Bachmann wins Iowa straw poll

[CARLHAYDEN]

It seems to me that the key question is which candidate "shows" (places third in the Ames straw poll).

Bachmann is likely to win the contest.

Romney is likely to place.

Either Paul or Perry (write-in) is likely to show.

If Paul comes in third (or better), then that will be an indication his campaign has been seriously underestimated by the supposed experts, whereas if Perry places in a write-in, he is very likely to enter the race and win the nomination.

I am amazed how badly Pawlenty has done.  If he has any brains he will fold-up his Presidential campaign post Ames, and consider running for the Senate.

Cain has been impressive for a candidate without experience in major public elective office, but, he would be well advised to pack it in before he becomes a joke.

Santorum should take the advice of Pennsylvania Republicans, give up his quest for the Presidency, and run for the Senate.

Gingrich should simply quit, and go on a long cruise.

McCotter has had his fifteen seconds of fame, now he can retire to obscurity from whence he came.

Huntsman can simply crawl back to Obama.

[Tender Branson]

Here´s my early prediction:

24% Bachmann
14% Paul
13% Pawlenty
11% Perry
  9% Romney
  8% Cain
  7% Gingrich
  6% Santorum
  4% Palin
  1% Giuliani
  1% Huntsman
  1% Johnson
<1% McCotter
<1% Moore
<1% Roemer

Turnout: about 20.000 people will vote in the Straw Poll.

[RogueBeaver]

1) Paul isn't placing second.

2) Gingrich and Santorum aren't cracking 5%.

3) Giuliani, Perry and Palin aren't on the ballot.

[Yelnoc]

1) Paul isn't placing second.

2) Gingrich and Santorum aren't cracking 5%.

3) Giuliani, Perry and Palin aren't on the ballot.

1) You think he will win?
2) Agreed on Gingrich, though Santorum may surprise us.  He basically lives there, after all.
3) Write-ins are accepted this year.

[RogueBeaver]

1) I don't think Paul is winning anything (apart from the CPAC fluke) other than Internet polls.

2) So did Chris Dodd and Silky Pony (aka Edwards) in 2008.

3) Didn't know that.

[CatoMinor]

1) I don't think Paul is winning anything (apart from the CPAC fluke) other than Internet polls.

2 flukes 2 years in a row?

Trust me, he is running a serious campaign to win this straw poll. They are making calls all over to identify supporters and have invested into buses to get them from every county in the state to show up. Just the other day the GOP Chairman of Story county (the location of Ames) endorsed Paul which will help as well. Plus it is not like he is polling at 1% or 2%, he is up there with the rest them in a lot of polls. I wouldn't be so quick to assume he won't win.

[NHI]

Top Three:
Bachmann: 25%
Romney:     20%
Paul:           17%

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

1) I don't think Paul is winning anything (apart from the CPAC fluke) other than Internet polls.

2 flukes 2 years in a row?

Trust me, he is running a serious campaign to win this straw poll. They are making calls all over to identify supporters and have invested into buses to get them from every county in the state to show up. Just the other day the GOP Chairman of Story county (the location of Ames) endorsed Paul which will help as well. Plus it is not like he is polling at 1% or 2%, he is up there with the rest them in a lot of polls. I wouldn't be so quick to assume he won't win.

Ron Paul has a strong chance of winning, and stronger chance of second place, and at least, guarenteed 3rd.

[Mr. Morden]

Is McCotter actually not invited to the debate after all?

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0811/60630.html

[Mr. Morden]

First Read looks at each candidate's Straw Poll "ground game":

http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/_news/2011/08/04/7253306-the-ground-game-for-the-upcoming-ames-straw-poll

[Zarn]

1) I don't think Paul is winning anything (apart from the CPAC fluke) other than Internet polls.

2 flukes 2 years in a row?

Trust me, he is running a serious campaign to win this straw poll. They are making calls all over to identify supporters and have invested into buses to get them from every county in the state to show up. Just the other day the GOP Chairman of Story county (the location of Ames) endorsed Paul which will help as well. Plus it is not like he is polling at 1% or 2%, he is up there with the rest them in a lot of polls. I wouldn't be so quick to assume he won't win.

Ron Paul has a strong chance of winning, and stronger chance of second place, and at least, guarenteed 3rd.

I wouldn't bother. He already made up his mind.

[California8429]

28% Bachmann
20% Paul
16% Cain
  15% Pawlenty
  5% Santorum
  5% Perry
  5% Romney
  4% Gingrich
  1% Huntsman
  1% McCotter

I don't think anyone outside of Bachmann, Paul, T-Paw, and Cain will do well or place well. If they do it could be a game changer

[Simfan34]

What if Huntsman does well in the debate?

[Yelnoc]

What if Huntsman does well in the debate?

He might gain a little, but anybody that scores above 10% will have invested time into Iowa and made sure to bus in a number of delegates.  The chances of Huntsman doing that is effectively nil.

[Tender Branson]

More about the rules and conducting of the poll:

To ensure only Iowans participate in the 2011 Iowa Straw Poll next Saturday, voters must bring a photo ID.

And to prevent double voting, voters will mark their index finger with indelible ink after casting their ballots, Iowa GOP Chairman Matt Strawn said Friday.

Those eligible are registered voters or Iowans who will be 18 years old on or before Nov. 6, 2012, Strawn said in a written statement.

The allowable IDs are a current and valid Iowa driver’s license or non-operator ID, a military ID or a student photo ID from an Iowa college or university.

In official elections in Iowa, the state doesn’t require photo identification – a law Republicans unsuccessfully tried to change during this year’s now-finished legislative session.

Voting for the straw poll – a party function, not a state function – will take place at the Iowa State University campus in both Hilton Coliseum (north side entrance) and the Scheman Building (south side entrance) from 10 a.m. to 4 p.m. on Aug. 13.

Strawn in a written statement said election procedures were designed with Secretary of State Matt Schultz and Story County Auditor Lucy Martin to withstand “the highest level of scrutiny.”

Here are some of his other points:

* Voting equipment for the straw poll was rented from the Story County Auditor’s office and is the identical equipment used in state and municipal elections. (All equipment was paid for by the Iowa GOP with no taxpayer expense.)

* Candidates will be listed on the voting ballot in randomized, rotating order according to last name.

* Write-in ballots will be tabulated in compliance with Iowa Code and will be reported individually by volunteers from the Secretary of State’s office. All results will be certified by the secretary of state.

* Campaigns who reserved space at the straw poll are allowed to have one representative to observe the voting process per voting location, and up to two representatives to observe the tallying process.

* In addition to Schultz and Martin, members of the Secretary of State’s office and county auditors from across the state will help administer and oversee the election.

http://caucuses.desmoinesregister.com/2011/08/06/all-iowa-voters-can-weigh-in-at-next-saturdays-straw-poll-just-bring-photo-id/

[AUH2O Libertarian]

I'll take a stab at the top 3:

T1) Bachmann: ~29%
T2)Paul: ~28%
T3)Perry Write In: ~12%
T3)Pawlenty: ~12%

[RogueBeaver]

I'll take a stab at the top 3:

T1) Bachmann: ~29%
T2)Paul: ~28%
T3)Perry Write In: ~12%
T3)Pawlenty: ~12%

I highly doubt Paul's doing that well, but another part of me hopes he outpolls some of the more mainstream white-noisers in order to trigger a couple of dropouts.

[Bacon King]

my prediction:

Bachmann: 21%
McCotter: 17%
Paul: 17%
Perry (write-in): 12%
Pawlenty: 11%
Cain: 10%
Romney: 7%
Santorum: 3%
Gingrich/Huntsman/others: 2%

[Mr. Morden]

my prediction:

Bachmann: 21%
McCotter: 17%
Paul: 17%
Perry (write-in): 12%
Pawlenty: 11%
Cain: 10%
Romney: 7%
Santorum: 3%
Gingrich/Huntsman/others: 2%

What's the deal with that, dude?

[Bacon King]

my prediction:

Bachmann: 21%
McCotter: 17%
Paul: 17%
Perry (write-in): 12%
Pawlenty: 11%
Cain: 10%
Romney: 7%
Santorum: 3%
Gingrich/Huntsman/others: 2%

What's the deal with that, dude?

I don't really know how things are on the ground in Iowa, of course, but ever since I read about how a McCotter representative strolled in during the Ames booth auctions and dropped down some huge money, I've been assuming that his campaign is pushing hard for a good result here. It wouldn't be hard for him to portray himself as "the candidate everyone's been waiting for", especially considering it'll be the first time most have heard of him and they'll be (presumably) learning about him from his campaign's prime set-up at the Straw Poll itself. It'll be right on track for him to be the next "GOP Flavor of the Month", too.

It's honestly more of a hunch than anything, yeah, but it makes sense to me at least.

[Meeker]

Every campaign is pushing hard for a good result here (except Romney and Gingrich of course). McCotter's campaign in Ames is going to be a ghost compared to Paul, Pawlenty and Bachmann's.

[California8429]

Every campaign is pushing hard for a good result here (except Romney and Gingrich of course). McCotter's campaign in Ames is going to be a ghost compared to Paul, Pawlenty and Bachmann's.

Yet it's his ONLY hope. The others can still win Iowa one way or another, T-Paw and Cain as well

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

The winner will be Paul or Bachmann. Pawlenty might be dumping everything into winning, but his actual support and popularity is too low for a victory. Everyone else's contributions to winning are dwarfed by the aforementioned three.

Paul will probably be the winner between him and Bachmann, and if Pawlenty is incredibly lucky he might beat Bachmann to second, which would destroy her campaign. Everyone below third is unlikely to gain much, and some will probably fall apart at doing poorly.

Bachmann has short term popularity and fame, which is a bonus, while Pawlenty has organization and is funneling cash into winning. Paul has both a highly motivated grassroots movement and a very organized central organization for winning. Ron Paul has a way of winning straw polls, and he is putting everything into it this time.

[Mr. Morden]

It's OK to have this one thread for both the debate and straw poll for now, but I'm thinking of doing separate threads later in the week.  Here's my tentative idea:

-On Thursday evening, I'll start an "Iowa debate live commentary thread" for the debate, while leaving this thread open for continued discussion of the straw poll.

-On Saturday morning, lock this thread and start a fresh "Iowa straw poll live commentary thread", for anyone who wants to watch all of the candidates' speeches throughout the day, leading up to the straw poll results.

If anyone objects to that, let me know.

[Mr. Morden]

Pawlenty's going hunting for votes.  But pulling the trigger may be a challenge with those mittens.  (Which is kind of like a metaphor, as one of Pawlenty's rivals is nicknamed "Mittens".)