States most likely to flip to the Republicans?

[Kevin]

Which states are most likely to flip to the Republicans should a generic mainstream challenger like Romney or Perry be nominated in 2012?

I think the following are most likely to flip:

Indiana, North Carolina, Florida, Virginia, New Hampshire, Ohio, Iowa, and Pennsylvania

I very much believe that Indiana and North Carolina will definitely switch to the Republicans in 2012, given how strongly they voted Republican in elections prior to 2008, how 2008 was a Democratic landslide in a very good year for the party, and how close the margins in those states were for Obama. Combined with other state and local factors like a unpopular Democratic Governor in NC and a popular outgoing Republican Governor in IN combined with a lack of strong Democratic opposition in that state.

Florida for some of the reasons mentioned above and Obama's record so far is the next most likely state to go Republican after the first two. Virginia I also think has a high probilty for much of the same reasons. As well as the fact that I live here(in NOVA) and I can tell you many folks who voted for Obama and the Democrats in 2008 are very disappointed in him. Also, since 2008 there has been a strong electoral swing against the Democrats(2009 and 2010).

Polling and results over the past two years of the Democrats vs. Republicans in New Hampshire has me hopeful. Especially given the strong swing to the GOP in 2010. Same case in Ohio, but that is somewhat offset by the fact that the state Republicans aren't too popular at the moment.

IA and PA look promising given Obama's mediocre approvals in those states and the results for the Democrats in 2010 midterms. However, given the nature of these states where the Republicans put alot of effort into them only to lose them in the end, I'm not getting my hopes up.

Any opinions?




  

 

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

In order, with Romney as the nominee:

Indiana
North Carolina
New Hampshire
Florida
Nevada
Ohio
Colorado
Virginia
Michigan
Iowa
Pennsylvania
New Mexico
Wisconsin
Maine
Minnesota
Oregon
New Jersey
Washington
Connecticut
Massachusetts
California
Illinois
Rhode Island
New York
Vermont
Hawaii
DC

[Keystone Phil]

Indiana, North Carolina, Florida, Ohio, Virginia, New Hampshire and Pennsylvania

[sg0508]

Indiana, North Carolina, Florida, Ohio, Virginia, New Hampshire and Pennsylvania

Pretty good guesses, although I doubt your native PA switches back.  I actually forgot that McCain did very well in western PA, yet still lost by 10 pts.  Unless the GOP nominee can break 25% in Philly, forget about it.

[Kevin]

Indiana, North Carolina, Florida, Ohio, Virginia, New Hampshire and Pennsylvania

Pretty good guesses, although I doubt your native PA switches back.  I actually forgot that McCain did very well in western PA, yet still lost by 10 pts.  Unless the GOP nominee can break 25% in Philly, forget about it.

I could see someone like Romney, Huntsman, or even Perry doing well in many of the counties of the Philly suburbs.

[anvi]

Rated from most likely to least likely in each section

Indiana = definite flip

North Carolina = likely flip
Ohio = likely flip
Virginia = possible flip
Florida = possible flip
New Hampshire = possible flip
Iowa = possible flip

Pennsylvania = unlikely flip

[Kevin]

Rated from most likely to least likely in each section

Indiana = definite flip

North Carolina = likely flip
Ohio = likely flip
Virginia = possible flip
Florida = possible flip
New Hampshire = possible flip
Iowa = possible flip

Pennsylvania = unlikely flip

What makes you classify Ohio as a likely flip? And I'd classify PA as possible also since I chose the states most likely to change parties. Hence why other states like MI, WI, etc aren't mentioned at the moment.

[Heimdal]

Of course it will all depend on our nominee. If we nominate Bachmann, then I will be surprised if even Indiana flips back.

With Romney or Huntsman I think Indiana and North Carolina are certan gains. We will obviously be competitive in Florida, Ohio and Virginia as well, with Florida most likely to return to us.
If the economy is still in the toilet, then we might be able to add Nevada, Colorado and New Hampshire to the list.

Iowa? Probably not.

[TheGlobalizer]

a generic mainstream challenger like Romney or Perry

Wait, what?

[Kevin]

a generic mainstream challenger like Romney or Perry

Wait, what?

Well mainstream compared to the rest of the field.

[TheGlobalizer]

a generic mainstream challenger like Romney or Perry

Wait, what?

Well mainstream compared to the rest of the field.

Um, no, not really.  Sh**, Ron Paul is starting to look mainstream compared to those bozos.

[pbrower2a]

Which states are most likely to flip to the Republicans should a generic mainstream challenger like Romney or Perry be nominated in 2012?

How is Rick Perry mainstream? Rudy Giuliani is mainstream. Mike Huckabee is mainstream. 

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We know little about Indiana except that Obama barely won it in what looks like freakish circumstances unlikely to be repeated. But that said, the demographics of Indiana suggest that it may be trending D as have its neighbors except for Kentucky. Indiana is Rustbelt, and a Republican nominee can lose this state. I can't imagine Indiana being more D than the national average.

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Polls in North Carolina show the state more sympathetic to President Obama than some that the President won by larger margins. How do you know that the Governor of Indiana is popular? The state has had protests against the Governor's policies, which just don't happen when the Governor is that popular.

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Look at the polls. The President is nearly even in both places, which at this stage (nobody can please more than half the public except in the aftermath of some huge achievement probably not of his doing) suggests that he will win. Sure there will be ups and downs, but we have seen both ups and downs.

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Check back shortly when approval ratings come for the two Republicans in Congress from New Hampshire and of the new Senator.

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It takes only 50% of the votes between the two main contenders to win any state... but Iowa shows no sign of going R.


For an approval rating between 40% and 47% at this stage, a good estimate of the vote share that the incumbent will get is 6% more. Governing and campaigning are two vastly-different critters. The President isn't campaigning now -- and we can all be glad of that.   He is a fine campaigner, and he will pull out the excellent GOTV apparatus a little more than a year from now.




  

 
[/quote]

[NHI]

Iowa, Pennsylvania, Ohio, North Carolina, Florida, New Hampshire, Indiana if Romney's the nominee, with Nevada and Colorado as a tossup.

[sg0508]

The interesting thing that I noticed about IN is that Coats won his Senate seat by a much, much smaller margin than many had predicted.  Some were predicting around a 20 pt win and yet he won just 53%, which is unusually low in IN for a big GOP year in a Republican-leaning state.

[pbrower2a]

Of those states that went from Dubya (or very barely Kerry) to Obama from 2004 to 2008...

Oregon -- it's Oregon. Republicans can't win this state except in a disaster.
Minnesota -- one of the states that swings least.
Michigan -- too many blacks to go Republican except in a disaster.
Pennsylvania. Always looks tempting, and usually disappoints Republicans.
New Hampshire -- Only for Romney, and only if he has a strong Favorite Son effect for someone who has never been an elected politician there.
Wisconsin. Current statewide Republicans are extremely unpopular -- and the Republican brand is damaged goods there for a very long time.

New Mexico. Demographics will hurt Republicans.
Iowa. Kerry was too effete for a state that voted for Dukakis in 1988.

Ohio. Wisconsin at a lower level.
Florida.  Demographics will hurt Republicans, as will Rick Scott.
Nevada. Republicans have too much baggage after Ensign. Besides, the Obama campaign will practically colonize the state with organizers who join the Nevada electorate as in 2008.
Colorado. Demographics will hurt Republicans.
Virginia. Republicans must abandon their anti-intellectualism to win much of the state's suburbs and big cities.
North Carolina. Shaky in 2008... but President Obama has made some gains.

Indiana. Pure mystery for now. Could effectively be traded for Georgia, Arizona, or Missouri.

 

[Torie]

Rated from most likely to least likely in each section

Indiana = definite flip

North Carolina = likely flip
Ohio = likely flip
Virginia = possible flip
Florida = possible flip
New Hampshire = possible flip
Iowa = possible flip

Pennsylvania = unlikely flip

What makes you classify Ohio as a likely flip? And I'd classify PA as possible also since I chose the states most likely to change parties. Hence why other states like MI, WI, etc aren't mentioned at the moment.

OH is distinctly more GOP than PA, and has been since rocks cooled. And Ohio has more of West Virginia in it (as it were), than PA does (including a lot of mountain Pubbies from Kentucky that live in the Cincinnati area, the one metro area where Jews tend to, or did, vote Pubbie).  And OH does not have large swaths of suburban areas appending a big liberal city trending Dem.  PA has the Philly suburbs. 

[anvi]

Yes, Ohio is more culturally conservative as a whole ("the bluest of the red states") than Pennsylvania ("the reddest of the blue states").  

In addition, at least at the moment, I'm looking at this map:

http://ohiolmi.com/laus/ColorRateMap.pdf

If you'll notice, Lucas County has over 9% unemployment, Cuyahoga over 8%, Ashtabula over 10%, Trumbbull over 9%, Summit over 8%, Stark over 9% and Mahoning over 9%.  Obama did really well in all of these counties in 2008, allowing him to win the state.  But, with depressed unemployment numbers like that, votes that allowed him to take the state in '08 could very well just not be there in 2012.  Democratic presidential candidates who win Ohio really need to rack up big numbers in these counties, making something that looks like a backwards "C" shape on the northeastern and eastern edge of the state (as Jay Cost called in in 2008), in order to win it.  I have grave doubts at the moment, given the unemployment numbers in that region, whether Obama can color that region deeply "D" enough to win Ohio again.  Note that Hamilton is also over 8% and Franklin over 9%.  Plus, the GOP operations in Ohio are going to be funded full-tilt next year.  

[exopolitician]

New Hampshire, Indiana, and Nevada. That order.

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

Indiana - Duh, do I even need to explain this one? It's an economically depressed, rust belt state that is prone to large swings. Romney is a poor candidate for Indiana but he's still guaranteed to win it. I'm not even going to talk about the other candidates' chances because they're all pygmies who aren't worth my time. Obama shouldn't waste his time contesting Indiana.

Ohio - Obama is doomed here, any weaknesses that he had here in 2008 will be magnified greatly in 2012. The only bright spot is that Romney is, yet again, a poor candidate for Ohio that will struggle to appeal to working class swing voters. Every metro area besides Columbus should swing against Obama in a big way.

North Carolina - Regardless of the state's rapid demographic shift towards the Democrats and solid block of Obama voters, it's likely to flip. Don't be surprised if it gives Obama a higher percentage of the vote than Ohio or even Pennsylvania. The economy here is stronger, and Obama's 2008 coalition is his sweet spot: African-Americans and highly educated white moderates/liberals. These are the pillars of Obama's coalition that have held up the best and that hold him in the highest regard.

New Hampshire - Romney is the perfect candidate for this state and Obama has lost most of his appeal with the quintessential NH swing voter. Against Perry, this state wouldn't even be in play but luckily for the GOP, Romney is a slam dunk here.

Pennsylvania - This state will surprise all and be extremely close thanks to the economic turmoil and discontent with Obama among the white working class. In the end, I have a hard time seeing it flip thanks to a strong turnout machine but things are looking poor for Obama here. It's always been a weak spot for him and will continue to be one. Romney is not an ideal candidate but would perform well in Philly's suburbs.

Something like that and yes I'm sticking with my idea that Pennsylvania is more likely to flip than Florida. Obama can run on saving Medicare in Florida and as long as Romney doesn't have Rubio as a VP, I can conceivably see Obama improving his position with Cubans. I think the Obama campaign is astute enough to copy Stephen Harper and whore himself out to immigrant communities for votes. Iowa's economy is strong, everything that I've said in regards to North Carolina applies doubly to Virginia at this point, Obama can run on saving the auto companies in Michigan, Colorado's character as a state is also shifting rapidly like Virginia/North Carolina etc.

Anyone want to dispute my ideas? Have at them.

[Keystone Phil]

Indiana, North Carolina, Florida, Ohio, Virginia, New Hampshire and Pennsylvania

Pretty good guesses, although I doubt your native PA switches back.  I actually forgot that McCain did very well in western PA, yet still lost by 10 pts.  Unless the GOP nominee can break 25% in Philly, forget about it.

We just need to hit 20% here and the Dems will struggle to hold the state especially since Obama won't do as well in the suburbs and the Lehigh Valley this time around.

[DrScholl]

Only Indiana is a likely flip, everything else is no better than toss-up.

[tpfkaw]

If we're doing it by "likelihood of flipping..."

Indiana
North Carolina
Virginia
New Hampshire
Florida
Ohio
Iowa
Colorado
Pennsylvania
Nevada
Wisconsin
Minnesota
Michigan
New Mexico
Oregon
Maine
New Jersey
Washington (would be before NJ but for King County shenanigans)
Connecticut
Delaware
Massachusetts
California
New York
Rhode Island
Illinois
Vermont
Maryland
Hawaii
DC

Red marks the "tipping point" - if the Republican is winning Connecticut it's most likely a 48-50 state landslide due to economic collapse and/or Watergate-scale scandal.

[pbrower2a]

Let's deal with one state and one candidate: Florida with Bachmann.

One ordinarily expects (at least) Cuban-Americans to vote for just any Republican -- but the Obama campaign can associate Michelle Bachmann with contempt for human rights, a salient feature of someone whom Cuban-Americans have cause to hate:

FIDEL CASTRO

[tmthforu94]

I think Nevada is much higher on the list to flip, probably between Ohio and Iowa. The economy there is in the tanks, Obama has had horrible approvals for a state he carried so easily in 2008, and Romney is a pretty good fit for the state as a nominee, and has led Obama in polling there.

[bullmoose88]

OH is distinctly more GOP than PA, and has been since rocks cooled. And Ohio has more of West Virginia in it (as it were), than PA does (including a lot of mountain Pubbies from Kentucky that live in the Cincinnati area, the one metro area where Jews tend to, or did, vote Pubbie).  And OH does not have large swaths of suburban areas appending a big liberal city trending Dem.  PA has the Philly suburbs. 

Which is funny, since the Philly Burbs used to be one of the big/essential building blocks to a Republican's vote in the commonwealth up until about 1988-1992.

The Republicans have a fair shot of at least capturing a couple of the suburban counties...its not a more likely than not situation...but entirely feasible that the Reps could recapture Chester Co, and possibly Bucks County.  Those two alone are unlikely to give them the commonwealth...unless they're also indicative of a resurgence in the rest of the burbs (and the trend out west has held up).

Bucks is far more republican friendly than either Montco or Delaware county, the latter being one of the traditional "former" homes of Republicanism in PA.