Which state is more likely to vote Republican in 2012/the future?

[tpfkaw]

Definitely Vermont.

[Napoleon]

Vermont.

[Hotblack Desiato]

Why Vermont?

[Napoleon]

Why Vermont?

It isn't full of African-American voters and government employees like Maryland is. Maryland also lacks Vermont's Republican tradition.

[Hotblack Desiato]

Why Vermont?

It isn't full of African-American voters and government employees like Maryland is. Maryland also lacks Vermont's Republican tradition.

Vermont's white voters are pretty socially liberal, though. They'd be turned off by our GOP. If we're talking our current GOP, I think neither are likely to go GOP, but Vermont is marginally less likely.

[Zarn]

Might take a libertarianish candidate to have a chance with Vermont... but even then they may be too fiscally liberal.

[Napoleon]

Why Vermont?

It isn't full of African-American voters and government employees like Maryland is. Maryland also lacks Vermont's Republican tradition.

Vermont's white voters are pretty socially liberal, though. They'd be turned off by our GOP. If we're talking our current GOP, I think neither are likely to go GOP, but Vermont is marginally less likely.

Vermont isn't as partisan Democratic, even Sanders is an independent. Vermont's rural whites are less solid for Democrats than the blacks and federal employees are. Partisan registration and voting habits would support this.

[Hotblack Desiato]

Why Vermont?

It isn't full of African-American voters and government employees like Maryland is. Maryland also lacks Vermont's Republican tradition.

Vermont's white voters are pretty socially liberal, though. They'd be turned off by our GOP. If we're talking our current GOP, I think neither are likely to go GOP, but Vermont is marginally less likely.

Vermont isn't as partisan Democratic, even Sanders is an independent. Vermont's rural whites are less solid for Democrats than the blacks and federal employees are. Partisan registration and voting habits would support this.

I will concede that, but I feel the current GOP's attachment to the religious right and it's southern electoral core aren't exactly attractive to Vermont voters.

Remember that historically the pattern for the US has been for one party to have it's core in new england/the new england settled areas and the other to be centered in the south so we're talking long-established divisions here.

[bonncaruso]

Neither.

Vermont has made the most astonishing ideological shift of ANY state in the nation.
From 1856-1960, it went 27 times in a row for the GOP, and with crushing margins.

The shift to the Democratic party could already clearly be seen in 1988, when in a two man race between Bush 41 and Dukakis, the GOP only carried this state by +3.52%, the smallest winning percentage in a two man race in the history of this state.

Yes, there is a certain rebellious edge to this state: John Anderson got 14.90% of the vote in 1980, Perot got 22.78% in 1992.

But since 1992, this state has gone reliably democratic and Obama's +37.01% blowout margin from 2008 set a democratic electoral record.

This state wants single-payer health care. It is arguably the most liberal state (excluding DC) in the continental USA.

I see no tendency in this state of returning to the Republican party.

It will take a national republican landslide of +20% or more to flip this state, if at all.


MARYLAND: -large black population, large hispanic population, large asian contingent (most do not know this). And a very democratic voting history: 11 of the last 14 cycles, since 1960, democratic. Obama's 2008 margin was the fourth largest in history for any democratic candidate, behind Horatio Seymour (1888),  Lyndon Johnson (1964) and FDR (1932). Actually, his margin of +25.44% is practically identisch to FDR's +25.46% in 1932. Obama more than doubled Kerry's margin from 2008. This state is not going to be going for the GOP anytime in the next 50 years, to be sure.

So, the real answer is that the wrong states were put up for a choice in this poll.

[TheGlobalizer]

VT.  I'm a native Marylander and it won't go GOP nationally for 50 years, barring dead girl / live boy.