Next seat change by state

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

California +1, maybe +2 in 2010
Texas +3, maybe +2 in 2010
New York -1, maybe -2 in 2010
Florida +2 in 2010
Illinois -1, maybe 0 in 2010
Pennsylvania -1, maybe -2 in 2010
Ohio -2 in 2010
Michigan 0, maybe -1 in 2010
Georgia +1, maybe 0 in 2010
New Jersey lose a seat in 20 years
North Carolina gain a seat in 30 years
Virginia, gain a seat in 20 years
Massachusetts -1 in 2010
Indiania lose a seat in 30 years
Washington gain a seat in 30 years
Tennessee lose a seat in 20 years
Missouri -1 in 2010
Arizona +1 in 2010
Maryland gain a seat in 30 years
Wisconsin lose a seat in 30 years
Minnesota 0, maybe -1 in 2010
Colorado gain a seat in 30 years
Alabama -1, maybe 0 in 2010
Lousiana -1 in 2010
South Carolina lose a seat sometime next century
Kentucky lose a seat in 30 years
Oregon gain a seat in 30 years
Oklahoma lose a seat in 30 years
Connecticut lose a seat in 50 years
Iowa -1 in 2010
Mississippi lose a seat in 40 years
Arkansas lose a seat in 40 years
Kansas lose a seat in 30 years
Utah +1 in 2010
Nevada +1 in 2010
New Mexico lose a seat in 60 years
West Virginia 0, maybe -1 in 2010
Nebraska 0, maybe -1 in 2010
Idaho gain a seat in 50 years
Maine lose a seat in 60 years
New Hampshire gain a seat in 200 years
Hawaii 4 EV for life
Rhode Island lose a seat in 40 years
Montana 3 EV for life
Deleware gain a seat in 90 years
South Dakota 3 EV for life
Alaska 3 EV for life
North Dakota 3 EV for life
Vermont 3 EV for life
Wyoming 3 EV for life

[zorkpolitics]

Interestingly, the 2010 census will likely lead to a net shift of 4 EV from Blue to Red states, making it possible for a Republican to win without Ohio in 2012

[7,052,770]

I doubt we'll lose a seat...we'll probably gain one in the next 20-30 years.

[Alcon]

What projection do you use here? MT could easily gain a seat from what I hear.

[jimrtex]

What projection do you use here? MT could easily gain a seat from what I hear.

To gain representation, the population in a state has to increase faster than the country as a whole.  Montana isn't.  So while it is close to a second seat it is losing ground.

The states that are gaining ground are 10 western states (the 9 west of ID-UT-AZ plus Colorado; the 7 South Atlantic states from Delaware to Florida; Texas; and New Hampshire.

[muon2]

What projection do you use here? MT could easily gain a seat from what I hear.

To gain representation, the population in a state has to increase faster than the country as a whole.  Montana isn't.  So while it is close to a second seat it is losing ground.

I agree. MT has an estimated annual growth rate of 0.4% since the census compared to a 1.0% national rate. MT was close in 2000 for a second seat but is well behind for a second seat in the projections for 2010.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

The following states have growth rates estimated at greater than the national average:

AZ 2.6%
CA 1.4%
CO 1.7%
DE 1.2%
(DC 2.3%)
FL 1.9%
GA 1.8%
ID 1.6%
MD 1.2%
NV 3.5%
NH 1.2%
NC 1.3%
OR 1.2%
TX 1.8%
UT 1.5%
VA 1.2%
WA 1.1%

Those with growth rates less than half the national average:

AL 0.3%
IA 0.1%
KS 0.3%
KY 0.2%
LA 0.1%
MA 0.4%
MI 0.4%
NY 0.3%
ND -0.5% (a shrinking state)
OH 0.2%
SD 0.3%
WV -0.1% (another shrinking state)
WY 0.4%

[Gustaf]

Interestingly, the 2010 census will likely lead to a net shift of 4 EV from Blue to Red states, making it possible for a Republican to win without Ohio in 2012

On the other hand I think Nevada and Colorado will be basically Democratic by then and Florida might be too. Since most of the growth we're talking about is in those states, it won't be as neat as you'd like it to be.