of the strength at the top of the ticket.

Yeah any of those candidates would do noticeably worse than McCain, especially with a protracted nomination battle against Romney involving subtle attacks on his Mormonism. The state is trending towards the Democrats thanks to SLC's growth and the political culture of the state is slowly changing in those enclaves.

Uh...you're aware that Romney ran and was attacked in 2008, right? McCain wasn't damaged by that.

What's noticeably worse than McCain's 63% in 2008? Don't tell me you think the eventual nominee would slip into the mid 50s...

The primary process between McCain and Romney wasn't very drawn out. It wasn't that confrontational. If someone besides Romney is nominated, the primaries will get brutal for obvious reasons and considering who Romney's two main opponents are: Perry and Bachmann, who are banking on an Evangelical vote and happen to be Evangelicals themselves, they'll definitely use Romney's religion against him. The McCain campaign never had any anti-Mormon literature. I expect either Bachmann or Perry too. 

To me, anything is noticeably worse than 63%. 62% is noticeably worse than 63%. Bachmann would definitely slip into the 50s, she'd struggle to break 40% nationwide once her dirty laundry is aired by the media. I could see her having a McCain-esque result if she's lucky but she'd probably still do poorly in Utah.

[tmthforu94]

If Matheson does decide to get in the race, it'll probably be tight through the 2012 summer and into the General Election, with someone not named Matheson pulling away in mid-September and winning by around 10 points. The only way Matheson could possibly win this race is if Hatch runs as an Independent, Romney or Huntsman aren't the GOP nominee, and the national environment for Democrats significantly improve so they can actually play on the offensive some in Senate races.

That being said, I think Matheson would just be wasting his time running.

[DrScholl]

If Matheson doesn't get a good option for a House seat, he has zero to lose running for Senate.

[tmthforu94]

If Matheson doesn't get a good option for a House seat, he has zero to lose running for Senate.

I mean, it would be a waste of time and finances.

[HAnnA MArin County]

If Matheson doesn't get a good option for a House seat, he has zero to lose running for Senate.

I mean, it would be a waste of time and finances.

Politicians often aren't concerned with/don't care about wasting those two things.

[Keystone Phil]

The McCain campaign never had any anti-Mormon literature. I expect either Bachmann or Perry too.

Stop posting. 

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Incredibly asinine. Again, stop posting.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Chaffetz narrowly leads in the primary:

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[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

If Matheson doesn't get a good option for a House seat, he has zero to lose running for Senate.

The most Democratic House seat in Utah, even if it's not very Democratic, will certainly be more Democratic-friendly than an at-large U.S. Senate seat.

[Miles]

If Matheson doesn't get a good option for a House seat, he has zero to lose running for Senate.

The most Democratic House seat in Utah, even if it's not very Democratic, will certainly be more Democratic-friendly than an at-large U.S. Senate seat.

I agree. Matheson's district is still 5 PVI points less Republican than the state as whole. Still, he's won it with many votes to spare (in most years)...

Wow, he's even ahead of Hatch. Chaffetz makes sense, but I thought Hatch was still pretty popular (among indies and non-crazy Republicans at least).

Independents disapprove of Hatch 27/60 and he only gets 67% of Republicans.

[DrScholl]

The most Democratic House seat in Utah, even if it's not very Democratic, will certainly be more Democratic-friendly than an at-large U.S. Senate seat.

He's not going to have the same district as before, some of the maps under consideration are clearly drawn to make sure that he can't win.

[minionofmidas]

If Matheson doesn't get a good option for a House seat, he has zero to lose running for Senate.

The most Democratic House seat in Utah, even if it's not very Democratic, will certainly be more Democratic-friendly than an at-large U.S. Senate seat.

It is conceivable that he'd perceive the opposition in the Senate race as sufficiently weaker to even that out.
Would probably require the new House district to be purpose-drawn for some high profile candidate. Or all the House districts he could conceivably run in, even.

[Nichlemn]

The most Democratic House seat in Utah, even if it's not very Democratic, will certainly be more Democratic-friendly than an at-large U.S. Senate seat.

He's not going to have the same district as before, some of the maps under consideration are clearly drawn to make sure that he can't win.

The point is that it's mathematically impossible to have every district more Republican than the state as a whole.

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

The McCain campaign never had any anti-Mormon literature. I expect either Bachmann or Perry too.

Stop posting.  

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Incredibly asinine. Again, stop posting.

Here are you some poll results for you. If you choose to discount them because they don't fit your narrow view of reality, so be it. Keep in mind that I know the Mormon voter really well because many of my close friends are Mormons. I understand this community. Have you even met a Mormon before?

PPP:
Barack Obama 35%
Michele Bachmann 49%
Undecided 16%

Barack Obama 34%
Tim Pawlenty 45%
Undecided 20%

Great input, by the way. I really loved your insightful thoughts on Utah's demographics. Now that I've been told how Keystone Phil views Utah, I know how I should view Utah. You're a genius and a real pal.

[Keystone Phil]

The McCain campaign never had any anti-Mormon literature. I expect either Bachmann or Perry too.

Stop posting.  

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Incredibly asinine. Again, stop posting.

Here are you some poll results for you. If you chose to discount them because they don't fit your narrow view of reality, so be it. Keep in mind that I know the Mormon voter really well because many of my close friends are Mormons. I understand this community. Have you even met a Mormon before?
PPP:
Barack Obama 35%
Michele Bachmann 49%
Undecided 16%

Barack Obama 34%
Tim Pawlenty 45%
Undecided 20%

Great input, by the way. I really loved your insightful thoughts on Utah's demographics. Now that I've been told how Keystone Phil views Utah, I know how I should view Utah. You're a genius and a real pal.

...

I ask this seriously: was that post supposed to be parody?

In case it was for real, I'm sure the undecided voters in Utah are going to break quite clearly one way, pal.

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

The McCain campaign never had any anti-Mormon literature. I expect either Bachmann or Perry too.

Stop posting.  

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Incredibly asinine. Again, stop posting.

Here are you some poll results for you. If you chose to discount them because they don't fit your narrow view of reality, so be it. Keep in mind that I know the Mormon voter really well because many of my close friends are Mormons. I understand this community. Have you even met a Mormon before?
PPP:
Barack Obama 35%
Michele Bachmann 49%
Undecided 16%

Barack Obama 34%
Tim Pawlenty 45%
Undecided 20%

Great input, by the way. I really loved your insightful thoughts on Utah's demographics. Now that I've been told how Keystone Phil views Utah, I know how I should view Utah. You're a genius and a real pal.

...

I ask this seriously: was that post supposed to be parody?

In case it was for real, I'm sure the undecided voters in Utah are going to break quite clearly one way, pal.

I'm sure they will and understand that, the point I was trying make was that Bachmann, Pawlenty and crew clearly have problems connecting to Mormon voters. While I expect the vast majority of undecideds to move into the Republican candidate's column, even 20% of undecideds breaking for Obama would have him doing better than McCain.

Why are you such of a dick?

[Keystone Phil]

Why are you such of a dick?

One of the great mysteries of life.

[Mehmentum]

Politicians are risk taking creatures, I suspect Matheson will go for it.

[TheGlobalizer]

Poor timing with Big O at the top of the ticket.

I agree that coattails are overrated but reverse coattails can be a bitch.

[JacobNC]

Obama's coattails certainly did not hurt him in 2008... he won with 64% in a district that is 5 points less Republican than the whole state.  He also did very well in rural areas... winning all but two rural counties that are located in his district.

Also, in a race between Matheson and Chaffetz, Matheson may end up being perceived as the most pro-Utah candidate.  For one thing, Chaffetz is an extremist even by Utah standards.  Matheson is more of a populist.  Matheson has lived in Utah his whole life, and has always been a Mormon.  Chaffetz is an ex-Californian Jewish Democrat.